Apple continues to defy the broader industry slowdown in India’s smartphone market, posting resilient shipment numbers even as record-breaking heatwaves and weak consumer sentiment suppress overall demand. According to exclusive IDC data shared with Moneycontrol, Apple is poised to ship 2.8 million iPhones in the April–June quarter of 2025, reflecting over 20% year-on-year growth, despite the overall market projecting a 3–4% decline in Q2 shipments due to extreme weather and seasonal softness. This surge strengthens Apple’s foothold in India and reaffirms its status among the country’s top five smartphone brands.

Contents

Apple Outshines Peers in Declining Smartphone Market Heatwave, Inflation, and Seasonality Drag Down Overall Sales Apple, Motorola Outperform as Brands Double Down on Offline Retail Global and Domestic Outlook Revised Amid Tariff and Demand Pressures

Highlights:

Apple is set to ship 2.8 million iPhones in Q2 2025, growing over 20% YoY.
Overall smartphone market expected to drop 3–4% due to heatwave, seasonal slowdown.
Apple stands out among top brands with Motorola as the only others showing positive YoY growth.
Strong demand for iPhones persists despite weak footfall and low consumer sentiment.

Apple Outshines Peers in Declining Smartphone Market

India’s smartphone market, which recorded 32 million units shipped in Q1 2025 (a 6% YoY decline), continues to reel under pressure as Q2 forecasts suggest a further dip to 33–34 million units, down from the same period last year. Intense heatwaves sweeping through northern and central India have significantly curtailed in-store visits, a key channel for smartphone sales. Yet, Apple appears largely insulated from the slump, driven by resilient demand for premium models, increased financing availability, and attractive offline offers.

Apple’s continued double-digit shipment growth sharply contrasts with Android OEMs, which are expected to see a 5%+ YoY decline in Q2. According to IDC Research Manager Upasna Joshi, “Customer sentiment remains low, and retail foot traffic has dropped, but iPhones are still seeing strong traction, largely thanks to brand loyalty, financing options, and in-store promotion strategies.”

Highlights:

Android brands see over 5% YoY decline while iPhone demand grows.
Apple benefits from strong offline channel investments and brand pull.
Overall consumer sentiment remains subdued amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Heatwave, Inflation, and Seasonality Drag Down Overall Sales

The Indian smartphone sector’s Q2 slump is being attributed to a combination of scorching heat, persistent inflation, and a seasonal consumer spending lull. Retailers report a sharp drop in store visits, particularly in northern India, while online sales have also seen diminished momentum due to weak confidence and higher discretionary caution. This downbeat trend is expected to continue until the festive season in Q4, when demand traditionally rebounds.

According to IDC’s revised 2025 market outlook, India’s smartphone shipments are expected to decline to 145–147 million units, compared to 151 million in 2024 — a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts of marginal growth. The contraction comes after two years of expansion and reflects deeper macroeconomic anxieties and deteriorating purchasing power in key consumer segments.

Highlights:

2025 smartphone shipments expected to fall 3–4% YoY to 145–147 million units.
Weak consumer confidence and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.
Seasonal trends offer no relief; only festive season may offer a rebound.
Retailers confirm declining store traffic and net income pressures.

Apple, Motorola Outperform as Brands Double Down on Offline Retail

In a market where even leading Android brands are struggling to maintain momentum, Apple and Motorola are the only two brands posting significant year-on-year shipment gains. Apple’s performance is largely attributed to its expanding offline footprint, increased focus on smaller cities, aggressive retailer partnerships, and widespread promotional campaigns.

Smartphone companies are strengthening in-store engagement, increasing the number of retail promoters, and offering deeper in-store discounts to attract foot traffic. Despite the rise of online commerce, offline channels are expected to grow modestly in 2025, while online shipment share may drop to 42–44%, down from 49% in 2024.

“Brands are betting on deeper offline penetration via omnichannel strategies,” said Joshi, adding that this shift favors Apple’s retail-centric model. iPhones, with their premium perception and better margin structure, are also becoming the product of choice for retailers aiming to preserve profitability amid declining sales.

Highlights:

Offline channels projected to grow moderately as online share dips to 42–44%.
Apple benefits from offline push and stronger channel partner engagement.
Retailers shift focus to iPhones to boost margins amid overall sales decline.
Motorola joins Apple as top YoY growth performer in Q2 2025.

Global and Domestic Outlook Revised Amid Tariff and Demand Pressures

India’s slowing momentum is not an isolated phenomenon. Counterpoint Research has recently cut its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 from 4.2% to just 1.9%, citing renewed geopolitical concerns, especially around US tariff uncertainty. India’s own forecast has been downgraded to 2% growth — a far cry from the robust high-single-digit expectations at the start of the year.

While Apple appears resilient in India, the larger market context remains fraught with uncertainty. Rising unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and inflation are expected to keep discretionary purchases under pressure for much of 2025. Even aggressive discounting strategies across Android OEMs haven’t reversed the sentiment slide.

For now, Apple’s ability to defy gravity stems from its premium product positioning, strong brand value, and effective offline retail strategies, but the broader market weakness poses ongoing challenges for all players heading into the second half of the year.

Highlights:

Counterpoint revises global 2025 growth to 1.9% from 4.2%.
India’s shipment growth forecast now just 2% for 2025.
Tariff fears and economic stressors dampen global sentiment.
Apple’s brand strength shields it in premium segment amid macro slowdown.
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