RJio Seeks $140-150 Billion Valuation Ahead of IPO, Eyes Higher ARPUs
Reliance Industries’ telecom arm, Jio Infocomm, is targeting a valuation of $140-150 billion ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) scheduled for next year. The company plans to boost average revenue per user (ARPU) through a combination of tariff hikes and higher data consumption, industry sources said.
According to analysts, Jio may implement a tariff increase in early 2026, with the goal of taking the ARPU to ₹220 per month, potentially even higher depending on market acceptance.
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth Expected
Motilal Oswal, in a post-earnings note on Reliance Industries, estimated that FY25-28 revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR could reach approximately 16%, 19%, and 24%, respectively. These projections are driven by tariff hike flow-through in wireless services and accelerated adoption of fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband offerings.
The enterprise valuation of RJio is pegged at ₹12.4 trillion ($141 billion), based on discounted cash flow analysis and an estimated 13 times EBITDA of December 2027 forecasts.
Despite this, Jio has clarified that there are no immediate plans for a tariff hike, though analysts continue to model a 15% or ₹50 per month increase in the base pack starting December 2025.
Also Read : Struggling Companies Rebrand as Crypto Firms Amid Market Trend
ARPU Trajectory and Subscriber Strategy
Jio’s ARPU has steadily risen over the past year, from ₹195 to ₹211, reflecting incremental tariff increases and higher data usage. Analysts estimate that ARPU may further increase by ₹6-8 in the next two quarters, suggesting a likely ARPU of ₹225 per month by mid-2026. However, this may fall short of the ₹230 ARPU target required to fully support the IPO valuation unless subscriber growth is ramped up.
Experts note that beyond tariff hikes, Jio could leverage bundled services, value-added packages, and data consumption strategies to achieve higher ARPUs without risking subscriber churn.
“Discarding tariff, ramping up data usage and bundles with value-added services are the company’s next best bet,” said a telecom analyst speaking on condition of anonymity.
Regulatory and Market Considerations
Concerns over tariff adjustments have surfaced amid reports that Jio and another telecom operator had withdrawn entry-level plans. TRAI Chairman Anil Kumar Lahoti clarified that competitive entry-level plans remain available, ensuring no adverse impact on consumers seeking low-cost options.
Analysts caution that higher ARPU must be backed by a strong subscriber base to justify the lofty IPO valuation. To balance this, Jio may increasingly focus on B2B solutions and home broadband growth.
Fixed Broadband and ARPU Support
Jio’s home broadband business has emerged as a key driver of blended ARPU, complementing mobile tariffs. Equity research firm Jeffries expects Jio’s ARPU to rise at an 11% CAGR to ₹272 over FY25-28, led by three planned tariff hikes of 10% each in 3QFY26, FY27, and FY28.
Motilal Oswal also raised its FY26-28 revenue and EBITDA estimates by around 1%, citing higher net adds in fixed broadband and the corresponding boost to blended ARPUs.
“Any delay in tariff hike would pose downside risks,” Motilal Oswal analysts noted, highlighting the importance of timely price adjustments in achieving revenue and profitability targets.
IPO Outlook and Market Implications
The upcoming IPO of Jio is poised to be one of the largest in Indian corporate history, with valuations potentially exceeding $140 billion. Achieving the target ARPU is critical not only for investor confidence but also for validating growth projections embedded in the IPO pricing.
Equity experts suggest that strategically designed tariff plans and value-added bundles may help Jio achieve the desired ARPU without significant subscriber losses, ensuring a smooth path to a successful IPO.
Conclusion: ARPU Growth Key to Jio’s IPO Success
Jio’s strategy to boost ARPU through tariff hikes, higher data usage, and broadband expansion reflects a calculated approach to maximize enterprise value ahead of the IPO. While regulatory scrutiny and market competition remain, analysts agree that a blend of subscriber growth and revenue optimization will be central to achieving the company’s $140-150 billion valuation target.
With the IPO expected to attract significant domestic and international investor interest, ARPU trajectory, tariff policy, and broadband penetration will remain under close watch as critical indicators of Jio’s valuation and market performance.
