Why Did Canara Bank Shares Fall After Q3 Results Despite Profit Growth?

A Mixed Quarter That Spooked the Street

Canara Bank’s December-quarter earnings looked decent on the surface. Profit grew, asset quality remained manageable, and loan growth was stable. Yet, the stock dropped sharply after the results hit the tape. Markets don’t react to headlines alone. They react to what’s missing beneath the headline. And in Canara Bank’s case, the misses were in the core banking engine net interest income, other income, and slippages. Let’s break down exactly what happened.

Key Q3 FY26 Numbers at a Glance

Canara Bank reported its quarterly performance for the quarter ended December 2025, and here are the headline figures that mattered most to analysts and traders:

• Net Profit: ₹4,015 crore

• Year-on-Year Profit Growth: Around 24%

• Net Interest Income (NII): ₹9,632 crore

• NII Growth: Missed Street estimates

• Net Interest Margin (NIM): 2.75%

• Gross NPA: 3.56%

• Net NPA: 0.65%

• Slippages: ₹4,248 crore

• Credit Cost: 0.77% (annualised)

The numbers weren’t bad. But they weren’t clean either. And that’s what the market focused on.

The Core Issue: NII Missed Estimates

Net interest income is the heart of any bank’s earnings. It measures how much money the bank makes from lending after paying interest on deposits. Canara Bank reported ₹9,632 crore in NII, but analysts were expecting higher. The miss raised concerns that margin pressure is creeping in across PSU banks, especially as deposit costs remain sticky while loan yields stabilise.

Margins matter more than profit spikes because margins decide future profitability. The bank’s net interest margin stood at around 2.75%, which was slightly lower sequentially. That subtle dip was enough to trigger selling pressure.

Other Income Disappointment Added to Pressure

Apart from core lending, banks rely heavily on treasury gains, fee income, and trading profits. Canara Bank’s other income came in weaker than expected, which analysts linked to lower treasury gains and softer fee income. This matters because in recent quarters, PSU banks have relied heavily on treasury gains to boost profits. When that engine slows, core business performance gets exposed.

Slippages Jumped: A Hidden Red Flag

One of the biggest surprises was fresh slippages of ₹4,248 crore. Slippages refer to loans that turned bad during the quarter. A spike here signals stress in certain loan segments, even if headline NPA ratios remain stable.

Although the bank maintained gross NPA at 3.56% and net NPA at 0.65%, analysts were uneasy about the fresh inflow of bad loans. Markets often price the future, not the present. Rising slippages suggest potential asset quality pressure ahead.

Credit Cost at Multi-Quarter Low, But With Caveats

Canara Bank reported annualised credit cost at 0.77%, a 17-quarter low. On paper, this is positive because it means provisioning requirements were lower.

But analysts warned that low credit costs might not be sustainable if slippages continue rising. In banking, low provisions today can mean higher provisions tomorrow.

Loan and Deposit Growth Trends

The bank’s loan book and deposit base continued to grow at a steady pace:

• Advances growth: Around low-teens YoY

• Deposits growth: Slightly lower than advances

• CASA ratio: Stable but under pressure as customers shift to term deposits

This is a broader industry trend. High interest rates are pulling money away from savings accounts into fixed deposits, raising banks’ funding costs.

Why Did the Stock Fall After Results?

Despite profit growth, Canara Bank shares declined sharply after the results. The reaction was driven by three key concerns:

1) Core Earnings Weakness

Profit growth was supported by lower provisions, not by strong core lending income. That’s not sustainable long-term.

2) Margin Pressure

NIM declined slightly, and the market fears a prolonged margin compression cycle.

3) Asset Quality Concerns

Fresh slippages jumped, raising doubts about future NPAs.

In short, the market saw a quality issue, not a quantity issue.

How Analysts Interpreted the Results

Brokerages broadly termed the results as mixed to negative.

• Some analysts flagged that PSU banks are entering a phase of margin normalisation after a strong earnings cycle.

• Others noted that while headline NPAs are stable, slippage trends need monitoring.

• A few also pointed out that treasury gains are unlikely to repeat at the same scale going forward.

Big Picture: PSU Bank Cycle Nearing Peak?

Canara Bank’s results also reignited a broader debate in the market:

Is the PSU bank earnings cycle peaking?

Over the past two years, PSU banks delivered record profits driven by:

• High interest rates

• Falling NPAs

• Strong recoveries

• Treasury gains

But now, the cycle may be shifting:

• Deposit costs are rising

• Loan growth is normalising

• Treasury gains are moderating

• Credit costs could rise again

Canara Bank’s quarter looked like an early signal of that transition.

What Should Traders Watch Next

For market participants, the key monitorables going forward include:

• NIM trend in FY26 and FY27

• Slippage and restructuring pipeline

• Retail and SME loan growth sustainability

• Deposit cost trajectory

• Treasury income volatility

If margins stabilise and slippages moderate, the stock could regain momentum. But if margin compression accelerates, PSU bank stocks could underperform.

Final Take

Canara Bank’s Q3 results weren’t weak. They were just not strong enough for a market that had priced in perfection. Profit grew, asset quality stayed stable, and credit cost was low. But NII missed estimates, other income disappointed, and slippages jumped. That combination is exactly what equity markets punish.

For now, Canara Bank remains fundamentally stable, but the earnings narrative is clearly shifting from a boom phase to a normalisation phase. And in markets, transitions are where volatility begins.