Gold Prices Fall Ahead of Key US Data Amid Tariff War Uncertainty

Gold prices experienced a notable decline on Friday, falling as much as 0.8%, which places the precious metal on track for nearly a 2% weekly loss. This technical pullback comes as investors eagerly await key US economic indicators, especially the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, scheduled for release later in the day. Market participants are keen to gauge the impact of President Donald Trump’s ongoing global trade tariffs on consumer spending and wage growth for April.

Gold Prices Fall on Technical Weakness and Data Anticipation

Gold futures for August 2025 delivery (GC=F) opened the market at around $3,322 per ounce but slid by $21.90 or 0.65% early Friday morning. According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte., the metal’s recent price action has struggled to breach a key resistance level near $3,328. The failure to surpass this technical barrier during the US and early Asian sessions contributed to selling pressure ahead of the US inflation data release.

Highlights:

• Gold futures dropped up to 0.8% on Friday.

• Price action repeatedly failed to break resistance near $3,328.

• Weekly losses approaching 2% amid profit-taking.

Markets Focus on US PCE Inflation Data for Economic Insights

The US personal consumption expenditures price index is viewed as a critical gauge for Fed policy decisions, reflecting real-time inflation trends impacting consumer spending power. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring this report to understand how tariffs have influenced the broader economy—particularly inflationary pressures, wage growth, and overall consumer resilience.

Given that tariffs enacted by the Trump administration have raised costs on imported goods, the PCE data will offer fresh insights on whether these levies are filtering through to consumers and businesses. Strong inflation numbers could reinforce expectations of continued Federal Reserve tightening, whereas softer data might ease pressure on interest rate hikes.

Highlights:

• PCE price index release expected to shape Fed policy outlook.

• Data to reveal tariff impacts on inflation and consumer behavior.

• Critical for assessing economic resilience amid trade tensions.

Tariff-Related Uncertainties Keep Gold’s Haven Status Intact

Despite the recent price softness, gold’s role as a safe haven remains relevant due to ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade war. This week, market jitters were renewed after a US federal appeals court temporarily upheld President Trump’s tariffs program, offering him reprieve from a legal challenge that threatened to dismantle key levies.

Additionally, tensions flared as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described trade negotiations with Beijing as “a bit stalled,” following White House measures to revoke Chinese student visas and impose new export restrictions on chip design software. Beijing responded angrily to these moves, further escalating geopolitical risks.

These developments have maintained underlying support for gold among investors seeking a hedge against political and economic instability. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish stance on bullion this week, highlighting gold’s value in long-term portfolios alongside commodities such as crude oil.

Highlights:

• Federal court’s tariff ruling bolsters Trump’s trade agenda temporarily.

• US-China trade talks remain stalled with new visa and tech restrictions.

• Goldman Sachs sees gold as a key inflation hedge amid volatility.

Dollar Strength and Other Metals Also Influence Market Dynamics

Alongside gold, other precious metals such as silver, palladium, and platinum saw declines on Friday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged higher, buoyed by investor positioning ahead of the inflation data, after a relatively choppy session the day before.

The US dollar’s strength often inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger greenback raises the cost of gold for holders of other currencies. This interplay is a critical factor driving short-term fluctuations in bullion markets, especially during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Highlights:

• Silver, palladium, and platinum prices also declined on Friday.

• Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose slightly amid data anticipation.

• Dollar strength typically weighs on gold prices.