{"id":11752,"date":"2025-07-15T16:28:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T10:58:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/?p=11752"},"modified":"2025-07-15T16:49:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T11:19:27","slug":"fed-inflation-june-cpi-tariffs-rate-cut-odds-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/fed-inflation-june-cpi-tariffs-rate-cut-odds-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s Tariff-Led Inflation Worries in Focus as June CPI, 3% Core Print Awaited"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"91\" data-end=\"226\"><em data-start=\"91\" data-end=\"224\">Traders brace for key U.S. CPI inflation data as tariff pass-through accelerates, clouding prospects of a July rate cut by the Fed.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"228\" data-end=\"284\">Inflation Data Set to Test Powell\u2019s Summer Warning<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"611\">June CPI data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 16, could validate the Federal Reserve&#8217;s concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher. Economists expect core CPI (excluding food and energy) to rise 3% YoY, up from May\u2019s 2.9%, as imported goods and recreational commodities see steeper price increases.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"613\" data-end=\"943\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier flagged this summer as the turning point when tariff-related inflation might become more visible, citing lagged pass-through effects on consumer prices. If CPI confirms the forecast, it may signal the beginning of a sustained uptick and challenge bets on a September rate cut.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"945\" data-end=\"1080\">\n<li data-start=\"945\" data-end=\"991\">\n<p data-start=\"947\" data-end=\"991\">Core CPI forecast: 3.0% YoY vs 2.9% in May<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"992\" data-end=\"1030\">\n<p data-start=\"994\" data-end=\"1030\">Fed\u2019s inflation target (PCE): 2.0%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1031\" data-end=\"1080\">\n<p data-start=\"1033\" data-end=\"1080\">Powell expects tariff effects to emerge by Q3<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Also Read : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/content\/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-on-nvidia-lift-ahead-of-cpi\/\">S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rise on Nvidia Lift Ahead of CPI, Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1082\" data-end=\"1143\">Market Cautious Ahead of Print; Bond Yields Edge Higher<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1145\" data-end=\"1413\">Ahead of the CPI release, U.S. Treasury yields have inched up, reflecting a repricing of rate cut expectations. The 10-year yield rose to 4.31%, while Fed funds futures now imply just a 45% probability of a September cut, down from 58% last week.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1415\" data-end=\"1697\">Traders are eyeing categories like household furnishings, recreational goods, and outdoor tools\u2014items with high exposure to China-import tariffs\u2014for signs of CPI pressure. Economists note a divergence between previously disinflationary items and their recent price spikes.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1699\" data-end=\"1837\">\n<p data-start=\"1701\" data-end=\"1837\">\u201cWe haven\u2019t seen the full impact yet, but June could be the first signal,\u201d said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul data-start=\"1839\" data-end=\"1974\">\n<li data-start=\"1839\" data-end=\"1878\">\n<p data-start=\"1841\" data-end=\"1878\">Bond yields firm ahead of CPI print<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1879\" data-end=\"1916\">\n<p data-start=\"1881\" data-end=\"1916\">Market pricing in fewer rate cuts<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1917\" data-end=\"1974\">\n<p data-start=\"1919\" data-end=\"1974\">High-tariff categories now showing price acceleration<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"1976\" data-end=\"2036\">Policy Outlook in Focus as Tariff Uncertainty Persists<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2038\" data-end=\"2289\">The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 2.7% in May, with projections pointing toward 3.1% by year-end. New tariff threats for August 1, particularly on Mexico, Canada, and EU goods, could further fuel cost pressures.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2291\" data-end=\"2488\">Economists at JP Morgan estimate a 0.2-0.3 percentage point rise in PCE if these tariffs are passed through partially. That backdrop is prompting policymakers to signal caution on easing.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2490\" data-end=\"2630\">\n<li data-start=\"2490\" data-end=\"2529\">\n<p data-start=\"2492\" data-end=\"2529\">New tariffs could push PCE to 3.1%+<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2530\" data-end=\"2583\">\n<p data-start=\"2532\" data-end=\"2583\">Margin compression and pass-through risks growing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2584\" data-end=\"2630\">\n<p data-start=\"2586\" data-end=\"2630\">Fed may pause rate cuts at July 30 meeting<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"2632\" data-end=\"2681\">Trading Setup &amp; Key Macro Triggers to Watch<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2683\" data-end=\"2870\">Markets will be highly sensitive to the CPI release. A hotter print near or above 3% may delay or derail Fed easing, especially if July\u2019s FOMC minutes emphasize inflation vigilance.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2872\" data-end=\"2888\">Watchlist:<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2889\" data-end=\"3073\">\n<li data-start=\"2889\" data-end=\"2951\">\n<p data-start=\"2891\" data-end=\"2951\">Gold ($3,500 zone) \u2013 Inflation hedge on breakout watch<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2952\" data-end=\"3015\">\n<p data-start=\"2954\" data-end=\"3015\">Retail ETFs (XRT) \u2013 Sensitive to consumer price squeeze<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3016\" data-end=\"3073\">\n<p data-start=\"3018\" data-end=\"3073\">U.S. 10Y Yield (4.31%) \u2013 Key to rate expectations<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Check For:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/gold-price-today\">Gold Price Today<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/\">Stock Market Today\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders brace for key U.S. CPI inflation data as tariff pass-through accelerates, clouding prospects of a July rate cut by the Fed. Inflation Data Set to Test Powell\u2019s Summer Warning June CPI data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 16, could validate the Federal Reserve&#8217;s concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher. Economists expect core [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[1383],"class_list":{"0":"post-11752","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stock-market-news"}," _eael_post_view_count":0,"authors":[{"term_id":1383,"user_id":6,"is_guest":0,"slug":"pradeep","display_name":"Pradeep Sangatramani","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11752"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11752\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11768,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11752\/revisions\/11768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11752"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=11752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}