Sensex Crashes as Geopolitical Tensions and Crude Oil Spike Rattle Markets

The Indian stock market opened with a sharp decline on Monday, driven by geopolitical concerns, a rise in crude oil prices, and weak global cues. At around 10 a.m., the Sensex had plunged 918.50 points or 1.11% to 81,489.67, while the Nifty fell 283 points or 1.13% to 24,829.40, signaling broad-based selling across sectors.

Top Losers in Early Trade

Major drag on the indices came from frontline stocks such as Infosys, Shriram Finance, JSW Steel, TCS, and Wipro, which declined up to 3%. The IT and financial sectors, in particular, saw heavy pressure.

Key Reasons Behind the Market Sell-Off

1. Crude Oil Price Surge

Brent crude rose nearly 2% to $78/barrel, while WTI crude was up 1.7% near $75/barrel after US airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. Iran’s parliament’s proposal to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil supply route, added to concerns.

A sharp rise in global oil prices is negative for India, which relies heavily on oil imports. Higher crude increases the trade deficit, raises inflation risks, and impacts corporate margins.

2. India VIX Jumps

The India VIX, which measures market volatility, surged 5% to 14.34, reflecting growing investor nervousness amid geopolitical uncertainty. Rising VIX typically signals a risk-off sentiment.

3. Middle East Escalations

The US strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities have worsened tensions in the region. While market expert V K Vijayakumar noted that the Strait of Hormuz has never actually been closed before, the threat itself was enough to spook investors.

4. Weak Global Cues

Asian markets opened weak with indices like Kospi, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng in the red. US markets had also ended lower on Friday, and Wall Street futures remained under pressure, dragging global sentiment down.

5. Rupee Under Pressure

The rupee weakened by 17 paise to 86.72 against the dollar in early trade, hurt by rising crude prices, a stronger greenback, and falling domestic equities. According to forex experts, the pressure may persist if crude continues to rise.

6. IT Sector Hit After Accenture Earnings

The Nifty IT index declined over 1%, after Accenture flagged lower growth and rising macro uncertainties in its latest earnings. This triggered a sell-off in top Indian IT stocks like Infosys and TCS.

Technical Outlook: Upside Capped for Now

According to Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit, Nifty’s inability to hold Friday’s highs indicates resistance near the 25,000 mark.

“Upsides look capped at 25,200–25,460. If Nifty slips below 25,045, it may test support at 24,865 or 24,827. A decisive fall below 24,500–24,440 would signal trend reversal,” he added.

Conclusion

The Indian stock market’s decline today is a result of a combination of global geopolitical risks, rising crude oil prices, and domestic concerns around currency weakness and sectoral earnings. Investors are advised to stay cautious and monitor key global events closely, especially developments in the Middle East and oil markets.

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