India Tightens Oil Data Monitoring as Russian Crude Becomes Central to US Trade Talks
India has begun seeking weekly disclosures of Russian and US oil imports from domestic refiners, signalling a calibrated policy shift as New Delhi attempts to move closer to a long-pending trade deal with Washington. The move comes at a sensitive time, with Russian crude purchases emerging as one of the most contentious issues in India–US trade negotiations.
According to people familiar with the matter, the government expects Russian oil imports to dip below one million barrels per day in the coming months, even though refiners have not been formally instructed to cut volumes. The data collection effort underscores India’s intent to present “verified and timely” information to the United States, rather than allowing discussions to be shaped by third-party estimates.
Weekly Oil Import Disclosures Mark a First for Indian Refiners
For the first time, India’s oil ministry has sought weekly import data instead of relying on monthly customs figures and private analytics. The request has been routed through the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) and, according to sources, has been initiated at the behest of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office.
A government official explained the rationale behind the move, saying, “We want timely and accurate data on Russian and US oil imports so that, when the US asks for information, we can provide verified figures instead of them relying on secondary sources.”
Officials clarified that the information is meant for internal and diplomatic use and is not expected to be made public.
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Russian Oil Purchases Under Global Scrutiny Since 2022
India emerged as the world’s largest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude following the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. These purchases helped Indian refiners manage costs and ensured energy security at a time of volatile global oil prices.
However, India’s strategy has drawn criticism from Western nations, which have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, arguing that oil revenues support Moscow’s war effort. While New Delhi has consistently defended its position, the geopolitical backlash has increasingly spilled into trade negotiations.
US Tariffs and Trade Deficit Concerns Add Pressure
The United States, already focused on narrowing its trade deficit with India, doubled import tariffs on Indian goods to 50% last year, citing India’s heavy purchases of Russian oil. Talks on a bilateral trade deal have continued intermittently but have often stalled due to political and economic differences.
Negotiations reportedly broke down in late July after India resisted opening its agricultural market to US farm products and declined to acknowledge claims by President Donald Trump regarding mediation in a brief India–Pakistan conflict. In August, Washington responded by sharply increasing tariff rates.
Despite this, dialogue has resumed, with energy trade — particularly Russian oil — remaining a key sticking point.
Refiners Not Asked to Cut Imports, but Volumes Expected to Fall
Two government officials said refiners have not been explicitly told to reduce Russian oil purchases. Still, industry executives and policymakers expect imports to average below one million barrels per day in the near term due to a mix of diplomatic pressure and tighter sanctions.
Recent trends already point in that direction:
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Russian oil flows to India fell to about 1.2 million bpd in December, a three-year low
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This represents a 40% drop from the June peak of nearly 2 million bpd
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Stricter US and European Union sanctions have complicated shipping and financing
These estimates are based on inputs from trade sources and analytics firm Kpler.
US Energy Supplies Gain Strategic Importance for India
As talks continue, India is also exploring ways to increase energy imports from the United States. Trump has repeatedly positioned energy purchases as a cornerstone of US trade agreements, and India has already ramped up imports of American gas.
Industry sources said refiners are now assessing greater US crude intake to rebalance sourcing and ease trade tensions. According to Kpler data, the US accounted for 6.6% of India’s crude imports in 2025, compared with 35% supplied by Russia.
Major refiners such as Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corp have not commented publicly on the government’s data request.
Energy Security Versus Trade Diplomacy Remains a Delicate Balance
India has consistently argued that Russian oil imports are driven by energy security and consumer interests, not geopolitics. Even after Trump claimed in October that Modi had pledged to halt Russian oil purchases, New Delhi publicly pushed back, reiterating its sovereign right to source energy at competitive prices.
At the same time, policymakers appear keen to prevent oil trade from derailing a broader economic partnership with the US. The weekly data exercise reflects a nuanced approach — one that prioritises transparency and flexibility without issuing direct mandates to industry.
As one industry source put it, “This is less about cutting imports overnight and more about managing optics, data credibility and negotiating space.”
For investors, the message is clear: India’s oil strategy is entering a more data-driven and diplomatically sensitive phase, where energy security, sanctions risk and global trade ambitions will increasingly intersect.
