Bajaj Auto Shares Rally After Brokerage Upgrade Boosts Investor Sentiment
Shares of Bajaj Auto climbed nearly 3 percent on January 6 to hit a fresh 52-week high, as a bullish brokerage upgrade reignited buying interest in the stock. The rally came after Emkay Global upgraded Bajaj Auto to a ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price, citing an attractive risk-reward profile backed by strong export momentum and upcoming product launches.
The stock touched an intraday high of ₹9,783.5 on the National Stock Exchange, marking its highest level since November 2024. The move also snapped a two-session losing streak, signalling renewed confidence among investors in the company’s growth outlook.
Emkay Global Turns Bullish, Raises Target Price by 17 Percent
The rally followed a positive note from Emkay Global Financial Services, which upgraded Bajaj Auto to ‘Buy’ from ‘Add’ and raised its target price to ₹11,100. This implies an upside potential of around 17 percent from current levels.
According to the brokerage, Bajaj Auto “offers the best risk-reward at current levels,” supported by a combination of strong exports, improving domestic demand, and a healthy product pipeline. Emkay highlighted that earnings growth is likely to be driven by favourable currency movements, scale benefits from exports, and the launch of a refreshed Pulsar range in calendar year 2026.
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Export Momentum Emerges as a Key Growth Driver
Exports remain a major pillar of Bajaj Auto’s growth story. Emkay noted that overseas shipments continue to be robust across key regions such as Latin America and Asia, aided by currency depreciation in several markets. Exports accounted for about 44 percent of total volumes in FY26 year-to-date, compared with 39 percent in FY25 year-to-date, underscoring the company’s increasing global footprint.
Key export-related positives highlighted by the brokerage include:
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Strong demand in Latin America and Asia
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Currency tailwinds supporting realisations and margins
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Expanding presence in Africa and other emerging markets
“Strong exports, particularly to Latin America, Asia and parts of Africa, along with currency tailwinds, are likely to support margins,” Emkay said, adding that Bajaj Auto’s export-heavy sales mix provides resilience against domestic demand volatility.
Domestic Demand Shows Signs of Recovery in Q3 FY26
On the domestic front, Emkay observed early signs of recovery during the third quarter of FY26. Demand has shown a mild uptick, led by premium motorcycles and electric scooters, segments where Bajaj Auto has been strengthening its portfolio.
Analysts believe that improving rural sentiment, stable fuel prices, and a gradual recovery in discretionary spending could further support domestic volumes. The refreshed Pulsar range expected in 2026 is also seen as a key catalyst that could help Bajaj Auto consolidate its position in the premium motorcycle segment.
Electric Three-Wheeler Leadership Adds Structural Strength
Bajaj Auto’s growing presence in electric mobility was another positive highlighted in the brokerage note. In the fast-expanding electric three-wheeler segment, Bajaj Auto has overtaken Mahindra & Mahindra as of December 2025, capturing a market share of around 32 percent.
This leadership position reflects the company’s early investments in electric mobility and its ability to scale operations efficiently. Analysts see the electric three-wheeler business as a structural growth driver, supported by favourable government policies and rising adoption of electric vehicles for last-mile mobility.
Margins Seen Supported by Mix, Currency and Scale Benefits
Emkay expects margins to remain healthy over the medium term, supported by a favourable product mix, strong exports, and currency tailwinds. The brokerage believes that Bajaj Auto is well-positioned to balance volume growth with profitability, even in a competitive environment.
The report also noted that the company’s disciplined cost structure and strong balance sheet provide additional comfort, particularly as it invests in new products and technologies.
Medium-Term Outlook Remains Positive, Say Analysts
Looking ahead, Emkay expects Bajaj Auto to deliver steady volume, revenue, and earnings growth over the medium term. The brokerage said that the combination of export-led growth, improving domestic demand, leadership in electric three-wheelers, and upcoming product launches makes the stock attractive at current valuations.
As one analyst put it, “Bajaj Auto’s diversified growth drivers and export-heavy model position it well to navigate near-term challenges while delivering consistent returns.”
For investors, the latest upgrade reinforces Bajaj Auto’s status as one of the stronger plays in the auto space, with visibility on growth and a favourable risk-reward balance as the company enters its next phase of expansion.
