India’s Diplomatic Strike Triggers Triple Crisis in Pakistan: Indus Waters, Trade, and Pharma Hit Hard

India’s tough diplomatic stance following the Pahalgam terror attack has unleashed a storm of challenges for Pakistan, with a three-pronged crisis now unfolding across the sectors of agriculture, healthcare, and trade. The recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a halt in bilateral trade, and a ban on pharmaceutical exports have left Pakistan scrambling to cope with the fallout.

Water crisis looms: Indus Waters Treaty suspended

At the center of this unfolding crisis is India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that, although not cutting off water flows immediately, has severe implications for Pakistan’s water-dependent agricultural economy.

Even a marginal reduction in river flow could cripple irrigation cycles in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh regions, which are vital for growing wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane.

Under the now-suspended treaty, Pakistan received nearly 80% of the water from western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — all flowing through India. With India now hinting at diverting eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) for its own exclusive use, Pakistan faces an unprecedented challenge in sustaining its farming economy.

Agriculture – The backbone under pressure

Agriculture contributes around 20% to Pakistan’s GDP and employs nearly 38% of its workforce. More than 80% of the country’s farmland relies on the Indus river system, which also supports about a third of its hydropower.

Any disruption in river flow could severely impact wheat production, especially in Central and Southern Punjab — the heartland of Pakistan’s food supply.

Districts like Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Multan, and Bahawalpur—high wheat-producing zones—are now at risk. With food prices already soaring in Pakistan, a drop in wheat output could drive inflation further, deepen poverty, and trigger rural unrest. If the shortage persists, Pakistan may be forced to import grains, which would strain its already fragile foreign exchange reserves.

Healthcare in crisis: Pharma exports from India halted

Another significant blow came as India suspended pharmaceutical exports to Pakistan, creating a brewing health crisis. Islamabad depends heavily on India for 30-40% of its pharmaceutical raw materials, including APIs and life-saving drugs for cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and infections.

If alternative sources aren’t secured quickly, Pakistan could face a critical shortage of essential medicines, leading to skyrocketing prices and unaffordable healthcare for many.

Emergency measures are underway, with Pakistan’s Drug Regulatory Authority (DRAP) exploring new suppliers in China, Russia, and Europe. However, the sudden disruption could lead to the rise of black markets flooded with unregistered and unsafe drugs, further endangering public health.

Fertiliser shock: Food production at further risk

Adding to the economic strain is the suspension of fertiliser trade, where India was a major supplier of DAP and urea, both crucial for Pakistan’s agriculture.

Without timely and affordable fertiliser supplies, crop productivity may drop, endangering food security further.

Pakistan will now need to import fertilisers from Gulf nations, Central Asia, or China, but this shift could bring higher costs, logistical delays, and dependency on less reliable trade routes. This, in turn, may disrupt sowing cycles and lower overall agricultural output.

A deepening economic emergency

India’s diplomatic retaliation has hit Pakistan where it hurts most — its water, food, and medicine supplies. As these measures take effect, Pakistan’s economy, already reeling from internal challenges, is expected to suffer even more across key sectors.

Key Highlights:

• India suspends Indus Waters Treaty, halts trade and pharma exports

• Pakistan’s agriculture sector risks collapse due to water and fertiliser shortages

• Healthcare crisis looming with potential medicine shortages and price hikes

• Black markets and food inflation could deepen poverty and unrest

This diplomatic hammer from India is being seen by many as a decisive, high-impact move. While New Delhi positions it as a response to terrorism, the real test now lies in how Pakistan navigates the triple crisis threatening its stability.