Nouriel Roubini, the economist dubbed \u201cDr. Doom\u201d for his historically bearish market views, now foresees a shallow U.S. recession by the end of 2025, largely driven by inflationary effects of tariffs. According to Roubini, the aggressive tariff policies proposed by President Donald Trump\u2014a 10-15% universal import duty and a 60% levy on Chinese goods\u2014could erode disposable income and weaken consumer and business sentiment, thus triggering a downturn.<\/p>\n
Despite these headwinds, Roubini suggested the Federal Reserve would respond with rate cuts, preventing a deep recession. He projects that the core PCE inflation rate could rise to 4% by year-end, up from 2.6% in March, further tightening household budgets.<\/p>\n
Highlights:<\/p>\n
Predicted recession by Q4 2025, driven by tariff-induced inflation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Core PCE seen rising to 4%, affecting consumption<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Recession expected to be short and shallow, followed by Fed rate cuts<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
While acknowledging the risks from trade policy, Roubini believes technology will be the overriding economic driver, stating that \u201ctech trumps tariffs\u201d. He forecasts a U.S. investment boom driven by leadership in AI, robotics, and quantum computing, which he argues will significantly lift national productivity.<\/p>\n
The economist estimates that even if Trump\u2019s tariffs are implemented, they would trim GDP growth by only 0.5%, whereas tech advancements could boost long-term U.S. growth from 2% to 4% by 2030. In this view, America’s innovative edge will shield it from long-term trade-related drag.<\/p>\n
Highlights:<\/p>\n
Forecasted annual growth of 4% by 2030, driven by tech<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
AI, robotics, quantum computing cited as growth engines<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Tariffs seen as a minor drag, outweighed by tech-led productivity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u201cTech trumps tariffs\u2026 tech trumps Trump too,\u201d Roubini said<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Roubini warned that bond market dynamics could check Trump\u2019s trade ambitions. He pointed to the influence of \u201cbond vigilantes\u201d\u2014investors who sell off Treasurys to signal disapproval of inflationary or fiscally irresponsible policies\u2014as a potential constraint on tariff escalation.<\/p>\n
Trump, focused on lowering borrowing costs, is watching 10-year Treasury yields, especially after markets reacted to his initial tariff plans with a sell-off in bonds. This market pressure, Roubini argued, was likely a factor in Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days in April.<\/p>\n
Highlights:<\/p>\n
Bond vigilantes seen as a key force pushing tariff de-escalation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Trump aiming to keep yields low to support borrowing and growth<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Treasury sell-offs may serve as market guardrails on policy overreach<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s boxed in\u2026 there\u2019ll be de-escalation,\u201d Roubini asserted<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Roubini expects gold to remain a favored asset, as tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. Investors, wary of holding U.S. reserves after the 2022 seizure of Russian assets, may opt for gold as a non-confiscatable, neutral store of value.<\/p>\n
He argued that currency realignments would be politically sensitive and limited, making gold a more viable alternative. With both Treasurys and the dollar under pressure, gold could be the \u201cbiggest winner\u201d in the evolving macroeconomic landscape.<\/p>\n
Highlights:<\/p>\n
Gold favored over Treasurys and foreign currencies amid reserve uncertainty<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
USD weakness and tariff fears to increase demand for safe havens<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Gold seen as non-seizable and politically neutral<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Roubini: \u201cThe best thing you can do is sell Treasurys and buy gold\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Mild U.S. Recession Likely by Late 2025 Amid Tariff Pressures Nouriel Roubini, the economist dubbed \u201cDr. Doom\u201d for his historically bearish market views, now foresees a shallow U.S. recession by the end of 2025, largely driven by inflationary effects of tariffs. According to Roubini, the aggressive tariff policies proposed by President Donald Trump\u2014a 10-15% universal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[615],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[1331],"class_list":{"0":"post-8415","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stock-market-news"}," _eael_post_view_count":0,"authors":[{"term_id":1331,"user_id":4,"is_guest":0,"slug":"sourabh","display_name":"Sourabh Sharma","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Sourabh-Sharma.png","url2x":"https:\/\/trending.niftytrader.in\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Sourabh-Sharma.png"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8415"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8418,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8415\/revisions\/8418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8415"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.niftytrader.in\/markets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}