Nifty May Still Deliver 10\u201315% Returns by End-2026 \u2014 Why Divam Sharma Believes Geopolitical Fears Are Overpriced<\/p>\n
As global markets swing sharply on escalating US\u2013Israel\u2013Iran tensions, Divam Sharma, Co-Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio PMS<\/span><\/span>, is urging investors to separate short-term volatility from structural fundamentals.<\/p>\n In an interaction Sharma reiterated that he expects the Nifty 50<\/span><\/span> to end 2026 with 10\u201315% returns, despite geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price fluctuations.<\/p>\n \u201cMarkets have already priced in a fair degree of pessimism,\u201d Sharma said. He argues that India\u2019s macro stability, resilient domestic demand, and improving manufacturing base provide a cushion against external shocks. While volatility may persist in the near term, he does not see structural damage to the earnings cycle. source:Moneycontrol<\/p>\n According to Sharma, crude oil is the most critical monitorable variable in the current environment. India imports a significant portion of its energy requirements, making oil prices central to inflation, currency stability, and corporate margins.<\/p>\n \u201cThe key monitorable remains crude. If oil stabilizes, broader markets should absorb the geopolitical noise relatively quickly,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n A sustained spike in oil prices could:<\/p>\n Expand the current account deficit<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Pressure the rupee<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Raise input costs across industries<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Delay monetary easing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n However, Sharma emphasized that under the present base-case scenario, he does not anticipate a meaningful disruption to Q4 earnings. \u201cWe do not expect material disruption to Q4 earnings under the current base case scenario,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n This implies that while markets may react sharply to headlines, corporate India\u2019s earnings momentum remains intact unless oil sustains significantly higher levels for a prolonged period.<\/p>\n Also Read : LNG Tanker Rates Explode as Iran Conflict Sends Global Energy Shipping Into Turmoil<\/a><\/p>\n Markets reacted swiftly to intensifying Middle East tensions, leading to cross-asset volatility.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s movements were driven by:<\/p>\n Escalation of US\u2013Israel\u2013Iran tensions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Concerns over potential oil supply disruptions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rising crude oil prices triggering inflation fears<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Recalibration of global rate-cut expectations<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Equity markets turned cautious as traders assessed whether energy prices could derail the disinflation trend. Safe-haven flows increased globally, while rate-sensitive sectors saw intraday swings.<\/p>\n Sharma views this reaction as a classic short-term risk repricing event. Geopolitical tensions often trigger sharp but temporary dislocations unless accompanied by sustained economic damage.<\/p>\n One of the biggest investor concerns is whether Brent crude could surge past $100 per barrel if tensions escalate further. Sharma does not see this as the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n \u201cAt this stage, we do not foresee Brent crude sustainably rising above $90 per barrel,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n He pointed to diversified global supply chains and the strong incentive among major oil producers to prevent a price spike that could disrupt global growth. Only a direct and prolonged disruption to key production hubs or shipping lanes would materially change this outlook.<\/p>\n For Indian markets, this assessment is significant. Oil above $100 would complicate inflation management, fiscal planning, and interest rate expectations. However, Sharma currently categorizes that scenario as a tail risk rather than a base case.<\/p>\n Sharma also stressed that the conflict should not be viewed solely through the lens of Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n For Israel, the issue is rooted in national security concerns. For the United States, however, the situation ties into broader geopolitical and economic strategy, particularly amid rising global competition.<\/p>\n As the world transitions toward an AI-driven economic model, energy security is becoming increasingly strategic. Control over oil supply chains enhances geopolitical leverage. In this broader framework, Sharma sees the tensions as part of a larger realignment rather than a standalone event.<\/p>\n If crude oil were to rise sharply and remain elevated, central banks could face a renewed growth-versus-inflation dilemma.<\/p>\n Higher energy prices may:<\/p>\n Rekindle inflation pressures<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Delay rate cuts<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Tighten financial conditions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n At the same time, geopolitical stress can dampen business confidence and investment. In such circumstances, policymakers typically adopt a gradual, data-dependent approach.<\/p>\n For Indian markets, this means interest rate expectations could remain fluid, particularly for banking and rate-sensitive sectors.<\/p>\n Despite volatility, Sharma believes selective opportunities are emerging.<\/p>\n He identifies:<\/p>\n Manufacturing, supported by supply-chain diversification and policy momentum<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Defence, amid heightened geopolitical focus and increased spending<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Selective IT companies pivoting toward AI-driven services<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n However, he cautioned against broad-based buying. \u201cThis is not a blanket-buy environment,\u201d Sharma said. Investors must focus on balance-sheet strength, earnings visibility, and sustainable competitive advantages.<\/p>\n Stock selection, rather than thematic exposure, will likely determine portfolio performance over the next 12\u201318 months.<\/p>\n For investors, the key takeaway is to avoid reactionary decisions driven by geopolitical headlines. Portfolios concentrated in oil-sensitive sectors should monitor crude trends carefully. At the same time, corrections may offer disciplined entry opportunities in high-quality businesses.<\/p>\n For traders, volatility is likely to persist in:<\/p>\n Energy-linked stocks<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Defence counters<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Export-oriented IT companies<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Rate-sensitive sectors<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Long-term investors, however, may benefit from India\u2019s resilient domestic consumption, structural reforms, and improving manufacturing ecosystem.<\/p>\n Divam Sharma\u2019s outlook underscores a broader theme \u2014 volatility does not necessarily equate to structural weakness.<\/p>\n If crude oil stabilizes and geopolitical tensions do not escalate into prolonged supply disruptions, Indian corporates are unlikely to see material earnings damage. In that scenario, the Nifty 50 could still generate 10\u201315% returns by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n For investors navigating uncertain markets, the message is clear: monitor crude, stay selective, and remain anchored to fundamentals rather than fear.<\/p>\n Nifty May Still Deliver 10\u201315% Returns by End-2026 \u2014 Why Divam Sharma Believes Geopolitical Fears Are Overpriced As global markets swing sharply on escalating US\u2013Israel\u2013Iran tensions, Divam Sharma, Co-Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio PMS, is urging investors to separate short-term volatility from structural fundamentals. In an interaction Sharma reiterated that he expects the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[1331],"class_list":{"0":"post-22302","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stock-market-news"}," _eael_post_view_count":0,"authors":[{"term_id":1331,"user_id":4,"is_guest":0,"slug":"sourabh","display_name":"Sourabh Sharma","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Sourabh-Sharma.png","url2x":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Sourabh-Sharma.png"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22302"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22308,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22302\/revisions\/22308"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22302"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=22302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Crude Oil Is the Swing Factor \u2014 But Q4 Earnings Remain Largely Protected<\/h2>\n
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Here\u2019s What Happened Today and Why Traders Reacted<\/h2>\n
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Brent Crude Above $100? Sharma Calls It a Low-Probability Scenario<\/h2>\n
The Conflict Reflects Broader Strategic Positioning, Not Just Nuclear Tensions<\/h2>\n
Central Banks May Face a Delicate Growth\u2013Inflation Balance<\/h2>\n
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Where Sharma Sees Opportunity During the Correction<\/h2>\n
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What Impact on Investors and Trader Portfolios?<\/h2>\n
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The Bottom Line: Volatility Is Temporary, Fundamentals Remain Intact<\/h2>\n
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