Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index Shows Extreme Pessimism, Analysts Predict Tactical Bottom Could Be Near

Contents

Sentiment Hits Record Lows as Bitcoin Slides Sharply Extreme Fear Often Sets Stage for a Bitcoin Rebound Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Really Over? Analysts Say ‘Not Yet’Macro Headwinds Add Pressure, but Structural Support Remains Strong Outlook: A Reset Phase Before the Next Leg Higher?

In a week defined by deepening volatility and growing investor anxiety, the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index shows extreme pessimism, reaching levels that historically signal a potential tactical bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. According to analytics firm 10x Research, sentiment has plunged to a record low of below 5 points, a reading that typically precedes an interim recovery phase.

Sentiment Hits Record Lows as Bitcoin Slides Sharply

The collapse in sentiment follows a brutal pullback in the crypto market, with Bitcoin dropping to $80,880 on Friday before recovering slightly to $84,800 at press time. Despite the bounce, Bitcoin remains down 10% for the week and 23% over the month, underscoring the severity of the drawdown.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen said the firm’s proprietary index shows conditions that have historically aligned with short-term recoveries. “Our own Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index shows extreme pessimism, and the slower-moving average has now reached the 10% zone,” he told CoinDesk. “This level often marks a tactical low.”

He cautioned, however, that reaching a sentiment trough does not guarantee an immediate end to the decline. “Prices can still fall further, as we saw in March, but Bitcoin staged a 10% rebound soon after that initial sentiment low,” Thielen explained.

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Extreme Fear Often Sets Stage for a Bitcoin Rebound

The use of fear-based sentiment metrics is not new in crypto markets. The broader Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which factors in volatility, volume, dominance and social media trends, has also remained below 40 for more than two weeks — firmly in “Fear” territory.

Analysts say such readings have historically created accumulation opportunities. A new report from Copper examined 40 past fear events, revealing a consistent behavioural pattern:

Bitcoin typically falls 10–12% after fear emerges
A rebound of 15–30% follows within 6–10 weeks

Copper’s analysis suggests that the current cycle is following this pattern closely. “The October 2025 setup aligns almost perfectly with historical behaviour,” the firm said, adding that the recent low near $102,000–$103,000 may mark another fear-driven capitulation point with recovery potential toward $125,000–$130,000 by mid-December.

This reinforces the central narrative that the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index shows extreme pessimism, but such moments often signal the early phase of a recovery rather than the end of a bull cycle.

Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Really Over? Analysts Say ‘Not Yet’

Despite widespread anxiety, several experts argue that the bull run is far from finished. Copper’s report describes the latest downturn as a “reset, not a reversal,” emphasising that Bitcoin bull markets typically include sharp pullbacks.

The firm noted that post-ETF behaviour has compressed Bitcoin’s fear cycles into shorter, shallower moves. “Every time fear takes hold, Bitcoin tends to pull back sharply, then rebound harder,” the report said. The most recent dip appears consistent with past exhaustion points.

Yet, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance continue to shift. October — commonly known as “Uptober” — has failed to live up to its reputation, with BTC posting just 1.02% gains so far. Market probabilities reflect this cooling optimism:

Polymarket odds for reaching $130,000 in 2025 have dropped from 86% to 54%
Odds of hitting $140,000 or $150,000 have fallen even faster

Still, many analysts believe Bitcoin’s four-year cycles could be lengthening, meaning explosive surges may arrive later — perhaps in 2026, not 2025.

Macro Headwinds Add Pressure, but Structural Support Remains Strong

Part of the current market uncertainty stems from external factors:

1. Geopolitical volatility

Donald Trump’s renewed trade tensions with China have sparked global risk-off sentiment, spilling into crypto.

2. Rising institutional influence

Bitcoin spot ETFs, launched in January 2024, have brought unprecedented institutional capital into the market. Some analysts believe this has reduced volatility — both upward and downward.

3. Slower ‘God candle’ potential

With institutional trading suppressing extreme moves, sudden price explosions have become less common. This may explain why rallies feel less dramatic despite strong long-term fundamentals.

Yet, despite these headwinds, the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index shows extreme pessimism at a time when long-term structural catalysts — such as ETF inflows, halving-driven supply shocks, and rising global adoption — remain intact.

Outlook: A Reset Phase Before the Next Leg Higher?

For now, analysts agree on one thing: sentiment is nearing exhaustion, and history suggests that extreme fear often marks the beginning — not the end — of a recovery.

“If the $103,000 region holds, historical data points to a recovery toward $125,000–$130,000 before year-end,” Copper’s report concluded.

With the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index showing extreme pessimism, the market appears to be moving into a reset phase — a cooling period that often precedes renewed upside momentum.