Gold, silver ETFs hit fresh lifetime highs — is this the start of a bigger safe-haven trade or a risky chase?
Gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) surged up to 8 percent on January 21, mirroring the sharp spike in underlying metal prices as investors globally rushed toward safety. The rally comes at a time when equities across major markets remain under pressure due to escalating geopolitical risks linked to US President Donald Trump’s Greenland policy, renewed tariff threats against European nations, and rising uncertainty over global trade stability.
Gold and silver prices touched fresh lifetime highs, reinforcing the narrative that investors are increasingly positioning for risk-off conditions rather than chasing equity upside.
Market participants say this shift is not merely speculative momentum but reflects a deeper fear trade emerging across global asset classes.
Gold ETFs soar as futures cross record levels
Gold futures with February expiry jumped more than 5 percent to cross ₹1.58 lakh per 10 grams, while longer-dated contracts extended gains even further. April contracts climbed to ₹1,66,048 per 10 grams, and June contracts surged to ₹1,71,620 per 10 grams, both marking fresh all-time highs.
The sharp move was quickly reflected in ETF performance:
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Invesco India Gold ETF surged nearly 8% to a fresh 52-week high of ₹13,900
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ICICI Pru Gold ETF, LIC Gold ETF, Motilal Oswal Gold ETF, Edelweiss Gold ETF and Axis Gold ETF gained over 7% each
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Tata Gold ETF, Groww Gold ETF, Kotak Gold ETF and Nippon Gold ETF (Goldbees) rose around 6–7%
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HDFC Gold ETF, SBI Gold ETF, Mirae Asset Gold ETF and UTI Gold ETF climbed over 5%
This broad-based participation across ETF categories highlights strong retail as well as institutional inflows.
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Silver ETFs follow gold higher as silver crosses ₹3.3 lakh/kg
Silver continued to outperform gold in percentage terms, reinforcing its reputation as the more volatile cousin in the precious metals space.
Silver futures with March expiry jumped about 3.5 percent to cross ₹3.3 lakh per kilogram for the first time ever. Contracts for May and July surged to ₹3.47 lakh and ₹3.61 lakh per kg, respectively.
Silver ETF performance reflected this strength:
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Tata Silver ETF jumped around 7% to hit a fresh 52-week high
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Aditya Birla Silver ETF and Mirae Asset Silver ETF gained around 5% each
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Axis Silver ETF and Nippon Silver ETF (Silverbees) rose nearly 4%
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Zerodha Silver ETF, ICICI Pru Silver ETF, DSP Silver ETF, Edelweiss Silver ETF and UTI Silver ETF gained over 3%
The sharp gains indicate growing appetite for silver not just as a hedge, but also as a tactical return-generating asset.
Here’s what happened today and why traders reacted
The surge in precious metals coincided with weakness across global equities. Rising uncertainty over Trump’s aggressive stance on Greenland, potential tariffs on eight European countries, and Europe’s increasingly firm opposition have unsettled risk markets.
“There is risk-off sentiment in global markets now in response to Trump’s Greenland policy, the threatened tariffs on eight European countries and Europe’s hardening anti-Trump stance,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
He added that global stock markets are under pressure and investors are rotating toward safety.
“If the threatened tariffs come into effect, Europe will retaliate and this will lead to a trade war with bad consequences for global trade and global growth. In that scenario, equities will face more selling while gold will continue to benefit,” he said.
Traders responded by increasing exposure to gold and silver ETFs, which offer liquidity and ease of execution compared to physical metals.
What is driving the rally beyond headlines
Market experts point to multiple structural and tactical factors supporting precious metals:
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Geopolitical uncertainty: Rising risk of trade conflict between the US and Europe
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Currency risk: Potential dollar weakness if Europe accelerates diversification away from US assets
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Safe-haven demand: Investors protecting portfolios amid global volatility
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Speculative momentum: Short-term traders riding strong price action
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Portfolio diversification: Asset managers increasing gold allocation as hedge
As Reuters quoted Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, “Trump’s disruptive policy approach to international affairs and desire to see lower interest rates suit precious metals very well, as reflected by gold and silver’s rampant run.”
What lies ahead for gold and silver prices
Brokerage views remain broadly constructive, though with caution on near-term froth.
HDFC Securities said the long-term bullish trend in gold and silver remains intact and both metals still have the potential to deliver strong returns in 2026. However, it warned that a potential cut in import duties in the upcoming Union Budget could act as a short-term headwind for domestic prices.
The brokerage highlighted SBI Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF as preferred options and advised investors to allocate around 10 percent of their portfolio to precious metals, with flexibility to increase exposure based on risk appetite.
What impact this rally has on investor portfolios
For investors, the sharp move in gold and silver reinforces their role as portfolio stabilisers. In recent sessions, while equities have shown volatility, precious metals have delivered strong positive returns.
Experts believe gold and silver now play three key roles in portfolios:
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Hedge against geopolitical risk
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Protection against equity drawdowns
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Diversifier during currency and macro uncertainty
However, aggressive lump-sum buying at record highs may expose investors to near-term corrections if sentiment cools suddenly.
How investors can approach gold and silver exposure now
Rather than chasing prices, experts recommend a disciplined approach.
“Gold and silver can play a meaningful role in portfolio diversification, but the way investors access these assets matters,” said Vishal Kapoor, CEO of Bandhan AMC.
He explained that Fund of Fund (FoF) structures allow investors to avoid demat requirements, start SIPs from as low as ₹100, and reduce operational barriers.
This aligns with broader expert consensus:
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Avoid heavy lump-sum buying at peaks
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Prefer staggered allocation via SIPs
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Use ETFs or FoFs for transparency and liquidity
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Treat precious metals as portfolio insurance, not short-term speculation
The bottom line for traders and investors
Gold and silver’s rally is being driven by genuine macro uncertainty rather than hype alone. With geopolitical risks still unresolved and global equity markets fragile, precious metals may continue to attract flows.
At the same time, record prices demand discipline. For long-term investors, gradual accumulation remains sensible. For traders, volatility will remain high and risk management becomes critical.
As markets navigate a complex mix of geopolitics, policy unpredictability and macro uncertainty, gold and silver are once again proving why they remain relevant in every serious investor’s portfolio.
