India’s Crude Oil Import Strategy Remains Stable Despite US Action in Venezuela
The recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela is unlikely to materially impact India’s crude oil import basket in the near term, government officials and energy analysts have said, underscoring that Venezuela’s contribution to India’s oil needs remains marginal. While the geopolitical development has sparked global debate over potential shifts in energy flows, its immediate implications for India’s oil security appear limited.
“Venezuela’s crude oil share in India’s import basket is marginal. The present crisis is not going to affect India materially, or change the import mix anytime soon,” a government official familiar with the matter said, adding that any potential impact would be visible only over the medium to long term.
Venezuela’s Share in India’s Crude Basket Has Shrunk Sharply Over the Years
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows that in 2025, Venezuela accounted for just 0.6% of India’s total crude oil imports, translating to an average of around 28,000 barrels per day. This marks a steep decline from 2013, when Venezuela contributed as much as 12.4% to India’s crude oil basket.
The sharp fall began after 2020, following the imposition of stringent U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, which severely restricted the country’s ability to export crude and access critical technology, financing and logistics support. These sanctions remain in place today, limiting Venezuela’s participation in global oil markets, including India.
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Analysts See Only Incremental Impact Even if Sanctions Ease
Energy market experts believe that even if U.S. sanctions are relaxed following the intervention, the impact on India will be gradual and incremental rather than immediate. According to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, the nature of Venezuelan crude itself places structural limits on how much India can absorb.
“A stabilisation of Venezuela’s oil sector could allow limited volumes of discounted heavy crude to re-enter India’s import mix, primarily benefiting complex refineries,” Ritolia said. “However, any impact is likely to be incremental and dependent on sanctions policy and the pace of production recovery.”
Venezuelan crude is predominantly heavy to extra-heavy, with high sulphur content, making it more challenging and costly to process into high-value fuels such as petrol and diesel.
Limited Refinery Capacity Constrains System-Wide Intake
Only a handful of Indian refineries are equipped to process Venezuelan crude on a sustained basis. Historically, processing has been concentrated at Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery complex and Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, both of which are configured to handle heavy, high-sulphur crudes.
“There are only a few refineries in India which can process Venezuelan crude oil. Jamnagar is the only major refinery that can do it efficiently at scale,” said Prashant Vashisht, Senior Vice President at ICRA.
Limited volumes have also been processed intermittently at public-sector facilities such as Indian Oil Corporation’s Paradip refinery, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited, but analysts note that not all of these plants have the flexibility to run Venezuelan grades consistently.
ONGC Videsh’s Venezuela Assets Could Benefit Over Time
India does have a strategic presence in Venezuela through ONGC Videsh, which jointly operates the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela. Production at the field has been severely curtailed due to U.S. restrictions that blocked access to equipment, technology and services, leaving commercially viable reserves stranded.
Analysts estimate that once sanctions are lifted, production at San Cristobal could be revived to 80,000–100,000 barrels per day, from the current 5,000–10,000 barrels per day. However, any revival would take time, given the deterioration of infrastructure and the need for fresh capital investment.
“There is massive underproduction in Venezuela. First, capacities and infrastructure have to be rebuilt. So any benefit for India will be gradual and not in the near term,” Vashisht added.
Economics Favour Venezuelan Crude, But Volumes Remain Small
From a pricing perspective, Venezuelan crude has historically been attractive. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, pointed out that Venezuela offered some of the cheapest crude globally.
“In FY25, the price paid for Venezuela’s crude was about $496 per tonne, compared with an average of $586 per tonne,” Sabnavis said. “But imports have become even less significant subsequently.”
He added that if U.S. plans to revive Venezuela’s oil sector materialise, global crude supply could increase marginally, which may actually exert downward pressure on prices rather than pushing them higher. “India sources oil from multiple geographies at different prices, so the overall cost dynamics are unlikely to change materially,” Sabnavis said.
Refinery Upgrades Could Expand Future Intake Capacity
Over the medium to long term, India’s ability to process Venezuelan crude could improve as refiners invest in higher complexity. Analysts note that upgrades at refineries such as Vizag—already completed and commissioned—could gradually expand system-wide intake capacity for heavy and extra-heavy crudes.
“Planned investments aimed at increasing complexity could broaden India’s ability to process Venezuelan heavy crudes,” Ritolia said. “Until then, renewed Venezuelan supply would largely support a subset of Indian refiners, constraining aggregate intake potential despite improved availability.”
Geopolitics Sets the Context, Not the Immediate Outcome
The developments follow the dramatic U.S. action on January 3, when American forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and announced plans to revive the country’s oil infrastructure with U.S. investment. President Donald Trump said U.S. oil companies would invest to boost production and enable higher crude flows to global markets.
For India, however, officials and analysts agree that the immediate impact is limited. While the situation may reshape energy geopolitics over the next decade, India’s crude import strategy for the next one to three years is expected to remain largely unchanged, anchored by diversified sourcing and refinery-specific economics rather than geopolitical headlines.
