Xi Jinping Says China’s Economy Is on Track to Meet 5% Growth Target in 2025
China’s economy is poised to achieve its around 5 percent growth target in 2025, President Xi Jinping said, projecting confidence in the country’s resilience despite mounting domestic and global challenges. Speaking at an annual gathering of China’s top political advisory body, Xi described 2025 as an “extraordinary year” in which the world’s second-largest economy continued to advance under pressure.
According to China’s official Xinhua News Agency, Xi told the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) that the country’s gross domestic product is expected to expand by about 5 percent, placing China among the fastest-growing major economies globally.
“China’s economy is forging ahead under pressure, moving toward innovation and quality, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality,” Xi said. “The growth rate is expected to reach around 5%, continuing to rank high among the world’s major economies.”
The remarks come at a time when investors and policymakers are closely watching China’s growth trajectory, as the country navigates slowing domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn, and geopolitical headwinds.
Exports and Manufacturing Drive Growth Momentum in 2025
China’s economic performance in 2025 has been underpinned largely by robust exports and resilient manufacturing activity, which helped keep growth on track without the need for aggressive new stimulus measures. Strong overseas demand, particularly for higher-value manufactured goods, has supported industrial output and export earnings.
Manufacturers have increasingly moved up the value chain, focusing on advanced technologies, electric vehicles, renewable energy equipment, and high-end machinery. This shift has helped offset weakness in traditional growth drivers such as real estate and heavy infrastructure investment.
Economists say this transition reflects Beijing’s longer-term strategy to rebalance the economy away from debt-fuelled construction toward innovation-led and productivity-driven growth.
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Investment Weakness and Property Slump Remain Key Challenges
Despite the headline growth optimism, underlying data points to significant structural challenges. Fixed-asset investment is on track for its first annual contraction since 1998, highlighting subdued corporate and private-sector confidence.
At the same time, the property sector continues to weigh heavily on the economy. New home prices declined further in November, extending a multi-year downturn triggered by developer defaults, weak buyer sentiment, and excess housing supply.
Retail consumption has also struggled to regain momentum. Growth in retail sales has slowed to its weakest pace outside the pandemic period, reflecting cautious household spending amid income uncertainty and falling property values.
An analyst at a Beijing-based research firm said, “China is meeting its growth target, but the composition of growth matters. Exports are doing the heavy lifting, while domestic demand remains fragile.”
Xi Emphasises Quality Over Speed of Economic Growth
President Xi has increasingly signalled a tolerance for slower growth in certain regions, underscoring a policy shift that prioritises economic quality, sustainability, and financial stability over headline expansion numbers.
He has previously warned against “reckless” investment projects and excessive reliance on debt-driven growth, especially at the local government level. This stance reflects concerns about rising leverage, inefficient capital allocation, and long-term financial risks.
Policy priorities highlighted by the leadership include:
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Advancing innovation and high-tech manufacturing
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Strengthening supply-chain self-reliance
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Managing risks in the property and financial sectors
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Promoting balanced regional development
“China should crack down on reckless projects,” Xi said earlier, reinforcing his message that growth should be durable and high-quality rather than rapid and unstable.
Limited Stimulus Signals Confidence but Raises Questions
Unlike previous slowdowns, Beijing has refrained from rolling out large-scale stimulus packages in 2025. While targeted measures have been introduced to support specific sectors, authorities have largely avoided broad-based credit easing or massive infrastructure spending.
This restrained approach suggests confidence in the economy’s underlying resilience but has also raised questions among investors about the strength of domestic demand recovery. Some economists argue that without stronger consumption support, growth could become increasingly reliant on external demand.
“Exports can’t be the sole engine forever,” said a regional economist. “Sustained growth will ultimately require a healthier consumer sector and a stabilised property market.”
Global Context: China’s Growth Still Stands Out
Even at around 5 percent, China’s growth rate remains high compared with other major economies facing slowing activity and tighter financial conditions. For global investors, this reinforces China’s role as a key driver of regional and global growth, particularly in Asia.
However, geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and shifting supply chains continue to shape the external environment. How China balances openness with self-reliance will be critical in determining growth beyond 2025.
Investor Takeaway: Stability With Structural Trade-Offs
Xi Jinping’s declaration that China is set to meet its 5 percent growth target in 2025 provides reassurance about near-term economic stability. Strong exports and industrial upgrading have helped the economy weather domestic headwinds without heavy stimulus.
At the same time, persistent weakness in investment, consumption, and property highlights the trade-offs of China’s structural transition. For investors, the message is clear: China’s growth story is evolving, with quality, resilience, and innovation taking precedence over breakneck expansion.
As one market observer summed it up, “China may be growing a little slower than before, but it is growing differently—and that shift will define the next phase of its economic journey.”
