Bajaj Auto Shares Dip 2% Post Q4 FY25 Earnings; Analysts Weigh Buy, Sell, Hold

Bajaj Auto’s shares declined by 2 percent to ₹8,703 on May 30 following the company’s Q4 FY25 results announcement. Despite a 6 percent rise in net profit beating estimates, the stock faced selling pressure amid mixed outlook signals and cautious investor sentiment.

Highlights:

• Q4 net profit rose 6% YoY to ₹2,049 crore, beating expectations.

• Revenue grew 6% YoY to ₹12,148 crore, driven by exports, premium motorcycles, EVs, and commercial vehicles.

• Domestic demand remained weak; KTM export suspension impacted revenue growth.

• Management forecasts 5-7% motorcycle market growth in FY26.

• 125cc motorcycles and electric vehicles (EVs) seen as key growth drivers.

• Bajaj’s Chetak e-scooter was the top-selling EV in Q4.

Q4 Earnings: Solid Growth Amid Export and Market Challenges

Bajaj Auto’s quarterly performance was buoyed by strong motorcycle exports and favourable forex gains, which offset softness in the domestic market. Revenue expansion was limited to 6 percent, short of double-digit growth, largely due to a temporary halt in KTM exports.

The company highlighted robust demand for premium motorcycles, electric scooters, and commercial vehicles, reflecting a diversified product mix contributing to revenue resilience. Bajaj’s emphasis on the growing 125cc segment—now over half of industry volumes—and the promising e-scooter market bodes well for future growth.

Highlights:

• 125cc motorcycle segment expected to grow nearly twice as fast as the overall market.

• E-scooter segment projected to grow 20-25% in FY26, driven by Chetak EV success.

Analyst Views: Mixed Ratings but Positive Growth Outlook

Bernstein

• Maintains ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of ₹11,000 (24% upside).

• Cites Bajaj’s ability to sustain margins despite market challenges.

• Highlights positive management outlook, especially on exports.

CLSA

• Retains ‘Outperform’ with a ₹10,149 target.

• Notes 12% YoY gain in electric two-wheeler market share, now at 25% in Q4.

• Projects 7% domestic volume growth and 12% export growth in FY26.

Jefferies

• Assigns ‘Hold’ rating with a target of ₹8,000, below recent market price.

• Appreciates growth prospects and EV portfolio expansion.

• Flags concerns over declining domestic motorcycle market share and two-wheeler exports.

• Notes current 26x FY26 P/E valuation as expensive despite expected 13% EPS CAGR (FY25–28).

Stock Performance and Market Sentiment

Bajaj Auto’s shares closed slightly higher at ₹8,874 on the NSE, marking a modest 0.3% gain from the previous close despite intraday weakness. Over the past three months, the stock has delivered a 13 percent return, reflecting steady investor confidence amid cyclical market conditions.

Highlights:

• Stock slipped 2% post-results but closed with a small gain on the day.

• 13% gain over last 3 months indicates moderate bullishness.