NALCO, Hindalco, Vedanta Shares Jump Up to 4.5%

NALCO, Hindalco, Vedanta Shares Rise to 4.5% on Global Cues, Metal Prices, Fed Hopes

India’s metal stocks outperformed the broader markets on October 24, surging sharply even as benchmark indices traded in the red. The Nifty Metal index jumped over 2 per cent in early trade to touch 10,457.40, before trimming gains to hold more than 1 per cent higher at 10,359 points by noon.

Investors flocked to metal counters amid a mix of global optimism, supply-side constraints, and monetary easing hopes. The rally pushed several stocks to new highs, marking a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued market session.

Top gainers included National Aluminium Company (NALCO), Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper, and Vedanta, which climbed between 3–4.5 per cent. Heavyweights Tata Steel and JSW Steel also traded marginally higher, while Hindustan Zinc, SAIL, NMDC, and Jindal Stainless Steel saw steady gains.

The surge came despite weak global equities and rising uncertainty across major markets. Analysts attributed the uptrend in the metals pack to four major triggers — geopolitical developments, supply constraints, monetary policy signals, and China’s long-term industrial roadmap.

Trump-Xi Meeting Sparks Hopes of Cooling Trade Tensions

The sharp recovery in global metal prices began after the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on October 30. The meeting, scheduled during Trump’s upcoming trip to Asia, raised expectations of a thaw in the ongoing US-China trade tensions.

The development came after weeks of unease in the commodities market, following Trump’s announcement of plans to impose tariffs of up to 155 per cent on Chinese imports. Investors interpreted the upcoming dialogue as a possible softening of tone — a signal that trade relations may not deteriorate further.

“Expectations of easing trade restrictions have always had an immediate positive impact on industrial metals,” said an analyst tracking the sector. “With the world’s two largest economies set to meet, traders anticipate a more stable demand outlook for commodities, especially aluminium and copper.”

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Global Metal Prices Rally Amid Supply Concerns

Global metal prices witnessed a notable jump on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Aluminium crossed the $2,850 per tonne mark, reflecting a combination of strong demand and tightening supply.

The rally was further fueled by news of a temporary shutdown at an aluminium smelter in Iceland following an equipment failure, which is expected to impact nearly 100 kilotonnes of annual production. Meanwhile, copper prices gained about 2 per cent on the LME, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese industrial demand.

“The primary growth in metal prices has been driven by aluminium producers,” said Shravan Shetty, Managing Director at Primus Partners.
“With higher aluminium prices, steel stocks have relatively underperformed since steel prices have softened. The expected US Fed rate cut and robust domestic demand are also helping improve quarterly performance,” he added.

US Federal Reserve Rate Cut Hopes Boost Commodities

A key driver behind the recent rally has been renewed hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. According to a Reuters poll, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4 per cent on October 29, with another possible reduction in December.

Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and make non-yielding assets like metals more attractive to investors. In turn, this often leads to an uptick in demand and speculative buying in commodities markets.

For India, where inflation remains under control and demand for infrastructure-related materials is rebounding, this global monetary easing trend bodes well for both earnings and valuation multiples of metal producers.

“More Fed rate cuts translate into cheaper liquidity and a stronger investment appetite for commodities,” said a Mumbai-based fund manager. “That’s directly reflected in the sharp upmove in aluminium, copper, and zinc counters today.”

China’s Five-Year Plan Sparks Optimism in Industrial Metals

Adding to the global momentum, China’s newly released five-year economic roadmap has lifted investor confidence in industrial metals. The plan emphasizes technological self-reliance, domestic market expansion, and a sustained focus on manufacturing and industrial output.

According to a communique issued by the Communist Party’s Central Committee, Beijing aims to “greatly increase” its capacity for self-reliance in science and technology and maintain manufacturing’s share in the national economy at a “reasonable” level.

These policy directions signal that China will continue to prioritise industrial production and infrastructure spending, both of which are major demand drivers for metals like aluminium, copper, and zinc.

“China’s plan effectively assures long-term demand stability in the metals sector,” said a senior analyst at a domestic brokerage. “That, coupled with easing trade tensions, has reignited investor enthusiasm across global commodity markets.”

Top Metal Gainers: NALCO, Hindalco, Vedanta Lead the Charge

Among individual stocks, NALCO rose over 4 per cent, buoyed by rising aluminium prices and positive export prospects. Hindalco Industries gained more than 3 per cent, briefly touching a 52-week high of Rs 826.50, after its US-based subsidiary Novelis announced that its fire-damaged Oswego plant will resume operations by December-end, earlier than expected.

Vedanta and Hindustan Copper also advanced over 3 per cent, while Hindustan Zinc, NMDC, Jindal Stainless Steel, SAIL, and Jindal Steel & Power traded with gains between 1–2 per cent.

Positive Sentiment May Sustain if Global Trends Hold

Analysts believe that while the near-term rally in metal stocks is largely sentiment-driven, the combination of improved global cues and strong domestic demand could keep the sector buoyant.

If the Fed’s policy easing continues and China’s industrial recovery stays on track, Indian metal producers are likely to witness margin expansion and earnings stability in the coming quarters.

“The sector is finally seeing synchronized global tailwinds,” said an analyst. “From trade relief to supply constraints and monetary support, all factors are aligning — and that’s rare.”

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