{"id":11780,"date":"2025-07-15T17:39:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:09:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/?p=11780"},"modified":"2025-07-15T17:59:51","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:29:51","slug":"idfc-first-bank-falls-6-in-5-days-as-ubs-flags-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/idfc-first-bank-falls-6-in-5-days-as-ubs-flags-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"IDFC First Bank Falls 6% in 5 Days as UBS Flags Growth Headwinds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"95\" data-end=\"235\"><em data-start=\"95\" data-end=\"233\">Stock under pressure ahead of Q1 results; UBS initiates coverage with neutral rating, citing limited upside and profitability headwinds.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"289\" data-end=\"721\">Shares of IDFC First Bank fell over 1% to close at \u20b973 on July 11, extending their losing streak to five straight sessions, with a total decline of 6% over the period. The fall comes amid broader market weakness\u2014Nifty 50 was down 1% in the same timeframe\u2014but also reflects specific concerns raised by global brokerage UBS, which initiated coverage with a &#8216;neutral&#8217; rating on the private lender.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"723\" data-end=\"1013\">Despite the recent dip, IDFC First Bank remains up 14% year-to-date, outperforming the 5% rise in Nifty 50, thanks to improved loan growth visibility and a rising deposit base in H1. However, medium-term profitability challenges flagged by UBS are weighing on near-term sentiment.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1015\" data-end=\"1158\">\n<li data-start=\"1015\" data-end=\"1041\">\n<p data-start=\"1017\" data-end=\"1041\">5-day decline: -6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1042\" data-end=\"1068\">\n<p data-start=\"1044\" data-end=\"1068\">Current price: \u20b973<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1069\" data-end=\"1116\">\n<p data-start=\"1071\" data-end=\"1116\">YTD performance: +14% vs Nifty 50&#8217;s +5%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1117\" data-end=\"1158\">\n<p data-start=\"1119\" data-end=\"1158\">UBS rating: Neutral | Target: \u20b985<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Also Read : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/content\/coffee-day-shares-surge-10-as-dolly-khanna-picks\/\">Coffee Day Shares Surge 10% as Dolly Khanna Picks Up 1.55% Stake<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1160\" data-end=\"1225\">UBS Sees Pressure on ROA, Margins Despite Liquidity Support<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1227\" data-end=\"1562\">In its coverage note, UBS highlighted persistent credit costs, high operating expenses, and a sticky cost-to-income (C\/I) ratio as key hurdles to ROA expansion. UBS projects ROA to remain at 1% through FY27, down from the 1.1% levels seen in FY22\u201324, with return on equity (ROE) also expected to stay range-bound.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1564\" data-end=\"1917\">UBS acknowledged that an easing liquidity environment could support growth, but cost pressures and rate sensitivity in the bank\u2019s loan mix may neutralize those benefits. Net interest margin (NIM) is forecast to hold steady at 6.1% through FY27, even as IDFC First has adjusted lending rates by 25\u2013125 bps to buffer rate volatility.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1919\" data-end=\"2114\">\n<li data-start=\"1919\" data-end=\"1953\">\n<p data-start=\"1921\" data-end=\"1953\">Projected ROA: ~1% by FY27<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1954\" data-end=\"2014\">\n<p data-start=\"1956\" data-end=\"2014\">Credit costs: 2.1% (FY26), easing to ~1.9% (FY27\u201328)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2015\" data-end=\"2050\">\n<p data-start=\"2017\" data-end=\"2050\">NIM outlook: Steady at 6.1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2051\" data-end=\"2114\">\n<p data-start=\"2053\" data-end=\"2114\">Cost-to-income ratio: High, though expected to moderate<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"2116\" data-end=\"2185\">Q1 Preview: Muted Earnings Expected Ahead of July 26 Board Meet<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2187\" data-end=\"2454\">Looking ahead, Q1 FY26 earnings, scheduled for July 26, are expected to reflect higher provisioning and margin pressure, according to UBS. While loan growth has likely remained stable, credit costs and high opex may suppress quarterly profitability.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2456\" data-end=\"2669\">The bank, in its regulatory filing, confirmed that its Board of Directors will meet on July 26 to consider unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2671\" data-end=\"2871\">\n<li data-start=\"2671\" data-end=\"2725\">\n<p data-start=\"2673\" data-end=\"2725\">Next catalyst: Q1 results on July 26, 2025<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2726\" data-end=\"2786\">\n<p data-start=\"2728\" data-end=\"2786\">Earnings risk: High provisions and pressured margins<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2787\" data-end=\"2871\">\n<p data-start=\"2789\" data-end=\"2871\">Investor focus: ROA trajectory, asset quality updates, and margin commentary<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"2873\" data-end=\"2931\">Trading View: Near-Term Weakness; Watch \u20b970\u2013\u20b975 Zone<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2933\" data-end=\"3218\">With a 5-day losing streak and cautious analyst tone, IDFC First Bank may see continued near-term weakness unless Q1 results surprise positively. \u20b970 is a key support, while any rebound will face resistance near \u20b976\u2013\u20b978, where selling has emerged in previous rallies.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3220\" data-end=\"3236\">Watchlist:<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"3237\" data-end=\"3468\">\n<li data-start=\"3237\" data-end=\"3314\">\n<p data-start=\"3239\" data-end=\"3314\">IDFC First Bank (\u20b970\u2013\u20b976) \u2013 Pre-result trade setup with weak momentum<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3315\" data-end=\"3396\">\n<p data-start=\"3317\" data-end=\"3396\">RBL Bank, Federal Bank \u2013 Peers to watch on similar credit cost commentary<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3397\" data-end=\"3468\">\n<p data-start=\"3399\" data-end=\"3468\">Bank Nifty Index \u2013 Reactivity to mid-tier private bank earnings<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Check This:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stocks-price\/idfcfirstb\">IDFC First Bank Stock Price<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stocks-price\/federalbnk\">Federal Bank Stock Price<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/stocks-price\/rblbank\">RBL Bank Stock Price<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock under pressure ahead of Q1 results; UBS initiates coverage with neutral rating, citing limited upside and profitability headwinds. Shares of IDFC First Bank fell over 1% to close at \u20b973 on July 11, extending their losing streak to five straight sessions, with a total decline of 6% over the period. The fall comes amid [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[1383],"class_list":{"0":"post-11780","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stock-market-news"}," _eael_post_view_count":0,"authors":[{"term_id":1383,"user_id":6,"is_guest":0,"slug":"pradeep","display_name":"Pradeep Sangatramani","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Pradeep-Sangatramni.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11780"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11794,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11780\/revisions\/11794"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11780"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=11780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}