Trump’s August tariff decision puts pressure on Indian copper product exports; domestic demand and alternate markets seen as cushion

Contents

Market Impact & Sectoral View What’s Next for Traders & Investors

July 10, 2025 – Indian copper exporters are bracing for potential trade disruption as the US announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 2025, as part of President Donald Trump’s renewed protectionist push. Analysts expect that Indian exports of copper bars, wires, tubes, and cathodes may come under pressure, especially in the short term, although strong domestic demand may buffer the overall impact.

The US currently accounts for around 12% of India’s 0.2 million tonne copper product exports, primarily in downstream segments, according to ICRA’s Sumit Jhunjhunwala. With tariffs kicking in, these shipments could become less competitive, affecting realisations and near-term margins for key Indian copper players.

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Market Impact & Sectoral View

Most affected products: copper wire rods, bars, cathodes, alloy tubes
Key export markets: US (12%), Saudi Arabia, China
FY25 exports: 0.2 MT copper products
FY24 refined production: 0.509 MT
Domestic demand rising: Power, EV, construction sectors

Yash Sawant of Choice Broking noted that copper exporters may face pricing pressure and trade rerouting challenges. “India will likely need to find alternate export destinations or leverage domestic demand to absorb the shortfall,” he said.

The structural gap in India’s copper sector—created after Vedanta’s Tuticorin smelter shutdown in 2018—has made India a net importer, importing 0.363 MT of refined copper in FY24. Experts say that this import dependency could rise further if global prices soften and surplus Chinese supply redirects toward India.

What’s Next for Traders & Investors

Copper-related stocks like Hindustan Copper, Hindalco, and Vedanta may see short-term volatility. However, analysts at PL Capital and Grant Thornton believe the long-term outlook remains stable given India’s rising copper intensity in EVs, infrastructure, and renewable sectors.

The Ministry of Mines has begun consultations to assess the impact and explore possible relief through the upcoming US-India trade agreement, now extended to end-July.

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