A recent global survey by Allianz Trade highlights the growing pessimism among exporters worldwide following a new wave of US tariffs. According to the study, 42% of companies now anticipate a significant decline in their export revenues, signaling a sharp downturn in global trade confidence. This marks a drastic shift from earlier optimism prior to the tariffs escalation, reflecting heightened uncertainty in international commerce.
The survey, which included responses from 4,500 exporters across key economies such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Britain, the United States, Singapore, and China, was conducted in March and April. It notably captures sentiment before and after the surge of tariffs announced by former President Donald Trump on April 2, a day dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ due to the broad scope of tariffs targeting nearly all major trading partners.
Highlights:
42% of exporters expect significant declines in export revenues due to US tariffs.
Survey covered 4,500 exporters across major global economies.
Dramatic shift from only 5% expecting revenue declines before tariff announcement.
Shift from Optimism to Uncertainty in Global Trade Sentiment
Before the US administration’s tariff escalation, export outlooks were largely positive, with just 5% of surveyed companies anticipating lower export revenues. However, following the announcement, uncertainty and fragmentation have become dominant themes in the global trade environment. Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui emphasized this change, noting that “uncertainty and fragmentation will be with us for a long time,” underscoring the lasting impact of protectionist policies on business confidence.
This shift in sentiment has profound implications for global supply chains and international trade flows. The tariffs not only raise costs for exporters but also contribute to volatile market conditions that can delay investment decisions and disrupt long-term planning.
Highlights:
Export optimism plummeted from 95% to 58% post-tariffs.
Increased trade uncertainty affects supply chains and investment.
Protectionist policies have introduced fragmentation into global markets.
Projected Export Losses Expected to Hit $305 Billion in 2025
The Allianz Trade survey projects that global export losses could reach a staggering $305 billion in 2025 due to the ongoing tariff disputes. This figure illustrates the tangible economic consequences that escalating trade barriers can impose on companies and national economies alike.
The potential revenue shortfalls threaten to dampen growth in export-driven economies and could ripple through industries reliant on international markets. Export-dependent manufacturers and suppliers may face reduced orders, impacting employment and investment levels.
Highlights:
$305 billion in global export losses anticipated for 2025.
Export-driven economies face substantial revenue risks.
Potential negative impact on employment and industrial investment.
Germany Among the Hardest Hit, Exporters Voice Deep Concerns
Given Germany’s heavy reliance on exports, the country’s businesses are expected to feel the impact of US tariffs acutely. The survey found that 39% of German exporters foresee a decline in their export revenues following the tariff announcements, a figure slightly below the global average but indicative of significant unease.
Moreover, German exporters reported greater anxiety regarding geopolitical risks and protectionism, with 35% citing these as critical concerns compared to 29% among exporters in other surveyed nations. This elevated apprehension reflects Germany’s position as one of the world’s largest exporters and its exposure to international trade tensions.
Highlights:
39% of German exporters expect revenue declines post-tariffs.
German exporters more concerned about geopolitical risks than global peers.
Protectionism seen as a growing threat to Germany’s export-driven economy.
Geopolitical Risks and Protectionism Emerge as Key Challenges
The Allianz Trade survey reveals that alongside tariffs, rising geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing exporter sentiment globally. Protectionism is seen not only as a direct threat to trade volumes but also as a factor exacerbating market fragmentation and uncertainty.
Companies are now navigating a more complex environment marked by shifting alliances, regulatory barriers, and unpredictable policy moves. This evolving risk landscape necessitates enhanced risk management strategies and greater agility to mitigate potential disruptions in supply chains.
Highlights:
Geopolitical risks significantly heighten export sector uncertainty.
Protectionism fuels market fragmentation and trade barriers.
Exporters face increased pressure to adopt robust risk mitigation measures.
