India Unfazed by Trump’s 50% Steel Tariff, But Analysts Warn of China Dumping Risk

In a bold move, former US President Donald Trump has signed an order that doubles tariffs on imported steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%, effective June 4. While this development stirred global trade discussions, analysts believe that the direct impact on Indian steelmakers will be minimal — at least for now.

Industry experts noted that most Indian steel producers are not heavily dependent on the US market. However, they flagged a bigger concern: possible dumping of excess steel by China and other countries, which could hurt pricing and margins globally, including in India.

“No material impact is seen on Indian steelmakers (due to the 50 percent tariffs). Any indirect impact based on the tariffs for steel products like equipment, automobiles, or auto parts, needs to be seen,” said an analyst at a domestic brokerage firm.

The ripple effects of Trump’s tariff hike may show up indirectly through India’s export sectors, such as automobiles, auto components, and engineering goods, which could face cost pressures if global trade tensions rise.

Meanwhile, India has imposed a 12% safeguard duty on some steel imports to protect domestic producers. However, experts say the continuation of this safeguard duty beyond 200 days could be risky, possibly inviting WTO scrutiny or retaliatory measures.

As trade talks between India and the US continue, both governments will be closely watching the evolving dynamics. For now, Indian steelmakers may breathe easy — but the threat of global dumping, especially from China, remains very real.