AI Doomsday Scenario Rattles Markets as Investors Reassess the Future of IT and Jobs
A controversial artificial intelligence scenario study by Citrini Research has unsettled global markets and triggered sharp reactions in technology stocks, as investors grapple with the possibility that rapid advances in machine intelligence could reshape corporate earnings, labour markets, and economic stability far sooner than previously expected. The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future,” presents a detailed hypothetical narrative describing how accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence could disrupt service-sector employment, weaken export-driven economies, and force policymakers into difficult economic choices.
Although the authors explicitly state that the document is a scenario rather than a formal forecast, its sweeping conclusions and vivid storytelling have amplified investor anxiety at a time when artificial intelligence is already emerging as one of the most closely watched themes in global markets. Technology stocks reacted sharply as traders reassessed long-term earnings assumptions, with Indian IT exporters such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Wipro facing selling pressure amid fears that automation could erode demand for outsourced software services. More than the specific projections themselves, the report has intensified a broader shift in investor thinking, where structural technological disruption is beginning to rival macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and inflation as a primary market driver.
The reaction underscores how quickly markets can respond to narratives that challenge long-standing growth assumptions, particularly when those narratives intersect with transformative technologies whose economic effects are still unfolding.
A small research group’s hypothetical scenario unexpectedly captures global attention
Citrini Research, founded in 2023 by investor James van Geelen, is a relatively small thematic research firm that focuses on long-term investment ideas tied to technological and economic change. The group’s latest report gained rapid traction across financial circles because of its unconventional structure: rather than presenting forecasts in traditional analytical language, the study is written as a retrospective account from the year 2028, describing how artificial intelligence reshaped the global economy over the preceding years. This narrative approach transformed what might otherwise have been a niche research paper into a widely discussed market document.
The authors stress that the study is not meant to predict the future but rather to explore a plausible scenario that has received limited attention from investors. By framing the analysis as a thought experiment, the report attempts to map out a chain of economic consequences that could unfold if artificial intelligence adoption continues to accelerate and automation costs continue to fall. Nevertheless, markets tend to respond less to disclaimers than to implications. The detailed timeline described in the report created a sense of immediacy around risks that had previously been viewed as distant or theoretical.
In effect, the study has functioned as a catalyst for broader debate about the pace at which artificial intelligence could reshape corporate profitability and labour markets.
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Markets respond to structural risk narratives rather than immediate earnings changes
The strong market reaction to the Citrini Research report reflects the growing importance of structural risk narratives in equity valuation. Traditional market volatility is often driven by interest rate expectations, inflation surprises, or earnings revisions. In contrast, the report highlights a potential long-term transformation of the global services economy, suggesting that artificial intelligence could permanently alter demand patterns for human-led software development and consulting services.
According to the scenario outlined in the study, automated coding systems could dramatically reduce the cost of developing and maintaining software applications, potentially allowing companies to perform tasks internally that were previously outsourced to large IT service providers. If the marginal cost of coding falls close to the cost of electricity, as the report suggests, pricing power across the IT services industry could weaken substantially. Under such conditions, revenue growth assumptions that underpin current stock valuations would need to be reconsidered.
Markets often react strongly to narratives that introduce uncertainty into widely accepted growth stories. The global IT services industry has long been viewed as a stable and predictable source of earnings expansion. The possibility that artificial intelligence could disrupt that stability — even gradually — is enough to trigger repricing across the sector.
The report’s bleak scenario places India’s technology-driven economy under scrutiny
The report presents a particularly pessimistic scenario for India, reflecting the country’s heavy reliance on information technology services exports. India’s software services sector has played a central role in generating employment, supporting foreign exchange inflows, and sustaining corporate earnings growth over the past two decades. Because of this dependence, any perceived structural threat to the industry tends to have outsized implications for market sentiment.
In the scenario described by Citrini Research, artificial intelligence reduces global demand for outsourced coding and maintenance work, leading to accelerating contract cancellations across major Indian IT companies by 2027. The resulting decline in services exports weakens India’s external balances and contributes to currency depreciation. In the report’s hypothetical timeline, the rupee falls sharply as the services surplus that historically supported India’s external accounts begins to shrink.
While such projections are speculative, they highlight a vulnerability that investors increasingly recognise: India’s economic growth model remains closely tied to the performance of its technology sector. Even hypothetical threats to that model can influence investor positioning, particularly when they align with broader global concerns about automation and productivity shifts.
The prospect of mass white-collar job disruption adds to investor anxiety
One of the most widely discussed elements of the report is its portrayal of large-scale disruption in white-collar employment. The scenario suggests that artificial intelligence systems capable of autonomous coding and decision-making could replace significant portions of routine knowledge work, particularly in areas such as software maintenance and technical support. Such a shift would represent a major departure from previous waves of automation, which primarily affected manufacturing and low-skill occupations.
The report envisions a future in which new jobs continue to emerge in areas such as artificial intelligence supervision, infrastructure maintenance, and safety oversight. However, it argues that the number of new roles created may be smaller than the number of traditional positions displaced. The authors suggest that while humans would remain involved in strategic and creative tasks, the overall demand for skilled service-sector labour could decline.
This narrative resonates with investors because employment trends are closely linked to consumer spending and economic growth. If automation were to significantly reduce white-collar employment growth, the effects could extend well beyond the technology sector into housing, retail, and financial services.
Policymakers may face difficult choices in managing the economic transition
The Citrini Research study also explores potential policy responses to artificial intelligence-driven disruption, arguing that governments may need new fiscal tools to manage the transition. Among the proposals discussed is the idea of taxing productivity gains generated by artificial intelligence, with the proceeds used to fund social safety nets and workforce retraining programs.
Such policy discussions reflect growing global concern about how the economic benefits of artificial intelligence will be distributed. If productivity gains accrue primarily to technology owners while employment growth slows, income inequality could widen and consumer demand could weaken. Governments may therefore face pressure to design policies that support displaced workers while preserving incentives for innovation.
Although these policy ideas remain theoretical, their inclusion in the report highlights the broader economic implications of artificial intelligence beyond corporate earnings.
Skeptics argue the scenario assumes too much disruption too quickly
Despite the strong market reaction, many economists and analysts have expressed skepticism about the report’s assumptions. Critics argue that the scenario requires several extreme conditions to occur simultaneously, including near-total automation of knowledge work, minimal policy intervention, and slow institutional adaptation. While each of these developments is conceivable on its own, the likelihood of all occurring together is widely debated.
Economic history suggests that technological transformations typically unfold over extended periods, allowing labour markets and business models time to adjust. Previous waves of automation ultimately created new industries and employment opportunities even as older roles disappeared. Many analysts therefore view the Citrini scenario as an interesting stress test rather than a realistic baseline projection.
Nevertheless, even critics acknowledge that artificial intelligence represents a significant long-term uncertainty for global economies and financial markets.
The debate itself may matter more than the predictions
Ultimately, the significance of the Citrini Research report lies less in its specific forecasts than in the debate it has triggered among investors and policymakers. The study has forced market participants to confront the possibility that artificial intelligence could reshape economic structures faster than traditional models assume.
Even if the report’s most pessimistic projections fail to materialise, the questions it raises about automation, employment, and productivity are likely to remain central to investment decisions in the coming years. As artificial intelligence capabilities continue to evolve, markets will increasingly attempt to price not only current earnings but also the durability of business models in an automated future.
The immediate takeaway for investors is that artificial intelligence is no longer merely a technology theme. It is becoming a structural market force capable of influencing valuations across sectors — from IT services and real estate to banking and consumer demand.
And as long as that uncertainty persists, volatility around the AI narrative is likely to remain a defining feature of global markets.
