The mood on Dalal Street turned uneasy on Friday. It wasn’t a crash, but it definitely wasn’t a calm session either. The Sensex slipped around 600 points, the Nifty dropped below the 25,300 mark, and roughly ₹4 lakh crore in investor wealth disappeared in a single session.
Markets had been sitting near recent highs. But as Budget weekend approached, investors chose caution over optimism. And a mix of domestic and global factors pushed traders to hit the sell button.
Markets Retreat From Highs as Investors Turn Defensive
Benchmark indices came under pressure early in the session and extended losses through the day. The Sensex fell as much as 625 points to an intraday low near 81,941, while the Nifty dropped close to 194 points to around 25,224, decisively slipping below the psychological 25,300 level.
The selloff erased nearly ₹4 lakh crore in market capitalisation, shrinking the total value of BSE-listed companies to about ₹455.7 lakh crore. This wasn’t a single-trigger fall. It was a cocktail of concerns hitting the market at the same time.
Budget Jitters Take Centre Stage
The biggest overhang was the upcoming Union Budget, scheduled for a rare weekend session. Investors are watching closely for signals on fiscal discipline, growth priorities, tax policy, and spending plans.With expectations high and uncertainty higher, many traders preferred to trim positions rather than gamble on Budget outcomes.
Market experts pointed out that geopolitical risks and rising crude prices could hurt India’s macro outlook, even as domestic growth projections remain solid. The Economic Survey’s FY27 GDP growth forecast of around 6.8% to 7.2% offers a positive medium-term picture, but near-term uncertainty still dominates sentiment. Foreign investors are another concern. Analysts noted that FIIs continue to follow a “sell India” strategy unless the Budget delivers strong policy signals that bring them back.
Rupee Weakness Adds Pressure
The rupee hovered near record-low levels against the US dollar, trading around 91.92 after touching an all-time low of 91.9850 in the previous session. The currency has fallen about 2.3% this month, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2022. Dollar demand, NDF market dynamics, and a mismatch between demand and supply have kept the rupee under stress. A weak rupee raises imported inflation risks and often triggers foreign fund outflows, both negative for equities.
Rising Crude Oil Prices Trigger Macro Worries
Crude oil surged to five-month highs amid escalating Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruptions, especially involving Iran. Brent crude hovered near $70 per barrel after a sharp jump, and prices are on track for their biggest monthly gains in years. For India, a net oil importer, higher crude means inflation pressure, wider current account deficit, and higher input costs for companies.
Energy-sensitive stocks and broader markets felt the heat.
Global Risk-Off Mood Hits Asian Markets
Global cues also turned cautious. Asian markets were volatile, US futures were lower, and investors across asset classes showed signs of risk aversion.
Uncertainty around US politics, Federal Reserve leadership, and geopolitical tensions added to the nervous mood. Bitcoin and other risk assets slipped, while precious metals remained choppy. When global markets wobble, emerging markets like India usually feel the impact faster.
Technical Indicators Flash Near-Term Caution
Technical analysts also warned that the Nifty’s ability to hold higher levels remains uncertain without fresh triggers. The index had recently recovered from key support levels, but resistance around the 25,390–25,360 zone could limit upside. Failure to stay above these levels could weaken momentum in the short term. Some analysts noted bullish signals like hammer patterns near long-term averages, but overall, the technical picture suggests caution rather than aggressive buying.
What This Means for Investors and Traders
This was not a panic crash. It was a classic pre-Budget de-risking move combined with global and macro concerns. Short-term volatility is likely to stay high until the Budget announcements are digested. Foreign flows, currency movement, crude prices, and policy clarity will be key drivers going forward.
For now, the market is in wait-and-watch mode. And Dalal Street hates uncertainty.
FAQs
Q1: Why did Sensex fall 600 points before the Budget?
A: Investors trimmed positions amid Budget uncertainty, weak rupee, rising crude prices, and cautious global cues.
Q2: Did ₹4 lakh crore in market wealth get erased?
A: Yes, roughly ₹4 lakh crore was lost as Sensex and Nifty slid in Friday’s session.
Q3: Is the rupee weakness affecting Indian stocks?
A: Yes, the rupee hit near-record lows, increasing imported inflation risks and foreign fund outflows.
Q4: Are rising crude oil prices responsible for the market decline?
A: Partially, higher crude costs raise input costs and inflation expectations, pressuring equities.
Q5: Will markets recover after the Budget?
A: Possibly. Short-term volatility may continue until the Budget’s policies and fiscal measures are digested by investors.
Q6: Did global markets influence the Sensex fall?
A: Yes, risk-off sentiment in Asian markets and weak US futures contributed to the decline.
Q7: Is this a market crash?
A: No, it’s a short-term pre-Budget de-risking rather than a structural crash.
