After a muted Samvat 2081, analysts anticipate a steadier phase for Indian equities, supported by policy continuity, improving earnings, and easing global headwinds.
The Indian stock market enters Samvat 2082 — the traditional new year for equity investors — with a tone of cautious optimism. Despite persistent foreign selling, elevated valuations, and muted corporate earnings, domestic equities showcased remarkable resilience in Samvat 2081, largely supported by robust retail and institutional inflows.
According to market data, since last Diwali, the Sensex rose 3.3 percent while the Nifty gained 3.9 percent, marking their slowest annual advance in three years. Broader indices lagged, with the BSE MidCap slipping 0.1 percent and the SmallCap index declining 4.3 percent — the first drop in six years.
Domestic Flows Shield Markets from Global Volatility
Heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows during the year were offset by strong domestic participation. Domestic investors poured ₹5.8 lakh crore into equities, cushioning the impact of global volatility. Analysts note that India’s policy consistency, resilient banking system, and structural growth story helped sustain investor confidence despite global headwinds.
Globally, equities outperformed on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, easing trade tensions, and expectations of US Fed rate cuts. The S&P 500 gained 14%, Nasdaq surged 23%, and Dow Jones rose 7%, while Asian peers like Shanghai (+22%), Hang Seng (+32%), and Nikkei (+14%) recorded strong double-digit gains.
Also Read : FIIs Turn Net Buyers, Pour Over Rs. 3,000 Crore Into Indian Equities in Seven Sessions
Kotak Securities: Earnings Revival, But Valuations Could Limit Upside
Kotak Securities projects earnings stability after prolonged downgrades, forecasting 18% Nifty 50 earnings growth in FY27. The brokerage estimates earnings per share (EPS) to rise to ₹1,297 in FY27 and ₹1,487 in FY28.
While Kotak expects policy stability and macro strength to underpin markets, it also warns that high valuations and external uncertainties could limit short-term returns. “The macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable, but valuation compression could temper gains,” the brokerage noted, predicting modest returns over the next 12–15 months.
Nuvama Research: Global Rate Cuts and Domestic Demand to Support Growth
Nuvama Research expects the global rate-cut cycle to accelerate as both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are likely to ease policy through FY26. The RBI, too, may follow with calibrated cuts as inflation stays within the 2–6% range.
The brokerage foresees strong earnings visibility, driven by credit expansion, rising manufacturing momentum, and infrastructure spending. With valuations hovering at 19–20 times forward Nifty earnings, Nuvama considers markets fairly valued, though it expects mid- and small-cap consolidation after a multi-year rally.
“India’s policy stability, healthy banking system, and robust domestic demand support a constructive medium-term outlook,” Nuvama said in its Samvat 2082 report.
HDFC Securities: US-China Tensions a Key Global Risk
HDFC Securities cautions that escalating US–China tensions could disrupt global trade flows and commodity prices. With Washington proposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 2025, and Beijing expected to retaliate, analysts foresee persistent supply chain uncertainty through 2026.
Amid stretched valuations, HDFC expects stock-specific opportunities, particularly in financials, engineering, power, and domestic consumption plays. The brokerage’s curated portfolio of 10 stocks — a mix of large-cap and emerging names — is aimed at superior long-term risk-adjusted returns.
SBI Securities: India May Shed ‘Underperformer’ Tag
According to SBI Securities, Indian equities could outperform global peers in Samvat 2082, supported by double-digit earnings growth, benign crude prices, and improving trade ties with the US.
The brokerage expects strong festive demand in Q3 FY26, aided by GST cuts and a favorable consumption cycle. It identifies multi-sector opportunities across:
Auto and cement
NBFCs focused on MSME and housing finance
Capital market intermediaries
Defence, pharma (CDMO & ancillaries)
Hotels, hospitals, and office leasing
“India remains a compelling long-term story, supported by policy reforms and fiscal discipline,” the report stated.
Mirae Asset Sharekhan: Leadership to Shift Toward Large Caps
Mirae Asset Sharekhan remains constructive on India’s growth trajectory, emphasizing the country’s steady march toward becoming the world’s third-largest economy. However, after two consecutive years of outperformance by small- and mid-caps, the brokerage expects leadership to rotate back to large caps in Samvat 2082, citing better valuations and risk-adjusted returns.
“We see a valuation reset underway in smaller stocks. Large caps now offer better stability and earnings visibility,” Mirae noted.
Outlook for Samvat 2082: Stable Yet Selective
As the new trading year begins, most brokerages agree that India’s equity story remains intact, but the path ahead may be more selective. With steady earnings growth, policy continuity, and monetary easing on the horizon, experts foresee moderate but sustainable returns.
However, valuation caution, geopolitical risks, and global economic uncertainty could make stock selection and sector positioning crucial for investors in Samvat 2082.
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