India’s merchandise trade data for October 2025 has revealed a sharp jump in the trade deficit, driven mainly by a significant spike in gold imports. According to the commerce ministry’s figures released on November 17, India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to $41.68 billion in October, up from $32.15 billion in September.

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Gold Imports Jump Nearly 200%Services Sector Shows Steady Growth First Fall in Goods Exports This Fiscal Export Performance for Seven Months Still Positive Import Pressure Persists A Worrying Signal Amid Global Uncertainty

The latest data highlights growing pressure on the country’s trade balance, as imports continued to rise faster than exports. Merchandise exports for October 2025 came in at $34.38 billion, while imports surged to $76.06 billion during the same period.

Gold Imports Jump Nearly 200%

One of the biggest contributors to the widening deficit was gold.
Gold imports grew 199.2% in October, reaching $14.7 billion, compared to $4.9 billion in the same month last year.

This sharp rise significantly pushed up overall import figures, widening the gap between exports and imports. The surge in gold imports alone played a major role in driving India’s trade deficit to one of its highest levels this fiscal year.

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Services Sector Shows Steady Growth

While the merchandise segment faced pressure, India’s services trade showed a positive trend in October 2025.

Services exports increased from $34.41 billion in October 2024 to $38.52 billion in October 2025.
Services imports also rose to $18.64 billion, compared to $17.23 billion in the same period last year.

The growth in services helped cushion the overall impact of the merchandise shortfall, although it was not enough to offset the widening goods trade deficit.

First Fall in Goods Exports This Fiscal

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal provided further insights during a press briefing. He confirmed that India’s goods exports fell for the first time this fiscal in October, declining by nearly $4 billion.

Agarwal highlighted that the drop was influenced by weaker demand from major trading partners. “One reason for the fall in goods exports in October is due to a drop in exports to the US,” he said.

This decline marks an important shift in India’s export performance, especially considering global uncertainty and volatility in international trade.

Export Performance for Seven Months Still Positive

Despite the October setback, India’s overall export performance for the fiscal year remains in positive territory.

According to the Commerce Secretary:

Overall exports for the first seven months of the fiscal year have grown by 4.84%.
However, merchandise exports have shown limited growth of just 0.63% during the same period.

Agarwal noted that India has maintained export growth “despite global turmoil in the trade space,” pointing to the resilience of certain sectors even as others faced pressure.

Import Pressure Persists

India’s import bill continued to remain elevated in October, driven not only by gold but also by other categories that have kept overall import levels significantly higher than exports. With imports at $76.06 billion and exports at $34.38 billion, the gap has widened to levels that may require close monitoring in the months ahead.

The combination of rising imports and weakening goods exports could pose challenges for policymakers, especially if similar trends continue across the next few trade cycles.

A Worrying Signal Amid Global Uncertainty

The sharp expansion in the trade deficit signals a period of heightened stress for India’s external sector.
The near-200% surge in gold imports is one of the most striking figures in the October data, raising questions about demand patterns and domestic drivers influencing the spike.

With global demand slowing and key export markets facing their own economic challenges, India’s trade performance may require stronger support measures and continued monitoring.