India–US Trade Interim Tariff Deal Enter Final Stretch, but Without a Fixed Timeline
India and the United States are “very close” to finalising an interim agreement aimed at lowering reciprocal tariffs, signalling a potential breakthrough in bilateral trade relations. However, both sides are deliberately avoiding committing to a specific timeline, reflecting the complexity and sensitivity of the negotiations.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, speaking in New Delhi on December 15, said the two countries are nearing closure on an initial framework deal that could ease tariff barriers and set the stage for a broader bilateral trade agreement (BTA).
“We are very close to closing the initial framework deal, but I don’t want to put a timeline to it,” Agrawal said, underlining the cautious approach being taken despite tangible progress.
Six Rounds of Talks Lay Groundwork for Interim Tariff Relief
According to the Commerce Secretary, India and the US have already completed six rounds of discussions, covering both a comprehensive BTA and a narrower interim deal focused on reducing reciprocal tariffs.
“These discussions have addressed both the bilateral trade agreement as well as an interim arrangement to lower reciprocal tariffs,” Agrawal said, adding that there is a “fair expectation” that both sides will be able to reach common ground.
For investors, the reference to an interim deal is significant. Rather than waiting for a full-fledged trade agreement—which can take years to negotiate—an interim framework could deliver quicker relief by lowering duties on select goods and reducing uncertainty for exporters on both sides.
Also Read : Merchandise Trade Deficit Contracts to $24.5 Billion as India’s November Data Improves
Positive Signals from Washington Boost Market Confidence
The tone from Washington has also been encouraging. Earlier this month, US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said the US had received the “best-ever” offers from India under the proposed trade agreement.
Speaking at a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing, Greer acknowledged that negotiations with India have historically been challenging, particularly in sensitive sectors such as agriculture.
Row crops—such as corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton—along with certain meat products, remain contentious areas due to domestic sensitivities in India. Despite this, Greer said India has been “forward leaning” in its recent proposals, calling the offers the most constructive the US has ever received from New Delhi.
For global investors tracking India–US trade relations, such remarks suggest a shift toward pragmatism on both sides, even in politically sensitive sectors.
Deputy USTR Visit Reflects Momentum in Trade Engagement
Agrawal said the recent visit of the US Deputy Trade Representative was aimed at taking stock of the overall trade relationship and assessing progress on both the BTA and the interim framework deal.
“The visit was to see where we are on the bilateral trade agreement as well as the framework deal,” he said.
This high-level engagement indicates that trade negotiations are not merely exploratory but are now focused on narrowing differences and translating discussions into concrete outcomes.
Tariff Disputes and Trade Deficit Concerns Remain Key Drivers
Trade tensions between the two countries have been shaped in recent years by tariff actions and geopolitical factors. The US had earlier imposed a 25 percent duty on certain Indian goods, citing concerns over its trade deficit with India, which stood at around $46 billion in 2024–25.
An additional 25 percent penalty was later imposed in response to India’s purchases of Russian crude oil, further complicating trade ties.
The proposed interim deal to lower reciprocal tariffs could help unwind some of these measures, offering relief to Indian exporters and improving cost competitiveness in the US market.
US Continues to Be India’s Largest Trading Partner
Despite periodic friction, the US remains India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25. Bilateral trade stood at $131.84 billion, with Indian exports accounting for $86.5 billion of that total.
The US currently absorbs about 18 percent of India’s total goods exports, while accounting for 6.22 percent of imports and 10.73 percent of total merchandise trade.
Any reduction in tariffs could therefore have a meaningful impact on India’s export-oriented sectors, including engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, textiles and IT-linked hardware.
What the Interim Deal Could Mean for Investors
From an investor standpoint, progress toward an interim India–US trade deal carries several implications:
Export Upside: Lower tariffs could improve margins and volumes for Indian exporters with significant US exposure.
Policy Predictability: An interim framework reduces uncertainty around future trade actions and retaliatory tariffs.
Market Sentiment: Improved trade relations with the US often support positive sentiment in Indian equity and currency markets.
However, analysts caution that the absence of a timeline means expectations should remain measured, particularly given the political and sectoral sensitivities involved.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism as Negotiations Continue
While both sides appear aligned on the need to lower reciprocal tariffs, officials remain careful not to rush the process. The focus, for now, is on securing a durable and mutually beneficial framework rather than a quick announcement.
As talks continue, investors will closely watch for clarity on sector-specific concessions and tariff reductions. A successful interim deal could mark a meaningful step forward in India–US trade relations and pave the way for a more comprehensive bilateral agreement in the future.
