{"id":19640,"date":"2026-01-10T13:10:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T07:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/?p=19640"},"modified":"2026-01-10T13:11:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T07:41:45","slug":"trade-deal-uncertainty-grows-but-stocks-stay-calm-what-do-big-investors-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/trade-deal-uncertainty-grows-but-stocks-stay-calm-what-do-big-investors-know\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Deal Uncertainty Grows, But Stocks Stay Calm \u2014 What Do Big Investors Know?"},"content":{"rendered":"

India\u2013US Trade Deal Uncertain, But Markets May Remain Unshaken Despite Tariff Fears<\/p>\n

Uncertainty over the timing of an India\u2013US trade deal is rising, yet fund managers believe Indian equity markets are unlikely to see any meaningful impact, even if negotiations are delayed or tariff rhetoric intensifies.<\/p>\n

From unresolved legal challenges in the US to discussions around extreme tariff proposals, the macro narrative is becoming noisier \u2014 but investors appear to be looking beyond the headlines.<\/p>\n

India\u2013US Trade Deal Timeline Appears Increasingly Fragile<\/h2>\n

Expectations of a near-term trade agreement have weakened notably in recent months. Speaking at the CFA Society India Investment Conference, WhiteOak Capital founder Prashant Khemka admitted that optimism has faded.<\/p>\n

He said he was hopeful \u201ctill a couple of months ago\u201d but now believes the probability of a deal being concluded soon is declining. \u201cAt this point in time, from whatever little I know, I\u2019d be happy if it\u2019s in this calendar year,\u201d he remarked.<\/p>\n

Despite this uncertainty, fund managers suggest that whether the deal happens soon, late, or suddenly, markets may remain largely unaffected.<\/p>\n

US Tariff Uncertainty Deepens After Supreme Court Defers Ruling<\/h2>\n

Adding to the uncertainty, the US Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on the legality of former President Donald Trump\u2019s broad tariff regime, leaving markets without clarity on whether existing tariffs will remain or be overturned.<\/p>\n

At the same time, legislative discussions in the US reportedly include provisions for punitive tariffs of up to 500 percent \u2014 a scenario that could significantly hurt India\u2019s export-oriented sectors if implemented.<\/p>\n

However, legal experts and investors alike believe some of these measures could eventually face strong constitutional challenges.<\/p>\n

Markets Have Largely Ignored Tariff Headlines So Far<\/h2>\n

Despite escalating rhetoric, fund managers noted that Indian markets have shown limited reaction to tariff-related developments.<\/p>\n

Khemka acknowledged that while some sectors such as textiles are under pressure, broader market sentiment has remained resilient. He also cautioned that even if tariffs are rolled back, investors should not expect an automatic rally, given the influence of liquidity conditions, valuations, and macroeconomic factors.<\/p>\n

Also Read : India Trims US Treasury Exposure for First Time in Four Years, Holdings Down 21%<\/a><\/p>\n

Investors Should Focus on Companies, Not Sectors<\/h2>\n

Carenlian Capital\u2019s Vikas Khemani advised investors to avoid broad sectoral assumptions during periods of uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn every sector that we don\u2019t like, there are companies that we like, and vice versa. You have to drill down to a company-specific basis,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He also downplayed the macro impact of trade tensions, noting that US exports account for less than 2 percent of GDP. \u201cIndia grows that much in a quarter,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Global Shift Is Bigger Than Tariffs, Say Fund Managers<\/h2>\n

Beyond tariffs, fund managers pointed to a deeper structural transformation underway in the global economy.<\/p>\n

HDFC AMC\u2019s Chirag Setalvad described the current phase as a move away from globalisation. \u201cThis is not about tariffs. The bigger trend is countries now looking out for themselves. America looks out for itself, Europe looks out for itself,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He warned that even if tariff disputes ease, new global concerns would likely emerge. \u201cIt\u2019s not that if tariffs go, everybody\u2019s going to hug each other again. There will be a brand-new concern that will be obsessing us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sharp Market Corrections Only Come With Systemic Economic Damage<\/h2>\n

Khemka emphasized that severe market crashes typically occur only when there is widespread economic disruption or bankruptcy risk.<\/p>\n

\u201cMarkets generally go down very sharply when there\u2019s a widespread bankruptcy risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Rather than reacting to daily headlines, fund managers advised investors to stay focused on long-term fundamentals and disciplined investing.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou just have to invest systematically and think in a long-term horizon. Every once in a while, when there\u2019s a crisis, take advantage of it,\u201d Khemka added.<\/p>\n