Dalal Street is set for a significant supply shock over the next three months, with **85 IPO share lock‑in periods expiring and roughly $53 billion (₹4.4 lakh cr approx.) worth of shares eligible to trade. This isn’t merely a calendar event; it marks a concentrated release of previously restricted stock that could influence prices and liquidity, especially in mid- and small-cap segments.
What’s Unlocked & When
Lock‑ins lifting between Feb 16 and May 27, 2026, span one‑, three‑, and six‑month periods. Key unlocks include:
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Feb 16—Tenneco Clean Air India ~14 m shares (∼3%)
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Feb 17—Capillary Technologies ~3 m shares (∼4%)
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Feb 18—Amagi Media Labs ~11 m shares (∼5%)
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Feb 23—Shadowfax Technologies ~35 m shares (~6%); Vikram Solar ~104 m (~29%)
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Feb 25–26—Shreeji Shipping, Patel Retail, and Gem Aromatics unlock meaningful blocks
…and dozens more across sectors as lock‑in ceilings expire.
Why Traders Should Care
✔ Incremental supply spike—Concentrated unlocks can add fresh float precisely when markets are digesting valuations higher than peers, potentially elevating sell pressure.
✔ Liquidity dynamics—Stocks with low free float may see disproportionate impacts on volume and price action when large blocks become tradable.
✔ FII behavior mattering—With foreign institutional investors cautious on relative valuations, new supply may coincide with increased volatility, especially in smaller names.
Why It Matters Today
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Immediate Price Sensitivity: Early unlocks in Feb 16–18 could trigger near-term profit booking in select IPOs, affecting intraday and short-term swing trades.
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Liquidity Watch: Traders must monitor free float changes, as sudden supply in low-liquidity names may widen spreads and amplify volatility.
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Sentiment Indicator: Lock-in expiries often reflect investor confidence; large sell-offs can signal caution even if broader markets are stable.
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Strategic Positioning: Short-term traders can leverage calendar-based supply events for tactical entries/exits in mid- and small-cap IPOs.
Market Impact—What to Watch
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Pressure in recently listed stocks: Early investor exits (QIBs/HNIs) often lean toward profit booking soon after lock‑in expiry.
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Price sensitivity in low‑float names: Heavy unlock days could compress bid‑ask spreads or trigger transient down‑moves.
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Sector spillovers: Mid‑cap tech and infra names with clustered expiries may lead sector peers to react ahead of data.
Trader Playbook (Short‑Term)
1) Mark unlock dates on your calendar; clusters around late Feb and March warrant close attention.
2) Monitor FII flows; upticks in selling alongside unlocks may signal broader sentiment shifts.
3) Manage risk in recently listed, low‑float stocks; consider tighter stops or scaled entries.
Bottom line: 85 lock-in expiries unleashing ~$53 billion in tradable stock is a material supply event, not just a footnote. The market’s ability to absorb this supply will be a key driver of near‑term price action, particularly if broader sentiment turns cautious.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: What is an IPO lock-in period?
A: It’s the legally binding period after an IPO during which promoters, early investors, and employees cannot sell shares publicly.
Q2: Why do lock-in expiries matter for traders?
A: They release previously restricted shares into the market, increasing supply and potential price volatility, especially in small- and mid-cap stocks.
Q3: How can I track which IPOs are unlocking?
A: By monitoring the official stock exchange filings (NSE/BSE) and IPO prospectuses listing lock-in expiration dates.
Q4: Does every lock-in expiry cause price drops?
A: Not necessarily. Impact depends on free float, market sentiment, and participation from retail/FII investors.
Q5: How should short-term traders react?
A: Traders can plan entries/exits around heavy unlock dates, use stop-losses, and watch liquidity and sector spillovers for tactical moves.
