{"id":11773,"date":"2025-07-15T17:16:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T11:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/?p=11773"},"modified":"2025-07-15T17:33:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:03:26","slug":"hindalco-adani-copper-shortage-negative-tcrc-margins-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/hindalco-adani-copper-shortage-negative-tcrc-margins-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Crunch Turns TC\/RC Margins Negative; Hindalco, Adani See EBITDA Pressure Mount"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"118\" data-end=\"261\"><em data-start=\"118\" data-end=\"259\">Global copper concentrate squeeze forces Indian refiners to accept near-zero or negative processing charges, risking profitability in FY26.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"319\" data-end=\"620\">Indian copper refiners, including Hindalco Industries and Adani Group\u2019s Kutch Copper, are staring at a steep erosion in margins as treatment and refining charges (TC\/RCs) turn zero or even negative, amid a global copper concentrate shortage that has intensified through 2025.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"622\" data-end=\"1025\">TC\/RCs, traditionally a key revenue stream for smelters, have flipped direction\u2014with some global suppliers reportedly proposing negative rates, forcing smelters to pay miners for processing copper, rather than being compensated. Chinese refiners have already accepted zero TC\/RC terms, and Indian smelters, heavily dependent on imports, are now under direct threat of operating below cost.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1027\" data-end=\"1168\">\n<p data-start=\"1029\" data-end=\"1168\">\u201cA prolonged period of negative TC\/RCs could materially compress smelter profitability,\u201d said Sumit Jhunjhunwala, VP at ICRA Ltd.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul data-start=\"1170\" data-end=\"1359\">\n<li data-start=\"1170\" data-end=\"1220\">\n<p data-start=\"1172\" data-end=\"1220\">TC\/RC margins at zero or negative globally<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1221\" data-end=\"1290\">\n<p data-start=\"1223\" data-end=\"1290\">Indian smelters dependent on imports from Chile, Peru, Zambia<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1291\" data-end=\"1359\">\n<p data-start=\"1293\" data-end=\"1359\">EBITDA impact on Hindalco\u2019s copper business: 25\u201330% expected<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Also Read : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/content\/hdfc-life-q1-net-profit-rises-14-to-rs-546-cr\/\">HDFC Life Q1 Net Profit Rises 14% to Rs.546 Cr; APE Grows 12%, Margins Improve<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1361\" data-end=\"1415\">Hindalco, Adani Exposed to Spot Price Volatility<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1417\" data-end=\"1839\">With India\u2019s 0.5 million tonne smelting capacity equally split between Hindalco and Adani\u2019s Kutch Copper, both players are exposed to volatile benchmark pricing for 2025, especially as older, higher-margin contracts phase out. Hindalco\u2019s copper EBITDA has so far been supported by stronger realisations on copper rods and robust domestic demand, but that cushion may wear thin over the next 2\u20133 quarters.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1841\" data-end=\"2018\">\n<p data-start=\"1843\" data-end=\"2018\">\u201cThese few quarters will likely see margin pressure, even though management expects medium-term improvement,\u201d noted Tushar Chaudhari, Research Analyst at PL Capital.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul data-start=\"2020\" data-end=\"2223\">\n<li data-start=\"2020\" data-end=\"2077\">\n<p data-start=\"2022\" data-end=\"2077\">Hindalco\u2019s resilience aided by copper rod pricing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2078\" data-end=\"2148\">\n<p data-start=\"2080\" data-end=\"2148\">Kutch Copper\u2019s startup phase adds sensitivity to margin swings<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2149\" data-end=\"2223\">\n<p data-start=\"2151\" data-end=\"2223\">Domestic demand strong: &gt;0.7 MT refined copper consumed in 2023\u201324<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Check This:<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stocks-price\/hindalco\">Hindalco Stock Price<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"2225\" data-end=\"2278\">Structural Risks Mount as Global Supply Falters<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2280\" data-end=\"2538\">India\u2019s refiners are uniquely vulnerable due to their dependence on imported concentrate, primarily from Chile, Peru, Indonesia, and Zambia, where recent supply disruptions and political instability have driven shipment delays and price spikes.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2540\" data-end=\"2845\">With copper prices largely range-bound, smelters are relying more heavily on by-product sales (like sulfuric acid and precious metals) to salvage margin. New benchmark contracts for 2025 are reportedly being signed at significantly lower TC\/RC levels, putting even long-term players at risk.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"2847\" data-end=\"2970\">\n<p data-start=\"2849\" data-end=\"2970\">\u201cWithout a recovery in refining fees, by-product revenue becomes critical,\u201d said Yash Sawant of Choice Broking.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<ul data-start=\"2972\" data-end=\"3159\">\n<li data-start=\"2972\" data-end=\"3031\">\n<p data-start=\"2974\" data-end=\"3031\">New 2025 contracts priced lower than previous years<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3032\" data-end=\"3103\">\n<p data-start=\"3034\" data-end=\"3103\">Supply-side delays and volatility persist in global mining hubs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3104\" data-end=\"3159\">\n<p data-start=\"3106\" data-end=\"3159\">By-product dependence rising to protect margins<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"3161\" data-end=\"3229\">Government Interventions Underway, But Outlook Remains Clouded<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3231\" data-end=\"3655\">In response, the Indian government is rolling out policy tools to insulate the refining industry, including capital incentives, promotion of foreign miner partnerships, and copper-specific trade provisions in international agreements. Still, the impact of these structural fixes will take time, and analysts expect continued EBITDA pressure, working capital strain, and import price risks through FY26.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"3657\" data-end=\"3799\">\n<p data-start=\"3659\" data-end=\"3799\">\u201cUntil supply-side reforms take hold, refiners will remain exposed to global shocks,\u201d added Sanket Singh of Grant Thornton Bharat.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3 data-start=\"3801\" data-end=\"3817\">Watchlist:<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"3818\" data-end=\"4092\">\n<li data-start=\"3818\" data-end=\"3904\">\n<p data-start=\"3820\" data-end=\"3904\">Hindalco (\u20b9660\u2013\u20b9685 range) \u2013 Earnings risk if copper margins remain compressed<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3905\" data-end=\"4018\">\n<p data-start=\"3907\" data-end=\"4018\">Adani Enterprises (via Kutch Copper) \u2013 Monitor updates on operational scale-up amid weak refining spreads<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4019\" data-end=\"4092\">\n<p data-start=\"4021\" data-end=\"4092\">MCX Copper Futures \u2013 Track concentrate price trends and arbitrage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Check This:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stocks-price\/adanient\">Adani Enterprises Stock Price<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stock-futures\/mcx\">MCX Copper Futures<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global copper concentrate squeeze forces Indian refiners to accept near-zero or negative processing charges, risking profitability in FY26. Indian copper refiners, including Hindalco Industries and Adani Group\u2019s Kutch Copper, are staring at a steep erosion in margins as treatment and refining charges (TC\/RCs) turn zero or even negative, amid a global copper concentrate shortage that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[1383],"class_list":{"0":"post-11773","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stock-market-news"}," _eael_post_view_count":0,"authors":[{"term_id":1383,"user_id":6,"is_guest":0,"slug":"pradeep","display_name":"Pradeep Sangatramani","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11773"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11784,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11773\/revisions\/11784"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11773"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=11773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}