Fractal Analytics IPO Draws Attention as GMP Cools Before Opening — Is the Buzz Fading or Just Resetting?

Contents

Issue Structure and Key Dates Shape Investor Planning GMP Trend Shows Cooling Enthusiasm Before Subscription Fractal Analytics IPO Tentative Timetable at a Glance Business Model Tied to AI and Data Analytics Growth Brokerage View Flags Valuation and Attrition Risks Use of Proceeds Signals Expansion and Deleveraging Here’s What Happened Today and Why Traders Reacted What This Means for Investors and Their Portfolios

The upcoming Fractal Analytics IPO is already on investors’ radar, but the latest grey market premium (GMP) trend suggests sentiment has turned more measured ahead of the share sale. The ₹2,834-crore IPO of the AI-driven analytics firm opens for subscription on February 9 and closes on February 11, with listing slated for February 16 on the BSE and NSE.

While early chatter around the issue was strong, the cooling GMP indicates that investors are recalibrating expectations in a market that has become selective about valuations. For a company positioned at the intersection of data analytics and artificial intelligence, the IPO arrives at a time when AI narratives are popular, but pricing discipline is back in focus.

Issue Structure and Key Dates Shape Investor Planning

Fractal Analytics IPO is a book-built issue aggregating to about ₹2,833.90 crore, combining a fresh issue and an offer for sale (OFS). The structure means part of the proceeds will go to the company while a sizeable portion allows existing shareholders to pare stake.

Key IPO details:

Price band: ₹857–₹900 per share
Lot size: 16 shares
Minimum retail investment: ₹14,400 (upper band)
IPO dates: Feb 9–11, 2026
Allotment: Feb 12, 2026
Listing: Feb 16, 2026
Employee discount: ₹85 per share

The total issue size comprises a fresh issue of about ₹1,023 crore and an OFS of about ₹1,810 crore. Post-issue, the company’s equity base will expand, which investors consider while evaluating earnings per share and valuations.

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GMP Trend Shows Cooling Enthusiasm Before Subscription

Grey market signals often provide an informal pulse of sentiment. Fractal Analytics’ GMP has declined from earlier highs. The latest quoted GMP is around ₹78–84, implying a potential listing gain of roughly 9–10% over the upper price band.

Earlier, the premium had reportedly touched levels implying gains of up to 21%, but it has since moderated. Day-wise data shows GMP falling from around ₹180 to near ₹78.

What this indicates:

Initial euphoria has cooled
Investors are becoming valuation-conscious
Listing gains, if any, may be moderate

However, GMP is unofficial and can change quickly based on subscription demand and market mood.

Fractal Analytics IPO Tentative Timetable at a Glance

Here is the tentative IPO schedule for Fractal Analytics, which investors can track to plan their application, fund blocking, and listing-day strategy:

IPO Opens: Monday, February 9, 2026
IPO Closes: Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Allotment Finalisation: Thursday, February 12, 2026
Refund Initiation: Friday, February 13, 2026
Shares Credited to Demat: Friday, February 13, 2026
Listing on BSE & NSE: Monday, February 16, 2026

This relatively tight timeline is typical for mainboard IPOs and allows faster capital rotation for active IPO investors. Traders eyeing listing gains usually watch the allotment outcome and GMP trend closely between February 12–16, as sentiment during this window often shapes listing-day pricing.

Business Model Tied to AI and Data Analytics Growth

Fractal Analytics operates in a niche segment, offering AI-powered analytics solutions to global clients. It leverages in-house research as well as external AI models, serving multinational corporations across four focus industries.

A key positive often cited is client stickiness. The company’s top 10 clients reportedly have an average tenure of over eight years, indicating stable relationships. In a services-driven AI business, such long engagements can provide revenue visibility.

At the same time, the analytics space is becoming more competitive as enterprises build in-house capabilities and AI tools become more accessible.

Brokerage View Flags Valuation and Attrition Risks

SBI Securities has assigned a “Neutral” rating to the IPO, highlighting both strengths and concerns.

At the upper band of ₹900, the issue is valued at about 78.9 times price-to-earnings based on post-issue capital. This is considered elevated relative to the company’s growth profile. Revenue grew at an 18% CAGR between FY23 and FY25, and about 20% YoY in H1 FY26 — healthy, but not hyper-growth.

The brokerage also flagged attrition levels of over 15%, which matter in a talent-driven analytics business.

“Considering the elevated valuation, we assign a neutral rating and would like to track performance for a few quarters post listing,” the note said.

Risks such as client insourcing and AI-led disruption could also impact the operating model.

Use of Proceeds Signals Expansion and Deleveraging

Proceeds from the fresh issue are earmarked for multiple purposes, including:

Repayment or prepayment of borrowings at Fractal USA
Investment in R&D and AI capabilities
Setting up new offices in India
Funding acquisitions and strategic initiatives
Sales and marketing under Fractal Alpha
General corporate purposes

These uses indicate a focus on growth and balance-sheet strengthening, which long-term investors typically prefer over purely secondary sales.

Here’s What Happened Today and Why Traders Reacted

Ahead of the IPO opening, market participants focused on the falling GMP and brokerage notes. Traders looking for quick listing gains became slightly cautious as premiums narrowed.

Traders reacted to:

Cooling GMP trend
High valuation multiples
Neutral brokerage stance
Broader market selectivity in IPOs

As a result, conversations shifted from “blockbuster listing” to “reasonable but selective bet.”

What This Means for Investors and Their Portfolios

For investors, the Fractal Analytics IPO offers exposure to the AI and analytics theme, but at a premium valuation. The decision to subscribe may depend on risk appetite and investment horizon.

Investor takeaways: