India’s Exports Worth $8.3 Billion Remain at Risk Even If US Court Reverses Trump’s Tariffs

Even If Trump’s Tariffs Are Overturned, 10% of India’s Exports to the US Stay Vulnerable

Even if the US Supreme Court strikes down Donald Trump’s controversial trade tariffs, India’s export exposure to the United States will remain significant. Nearly 10% of India’s shipments to the US—worth about $8.3 billion—are still vulnerable under Section 232 duties tied to American national security rules.

The US Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of former President Donald Trump’s reciprocal trade tariffs, which were imposed under emergency powers. These measures, introduced between 2018 and 2020, aimed to correct what Trump described as “unfair” trade relationships. However, experts say that even if the Court sides against Trump, India US trade tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 will remain in force — continuing to threaten a significant chunk of India’s exports.

Nearly $8.3 Billion of Indian Exports Remain Under Tariff Threat

According to UN COMTRADE data, India’s exports in tariff-sensitive categories such as steel, aluminium, automobiles, timber, copper, and machinery totalled $8.3 billion in 2024. These items accounted for 10.4 percent of India’s total exports to the US, which stood at $80 billion.

This means one out of every ten dollars of India’s exports to the US remains at risk, regardless of how the Supreme Court rules on Trump’s tariffs.

Under Section 232, the US government can impose duties on products deemed vital to national security. Unlike Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were driven by presidential discretion, Section 232 duties are rooted in formal investigations by the US Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative (USTR).

For India, these categories include automobiles ($3.9 billion), steel ($2.5 billion), and aluminium ($800 million) — the three largest export segments exposed to ongoing US trade barriers.

Also Read : How AI and Tech Disruption Are Transforming the Stock Market — What Investors Should Know

India’s Heavy Dependence on the US in Tariff-Sensitive Sectors

While the United States accounts for around 18.3 percent of India’s total global exports, its share is notably higher in tariff-sensitive categories, reaching 22.7 percent. This highlights how dependent Indian manufacturers have become on the US market in sectors directly affected by India US trade tariffs.

In proportional terms, the US buys nearly 39% of India’s timber exports, 37% of aluminium, and 34% of steel. This heavy dependence underscores the vulnerability of Indian exporters if the US maintains or expands its trade restrictions under Section 232. source: Moneycontrol

Why Trump’s Supreme Court Case Won’t Change Everything

The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision focuses on whether Trump overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs beyond national security grounds. However, Section 232 tariffs — particularly on steel and aluminium — were introduced separately and have been maintained by both the Trump and Biden administrations.

“Even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s reciprocal tariff powers, the Section 232 duties are not part of that case,” said a New Delhi–based trade policy analyst. “They remain legally valid until the US government formally lifts them — which hasn’t happened yet.”

This means India’s exporters could continue facing elevated costs and market disadvantages, especially in sectors like automobiles and metals, where margins are already thin.

Long-Term Trade Impact on India

Analysts warn that India’s export competitiveness could suffer if these US trade tariffs persist. Higher input costs on steel and aluminium can ripple across India’s broader manufacturing ecosystem — from auto components and machinery to renewable energy equipment.

“India’s manufacturing push under ‘Make in India’ depends on stable access to export markets,” one Mumbai-based economist noted. “Persistent India US trade tariffs add uncertainty and discourage long-term investment in industrial capacity.”

India has attempted to diversify exports toward Europe, ASEAN, and the Middle East, but the US remains its single largest export destination for many high-value products. With Washington unlikely to fully roll back Section 232 tariffs soon, Indian exporters may need to focus on value-added segments and trade diversification to mitigate risks.

What Lies Ahead for India-US Trade Relations

Trade experts believe that the next phase of India US trade relations will hinge on negotiations around supply chain security and critical materials. While India is exploring trade partnerships with the European Union and Australia, the US remains a crucial partner for advanced manufacturing, defence, and green energy components.

For India, the priority will be to minimise tariff exposure while expanding into non-sensitive product categories — especially pharmaceuticals, electronics, and software services — which are less vulnerable to Section 232 restrictions.

“Tariff issues may not disappear overnight,” said an analyst. “But India’s strategy should focus on agility — shifting exports from commodities to high-tech manufacturing and services where US tariffs have limited reach.”

Conclusion

Even if Trump’s trade measures are overturned, India’s export vulnerability to US tariffs remains intact. Roughly 10 percent of India’s shipments to America — worth over $8 billion — will continue to face tariff risk under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

For Indian exporters, this means the end of one trade dispute might not bring relief. The future of India US trade tariffs will depend not just on courtroom verdicts but on how quickly both nations can align economic and security priorities in an increasingly protectionist world.

• Nifty 50
• Bank Nifty
• Sensex