Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Threaten Apple and India’s Smartphone Export Growth

New Trade Barriers Could Disrupt India’s Electronics Manufacturing and Export Strategy

The expansion plans of global smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Motorola face potential disruption as the United States prepares to impose reciprocal tariffs on Indian-made electronics. Industry experts warn that the move could make manufacturing in India less competitive and impact the country’s growing position as a global electronics hub.

The concerns arise after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would implement retaliatory tariffs starting April 2, targeting countries that impose higher duties on American goods. India currently levies a 16.5% basic customs duty (BCD) and surcharge on U.S.-made smartphones and electronics, which could now face an equivalent tariff in the U.S.

U.S. Tariffs Could Diminish India’s Cost Advantage

The potential imposition of 16.5% reciprocal tariffs on Indian-made smartphones and electronics would undermine the cost advantage that India-based manufacturers currently enjoy over competitors, particularly those in China. While India has positioned itself as an attractive alternative to China for global electronics production, these new tariffs may erode its competitive edge.

Industry executives argue that unless India reduces its import duties on U.S. electronics or reaches a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with Washington, reciprocal tariffs could deter investment in the country’s smartphone manufacturing sector.

“India’s manufacturing sector is already seeing significant investments from global players, but if the cost of exporting to the U.S. rises, companies might rethink expansion plans,” said an executive from a leading electronics manufacturing services (EMS) firm.

India’s Smartphone Export Boom at Risk

India has emerged as a significant export hub for smartphones, with Apple ramping up production to meet international demand. The company is projected to manufacture over 25% of its iPhones in India within the next few years, with a substantial portion being shipped to the U.S.

In January 2025, India’s mobile phone exports surpassed ₹25,000 crore, with the cumulative FY25 exports expected to hit ₹1.80 lakh crore, a 40% year-on-year rise. The India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) reported that iPhones accounted for nearly 70% of India’s total mobile phone export revenue in January alone.

If the U.S. imposes a 16.5% tariff on Indian-made iPhones, it could force Apple to either increase iPhone prices in the U.S. or absorb losses, affecting profit margins.

“Currently, iPhones made in India enter the U.S. at zero duty, making local production highly profitable. If tariffs are imposed, Apple’s pricing strategy will have to change,” said Abhilash Kumar, an analyst at TechInsights.

Apple’s Suppliers Face Major Setbacks

Key Apple suppliers, such as Foxconn and Pegatron, have been shifting production from China to India to diversify supply chains. A recent JP Morgan report revealed that Foxconn’s India production capacity is projected to rise from 11% in 2024 to 21% by 2027.

However, reciprocal tariffs could disrupt Apple’s long-term plans and force the company to reevaluate production strategies.

“If these tariffs are implemented, Apple may consider routing exports through countries that don’t have reciprocal tariffs or renegotiating trade terms,” said Faisal Kawoosa, an analyst at TechArc.

Implications for India’s Electronics Industry

The new trade barriers could impact not only smartphone manufacturers but also the broader electronics industry, including companies producing telecom equipment, wearables, and consumer electronics. Industry leaders are urging the Indian government to negotiate tariff reductions or expedite a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the U.S.

“There’s an urgent need for India to finalize a trade deal that protects our competitive advantage in manufacturing and exports,” said an industry expert from a leading EMS company.

Analysts believe that certain brands or product categories could be exempt from tariffs, depending on diplomatic negotiations. However, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and automotive industries could face additional trade tensions if reciprocal tariffs escalate.

The Future of ‘Make in India’

India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme has played a pivotal role in boosting domestic manufacturing and attracting global players. The scheme, which offers a 5% financial incentive to electronics manufacturers, is set to expire in 2026, raising concerns about the long-term competitiveness of India’s manufacturing ecosystem.

“If the PLI scheme ends in 2026 and reciprocal tariffs are introduced, India’s ability to compete with China could be significantly reduced,” said an industry insider.

While India has made remarkable progress in electronics manufacturing, reciprocal tariffs could slow down its momentum. The next few months will be crucial as trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington determine the fate of billions of dollars in exports and India’s standing in the global smartphone supply chain.