Reliance Industries Set for Strong Q1; O2C Division Poised for Turnaround

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to post a strong performance in the June quarter (Q1 FY25), driven by improving margins in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, continued subscriber additions in Jio, and robust momentum in its retail business.

Analysts expect net profit to surge 40% year-on-year, signalling a solid comeback for the conglomerate.

O2C Business May Lead the Recovery

After a challenging phase in the previous year, Reliance’s O2C division is likely to deliver a turnaround this quarter. The recovery is seen coming from better refining and chemical margins, which are expected to significantly boost the company’s overall profitability.

The O2C business is projected to grow 19–20%, supporting the consolidated EBITDA gains.

Retail and Jio Continue to Show Strength

In addition to O2C, strong growth in Reliance Retail and Jio is expected to drive overall operational performance.

• Retail is witnessing healthy consumer demand across segments.

• Jio continues to see robust subscriber additions and stable ARPU, further fueling earnings.

The company’s retail and digital arms are expected to contribute significantly to both revenue and EBITDA growth.

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Profit and Revenue Projections Show Upbeat Sentiment

As per a survey of nine analysts, Reliance’s consolidated revenue for the June quarter is projected at ₹2.46 lakh crore, up 6% from last year.

EBITDA is estimated to rise by 16% to around ₹44,961 crore, while net profit may jump to ₹21,233 crore, a 40% increase from ₹15,138 crore reported in the same quarter last year.

This would also be an improvement from the ₹19,407 crore profit posted in Q4.

The consolidated EBITDA growth of 15.4% YoY and 2.1% QoQ is largely expected to come from the O2C, retail, and digital segments, although some offset may occur due to softness in the exploration and production (E&P) segment.

One-Time Gain Adds Further Upside

Reliance’s bottom line will also benefit from a one-time post-tax gain of ₹9,000 crore related to the stake sale in Asian Paints, which will further strengthen its Q1 performance.

Kelvinator Acquisition Ahead of Results

Adding to the buzz ahead of the earnings report, Reliance Retail announced the acquisition of the iconic home appliance brand Kelvinator. This move marks the group’s aggressive push into the consumer durables market, opening new avenues for growth in a fast-expanding segment.

The Kelvinator acquisition reflects Reliance’s continued ambition to diversify and scale its retail offerings.

With strong numbers expected across key segments, and a one-time gain boosting the profit figures, Reliance appears set to report one of its best quarterly performances in recent times.

All eyes are now on the actual earnings report to confirm if RIL delivers on the upbeat projections.

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