India’s July 8 Deadline for ‘Mini-Deal’ May Face Hurdles After US Doubles Metal Tariffs

India and the US are locked in talks to finalize a scaled-down version of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) before July 9, when new US reciprocal tariffs—including a 16 percent levy on Indian goods—are due to kick in. However, the US’s decision to raise steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 percent, without exempting India, may derail these efforts .

Why the New Tariffs Create Roadblocks

• The existing 90-day pause on country-specific tariffs ends July 8; now a 50 per cent universal tariff on steel and aluminium looms large .

• A source notes the absence of an India-specific exemption, and uncertainty over a 10 per cent baseline tariff remains a key concern .

Important sentence: “Apart from the country-specific tariffs … the US has also imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff, which remains in place, on all imports.”

High Stakes for Indian Exporters

With July 9 approaching, many Indian exporters have delayed shipments, fearing new costs or tariffs that could hit their margins .
Additionally, India is reportedly exploring WTO action, even as it continues bilateral negotiations .

The Bigger Picture

• The so-called “mini-deal” is a stepping stone toward a broader agreement aimed at doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, originally agreed during PM Modi’s visit to Washington .

• However, US demands—such as ** reciprocity on tariffs, agriculture, and autos**—remain sticking points .

• India’s Steel Minister has downplayed the impact of the 50% tariffs, calling them a “minor” concern—but industry bodies warn of rising global input costs and re-routed cargo flows.

What’s Next

• Talks have been extended into the following week, and negotiators are scrambling to meet the deadline.

• The US may offer temporary exemptions (as it did for the UK), but India’s unique case remains unresolved .

• India might continue parallel efforts, including WTO proceedings and pushing for exemptions in the wider trade dialogue .

Takeaway

• The US’s doubling of steel/aluminium tariffs to 50 percent, without India-specific relief, challenges the feasibility of a July 8 mini-deal.

• Exporters are cautious, shipments are paused, and trade talks have been extended.

• India pursues both bilateral negotiations and global legal options, but uncertainty looms as deadlines near.