Traditional Equity Analysts Move Into Private Markets Amid OpenAI-Led Disruption

OpenAI Era Pushes Wall Street Equity Analysts Toward Private-Market Research

In a rapidly evolving financial landscape, the OpenAI era is redefining how Wall Street approaches equity research. With private tech giants like OpenAI, SpaceX and other high-growth unlisted companies gaining unprecedented influence, major global banks are racing to expand their research coverage beyond public markets. As investors increasingly seek insight into private firms that can shape — or disrupt — publicly traded companies, traditional equity analysts are being pushed into uncharted territory.

The shift marks a fundamental rethinking of the research business, one long anchored in public disclosures, quarterly filings and listed-company metrics. Now, the expanding dominance of private firms is drawing analysts into a domain where information is scarce, competitive intelligence is opaque and traditional valuation tools often fall short.

Banks Ramp Up Private-Asset Research as Investor Demand Intensifies

Morgan Stanley last week joined the growing list of banks rolling out dedicated research products covering private companies, aligning itself with peers such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and UBS. The goal: to provide investors with actionable insights on high-value private firms that increasingly shape the fortunes of public-market players.

“The demand from clients is huge,” said Anne Malone, head of US equity research at Citigroup. According to her, investors are motivated by two core reasons:

1. They want to invest directly in private giants like OpenAI, and

2. They want to understand how these companies may pose competitive threats to the publicly listed firms they own.

This sweeping expansion reflects a simple reality of the OpenAI era — private firms are controlling more market share, more innovation velocity and more valuation power than ever before.

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Private Giants Like OpenAI and SpaceX Are Too Big to Ignore

Private companies are no longer emerging upstarts; they are behemoths shaping global markets. According to PitchBook data, almost 1,600 private firms globally now boast valuations above $1 billion, a collective worth of $6.5 trillion — up 22% from last year. OpenAI and SpaceX alone hold valuations that would place them among the top 25 companies in the S&P 500 if listed.

This massive shift in market power is forcing banks to rethink the boundaries of equity research. For investors, understanding private giants is no longer optional — it is essential.

“It matters because they are big enough to invest in, and big enough to challenge your existing investments,” Malone added.

Banks Build New Research Frameworks for the OpenAI Era

To address the challenge of analyzing firms without public disclosures, banks are developing entirely new research frameworks.

• JPMorgan has built a team of specialists supplementing its AI and fintech analysts. It kicked off its private-market coverage with an in-depth report on OpenAI, acknowledging its outsized impact on semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom.

• UBS has already profiled 1,400 private firms and formed a network of more than 2,400 entrepreneurs, connecting them directly with institutional clients.

• Citigroup hired industry veterans like Heath Terry to lead private-tech coverage and curated a list of around 100 influential private firms for regular insights.

• Morgan Stanley shifted multiple analysts from public-equity research to full-time private company coverage, reflecting how deeply the OpenAI era is reshaping job roles.

Banks are also investing heavily in corporate-access platforms that allow clients to meet founders and leadership teams of private companies — something machines cannot replicate.

Research Desks Turn to Alternative Data and Deep Networks

Unlike public companies, private firms do not file quarterly numbers or standardized metrics. This is forcing analysts to rely on:

• Alternative datasets (credit-card spending, traffic patterns, app data)

• Industry expert networks

• Direct engagement with founders

• Customer and supply-chain checks

For example:

• Barclays used proprietary US credit card data in its research on fast-fashion giant Shein.

• JPMorgan cited dozens of expert interviews in its initiation of fintech firm Plaid.

• Morgan Stanley interviewed Neuralink’s cofounders and competitors to understand its market potential.

This shift underscores why private-firm research may be more resistant to automation. As AI accelerates automated analysis of public markets, human-driven investigative research on private companies could become a new safe haven for equity analysts.

Old-School Analysts Face a New Reality in the OpenAI Era

For traditional analysts accustomed to parsing earnings, tracking guidance and predicting quarterly surprises, the move to private-market research represents a dramatic adjustment.

“It’s much harder,” Malone admitted. “You have to piece it together. It’s not nearly as organized and structured as public filings.”

Nonetheless, analysts see this shift as a strategic edge — a way to stay relevant in a world where AI models can digest financial statements faster than humans. The OpenAI era paradoxically protects old-school analysts by pushing them into areas where AI cannot easily compete.

Competition Heats Up as Banks Enter Consulting Territory

Banks entering private-market research will compete with well-established consulting giants:

• McKinsey & Co.

• Bain & Co.

• Gerson Lehrman Group, which connects investors to domain experts

The challenge is clear: prove that sell-side analysts can deliver unique, value-added insights rather than repackaged narratives.

“They must show they add marginal value,” said Ludovic Phalippou, professor at Oxford’s Saïd Business School.

Private-Market Insights Become Key to Client Budgets

Even though private-company research does not directly lead to trading commissions, banks believe it will significantly influence broker votes, where asset managers allocate their research budgets.

“Research is rarely direct monetization,” said Hussein Malik, JPMorgan’s head of global research. “It is the feedback loop from clients — and private-market insights are becoming a unique value proposition.”

Outlook: Private-Market Research Is the New Frontier of Wall Street

As the OpenAI era reshapes technology, industry disruption and investor behaviour, private-company research is poised to become the next major frontier for Wall Street. Banks see it as essential for relevance, analysts view it as a pathway to job security, and investors increasingly depend on it to anticipate how unlisted giants will impact public markets.

In an investing world where private companies are now driving public-market narratives, one truth is clear:
The future of equity research will be defined as much by OpenAI and private-market intelligence as by earnings reports and stock tickers.

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