Government Bonds Rally Amid Central Bank’s Liquidity Boost
Indian government bonds witnessed a sharp rally on April 2, 2025, as investors welcomed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) surprise announcement of a large-scale debt purchase plan. The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell to a three-year low, closing at 6.4806%, a sharp decline from the previous close of 6.5823%. This marks the biggest single-day drop in bond yields since May 2023, underscoring the market’s strong positive reaction to the central bank’s liquidity injection.
The RBI announced its plan to purchase ₹800 billion ($9.3 billion) worth of government bonds in four tranches of ₹200 billion each. The first tranche of bond purchases is set to commence on April 4, fueling expectations of further easing measures in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 9.
10-year bond yield falls to 6.4806%, marking a three-year low.
Biggest one-day yield drop since May 2023, signaling strong investor confidence.
RBI announces ₹800 billion debt purchase in four phases, starting April 4.
Central Bank’s Policy Stance Sparks Speculation of Rate Cut
Market participants were caught off guard by the RBI’s decision to extend its Open Market Operations (OMO) into April, suggesting a prolonged effort to maintain surplus liquidity in the banking system. Analysts believe this move sets the stage for a potential 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, bringing the repo rate down to 6% from the current 6.25%.
“The RBI surprised the market with another round of bond purchases, clearly signaling a preference for surplus liquidity to facilitate policy transmission. Given this stance, we anticipate a 25bps cut in the repo rate along with a shift to an accommodative stance at the April policy meeting,” said Radhika Rao, Executive Director and Senior Economist at DBS Bank.
With the central bank aiming to enhance liquidity and support economic growth, bond markets have reacted with a sharp rally, pushing down yields and boosting investor sentiment.
RBI’s OMO signals a strong commitment to maintaining liquidity surplus.
Economists now expect a 25bps repo rate cut in the April policy meeting.
Shift towards an accommodative stance could further support bond prices.
Liquidity Conditions Improve as RBI Injects Over ₹5 Trillion Since January
India’s banking system liquidity surged to a four-month high on April 2, after experiencing a persistent liquidity deficit since mid-December. The RBI has injected over ₹5 trillion ($58 billion) into the financial system between January and March 2025, helping ease liquidity constraints and paving the way for improved monetary policy transmission.
With additional bond purchases in April, the surplus liquidity is expected to provide a strong boost to the banking sector, ensuring sufficient funds for credit expansion and economic growth. This move aligns with the RBI’s broader strategy of supporting economic recovery while keeping borrowing costs low.
The central bank is set to meet financial market participants on April 3 to discuss its liquidity management framework, with potential announcements expected alongside the April 9 monetary policy decision.
Banking system liquidity reaches a four-month high after prolonged deficit.
RBI has infused over ₹5 trillion in liquidity since January 2025.
Upcoming discussions on liquidity management could shape future policy direction.
Global Factors in Focus: U.S. Tariffs Could Impact Emerging Market Flows
Despite the bond market’s bullish momentum, global risks remain on the radar of traders. Investors are closely watching for U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, scheduled for 2000 GMT on April 2. Any escalation in trade tensions could trigger risk-off sentiment, potentially leading to capital outflows from emerging markets, including India.
While India’s strong liquidity support from the RBI has boosted domestic market sentiment, any negative external shocks—such as rising global interest rates or increased geopolitical risks—could pose challenges for foreign portfolio investments (FPI) in Indian bonds.
U.S. President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement could influence global markets.
Trade tensions may impact capital flows into emerging markets.
Indian bonds remain attractive amid strong domestic liquidity support.
