CEA Nageswaran Says India–US Trade Issues ‘Sorted Out’, Expects Deal by March
India’s Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has expressed strong confidence that most trade issues between New Delhi and Washington have been resolved, saying he would be “surprised” if a trade agreement is not finalised by March 2026. His remarks come at a critical time, as both nations engage intensively to close the first tranche of a long-awaited bilateral trade pact that has faced months of delays.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Nageswaran acknowledged that although a breakthrough was initially expected by the end of November, geopolitical complexities pushed the timeline further.
“I was hoping something would be done by the end of November, but it has turned out to be elusive… However, I would be surprised if we don’t have it sealed by the end of the financial year,” he said.
Geopolitical Headwinds Delay Trade Pact but Momentum Remains Strong
New Delhi and Washington earlier planned to conclude the first phase of the agreement by this fall. However, negotiations failed to meet that deadline, prompting concerns over whether both sides could meet their revised targets. According to Nageswaran, geopolitics—not economics—remains the biggest obstacle, making it challenging to commit to an exact timeline.
“I believe this is as much a matter of geopolitics as it is of bilateral trade,” he said.
Yet he maintained that progress on key issues has been encouraging, and discussions are now focusing on the remaining agricultural and market-access concerns.
India has consistently reiterated that it expects the pact to be concluded soon, with officials indicating optimism that a deal could materialise as early as the end of this year.
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CEA Says GDP Outlook for FY27 Strong; Weaker Rupee Benefiting Exports
Despite ongoing tariff pressure from the United States—especially after last year’s additional 25% penalty imposed by the US administration on Indian goods—Nageswaran said India’s economy has remained resilient. Exporters, he noted, have successfully diversified to other markets, helping cushion the impact of higher duties.
“The economy has surprised us with better performance than we anticipated early in the forecast cycle,” he observed, adding that he would not be surprised to see similar upside surprises in the 2026–27 period.
Nageswaran also highlighted that the weaker rupee, which has slipped 5–15% against trade competitors, is proving beneficial at the current juncture. Despite currency volatility, the depreciation is helping price Indian exports more competitively in global markets.
“Having a weaker rupee at this point is not a major problem, as it benefits the export sector given global uncertainties,” he said.
US Trade Representative Says India Made Its ‘Best-Ever Offer’ in Ongoing Talks
The CEA’s remarks came a day after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made an unusually positive assessment of India’s proposals. Speaking at a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing, Greer said India has made “the best offers Washington has received as a country” in the ongoing trade negotiations.
He added that an American team is currently in India working through agricultural barriers, particularly relating to market access for US farm products.
The US delegation, led by Deputy Trade Representative Ambassador Rick Switzer, is holding intensive discussions with Indian officials led by Joint Secretary Darpan Jain.
Although Greer noted that resistance persists on some crop categories, he emphasised that India’s latest proposals represent a significant opening—especially at a time when US agricultural producers face oversupply and weakening demand from China.
High-Level Engagement Intensifies as Both Sides Push to Finalise First Tranche
The renewed momentum in the trade talks coincides with a period of heightened diplomatic engagement between the two nations.
A US delegation led by Rick Switzer is currently in New Delhi.
US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker concluded a five-day visit to India on December 11 to advance the strategic partnership.
This is the second major US visit following President Trump’s announcement of an additional 25% penalty on Indian goods earlier this year.
Since then, India has significantly diversified its energy imports, reducing reliance on Russian crude and mitigating tariff risk.
The timing of these high-level visits is notable, coming just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, underscoring the broader geopolitical interplay influencing trade discussions.
Why a Trade Deal Matters Now: Economic and Strategic Stakes Rise
The proposed India–US trade agreement carries major implications for tariffs, agricultural access, energy trade, and investment flows. A successful deal would:
Reduce long-standing tariff barriers
Boost market access for companies in both countries
Strengthen supply-chain diversification
Enhance India’s role as a strategic alternative to China
Support export growth at a time of global demand uncertainty
For Washington, India represents a rapidly expanding market for agricultural and industrial goods. For India, the deal promises lower tariff burdens, more predictable trade rules and enhanced geopolitical alignment.
Conclusion: Confidence High but Timelines Still Fluid
While CEA Nageswaran remains confident that the India–US trade deal will be sealed by March, he cautions that geopolitical complexities could still impact the final stretch of negotiations. Yet with both sides intensifying diplomatic engagement and trade officials working round the clock, momentum is clearly building.
For markets, exporters and investors, the coming months will be crucial. A successful pact would mark one of the most significant bilateral trade milestones in recent years—strengthening economic ties at a time when global alliances are being rapidly redefined.
