India’s Limited Leverage Over Western Rivers and Water Flow Control
India’s decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, announced on April 25, 2025, by stopping water from the Baglihar dam on the Chenab and the Salal dam on the Ravi, is a significant geopolitical move. Yet, the immediate impact on Pakistan is expected to be minimal. Pakistan currently draws nearly 93% of the water from the Indus system for agriculture—a sector contributing 24% to its GDP. However, with the volume of water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) being 2.5 times greater than India’s share from the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), the disruption in supply does not yet pose a serious threat to Pakistan’s agriculture.
Highlights
Pakistan relies on 99 BCM of water from western rivers, while India receives 41 BCM from eastern rivers.
India’s move to halt water flow affects cities like Lahore, Islamabad, and Peshawar indirectly.
Lack of real-time flood data during the monsoons could hurt Pakistan more than the water stoppage itself.
Minimal Storage Capacity Restricts India’s Options on the Western Rivers
One of the main challenges for India is the lack of significant water storage infrastructure on the western rivers. India’s hydroelectric plants (HEPs) along these rivers—such as Salal, Chutak, and others—are primarily run-of-river projects, characterized by minimal water storage. With capacities ranging from 44 MW to 690 MW, these plants harness the natural flow rather than store water, limiting India’s ability to control volumes flowing into Pakistan.
Moreover, India must balance its moves with the safety of its own citizens. For example, on April 22, 2025, after heavy rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir, gates of the Salal dam had to be opened to prevent flooding in downstream areas, demonstrating the operational complexities involved.
Highlights
India has no mega dams on the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers yet.
Run-of-river hydro projects have minimal storage capacity, limiting control over flow.
Flood management remains a higher priority for India during monsoons and ice-melt seasons.
Advances in Eastern River Infrastructure: Gains but Challenges Remain
On the eastern rivers, India has made notable strides. The Shahpurkandi dam project in Punjab, delayed for 45 years, is finally nearing readiness, though its hydropower plants are still pending commissioning. Existing infrastructure like the Bhakra Nangal dam on the Sutlej, and the Pong and Pandoh dams on the Beas, already give India greater control over the eastern rivers. Additionally, the Madhopur-Beas link canal and the Ranjit Sagar HEP on the Ravi further bolster India’s ability to regulate water flow toward Pakistan.
The Ujh multipurpose project, under slow development, is seen as a crucial next step. Once operational, it could allow India to harness almost the entire flow from the eastern rivers internally, maximizing agricultural and industrial usage.
Highlights
India controls much of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi waters through major dam projects.
The Ujh multipurpose project remains critical for full control over eastern rivers.
Significant delays and low projected returns are hampering faster project completion.
Strategic Roadmap: Building Mega Infrastructure to Serve Domestic Needs
Experts believe that India’s focus should shift from withholding water from Pakistan to building extensive internal water management systems for its own needs. With the western rivers flowing through Indian territory, the opportunity lies in tapping their potential domestically. Commentators like Tushar Gupta suggest that India could model massive projects like China’s Three Gorges Dam or the South-North Water Transfer Project to create large-scale canal systems that redistribute water to regions like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and even Gujarat.
At present, four projects—Kiru, Kwar, Ratle, and Pakal Dul—are under construction on the western rivers, but these are still relatively modest in scale. Achieving meaningful leverage and economic gains would require investments in mega dams, massive storage facilities, and robust canal networks across multiple states.
Highlights
Experts advocate massive water storage and transfer projects modeled after Chinese infrastructure.
Kiru, Kwar, Ratle, and Pakal Dul projects are under construction but not large enough for game-changing impact.
Major beneficiaries of expanded canal networks could include J&K, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.
