Brent Crude May Cross $80 as US-Russia Tensions Spark Global Supply Fears

Global energy markets are facing renewed volatility as rising US-Russia tensions threaten to disrupt crude oil supplies, pushing Brent crude prices higher. Experts are now forecasting that Brent may cross $80–82 per barrel by the end of 2025, driven by the looming threat of sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty.

Trump’s Ultimatum to Russia Fuels Oil Price Surge

Market sentiment has taken a sharp turn following Donald Trump’s latest 12-day ultimatum to Russia to halt its military operations in Ukraine. If Russia does not comply, the US may impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing oil trade with Moscow — a move that could drastically impact the global oil supply chain.

“The momentum is being driven by the threat of US sanctions on nations trading with Russia. If enforced, it could severely disrupt global oil flows,” said N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura.

He noted that Brent’s October 2025 contract has already risen from $72.07 to near $76, with support seen at $69. A surge to $80–$82 per barrel by year-end is increasingly likely if current trends persist.

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Why the Oil Market is on Edge

Russia exports nearly 5 million barrels of crude per day, and any move to restrict its supply could lead to a major global shortage. According to energy analyst Narendra Taneja, if Russian oil is forced off the market, prices could soar to $100–$120 per barrel.

“Even if India manages supply through other countries, managing consumer pricing will be the bigger challenge,” Taneja warned.

India currently imports oil from over 40 countries, so an immediate supply crunch is unlikely. However, the cost pressure on refineries and the resulting impact on retail fuel prices could be significant.

WTI Crude Also Set for an Upswing

The price rise isn’t limited to Brent. WTI crude is expected to climb from $69.65 to $73 in the short term, with year-end targets of $76–$79. Downside support is pegged around $65, making any unexpected supply cut a potential price catalyst.

Supply Shock Ahead?

The global oil market is already dealing with tight spare production capacity, meaning any sudden supply shock could tip the balance. While Saudi Arabia or OPEC+ may try to ramp up output, the infrastructure and manpower required take time — adding pressure to short-term prices.

Interestingly, while Trump’s goal may be to lower domestic fuel prices, the US may not be able to ramp up production fast enough to counteract global supply shocks.

Other Market Triggers

Investors are also closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision and domestic inventory data, both of which can influence oil futures pricing. A stronger dollar has offered some price control, but geopolitical risks continue to outweigh fundamentals.

Recent trade deals between US-EU and US-China have provided temporary relief, but analysts believe the underlying risk to oil markets remains high. If Russian supply is pulled and OPEC+ fails to step in adequately, the world could face a significant oil crunch.

Key Highlights:

• Brent crude may rise to $80–$82 per barrel by end-2025.

• Trump’s ultimatum to Russia fuels supply shock fears.

• Russian export restrictions could push prices up to $100–$120.

• Indian refineries may manage supply, but pricing pressure remains.

• WTI crude also projected to climb, mirroring Brent’s movement.

• Tight global spare capacity increases risk of price spikes.

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