Governor Malhotra Flags Policy Flexibility Under ‘Neutral’ Stance; August RBI Meet in Focus

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra hints at further rate cuts if growth slows and inflation stays muted—traders watch bond yields, rate-sensitive stocks

Recent Development and Why It Matters

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on July 15 clarified that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) retains full flexibility to cut or hike rates, depending on evolving economic conditions. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Malhotra emphasized that the current ‘neutral’ policy stance should not be interpreted as a pause-only signal—it allows movement “in either direction.”

The comments come a month after the central bank delivered a surprise 50 bps repo rate cut in June, bringing the rate down to 5.5%. With retail inflation falling to a 6-year low of 2.1% in June, and wholesale inflation turning negative, traders are increasingly pricing in a potential rate cut at the August 4–6 MPC meeting.

Also Read : ICICI Prudential Life Q1 Net Profit Jumps 34% to Rs.302 Cr Despite 5% APE Decline

Market Reaction and Technical Outlook

Government bond yields edged lower on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield slipping 3 bps to 6.90%, amid growing speculation of another rate cut. Banking and NBFC stocks, typically rate-sensitive, showed mixed moves. HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, and LIC Housing Finance traded flat, while Bank of Baroda gained over 0.7% intraday.

In the F&O space, open interest in August Bank Nifty 49,000 call options rose sharply, suggesting bullish bets on potential credit growth acceleration if rate cuts resume. Traders are watching for cues from core CPI trends, GDP revisions, and RBI liquidity management actions ahead of the policy.

Broader Sector and Index Impact

A dovish signal from the RBI supports rate-sensitive sectors like banks, housing finance companies, real estate, and auto stocks. Nifty PSU Bank Index closed 0.4% higher, outperforming Nifty Bank, which ended flat. Meanwhile, NBFC stocks such as M&M Financial and Cholamandalam Investment showed signs of early accumulation.

With RBI already announcing a 100 bps CRR cut (to be implemented in tranches starting September), banks will have added room for liquidity expansion and lower cost of funds, which could re-rate earnings and boost credit offtake.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers on Friday, and dovish monetary guidance could trigger further inflows into Indian debt and equities.

Trading Sentiment and Watchlist Ahead

Traders are now sharply focused on the August MPC outcome. While no clear confirmation of a rate cut was given, Malhotra’s comments signal that another repo cut is firmly on the table if inflation and growth trends support easing.

Expect heightened volatility in Bank Nifty, NBFCs, and rate-linked sectors in the run-up to the meeting.

Stocks to Watch:

• LIC Housing Finance (₹620): Breakout possible if RBI signals more easing

• Bajaj Finance (₹7,180): Medium-term upside on lower cost of funds

• SBI (₹890): Watch near ₹900 resistance ahead of policy meet

Check This:

• LIC Housing Finance Stock Price
• Bajaj Finance Stock Price
• SBI Stock Price