Russian crude oil shipments to India have seen a sharp decline in November as upcoming US sanctions on major Russian energy companies disrupt trade flows. The drop reflects a significant shift in sourcing patterns, even as India continues prioritising affordability and supply security.
Imports Drop to 948,000 bpd in November
According to data from Kpler, India’s Russian oil imports fell to around 948,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November so far, 50% lower than 1.89 million bpd in October.
Experts attribute the decline to fresh US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, two companies that together accounted for about 60% of Russia’s FY25 oil exports to India.
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Sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil Take Effect on November 21
In October, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies to pressure its energy sector. These sanctions take effect from November 21, triggering global buyers to reduce purchases.
OFAC also warned that secondary sanctions could be imposed on buyers continuing to purchase crude from the sanctioned entities. This has prompted countries including India, China, and Turkey to scale back Russian purchases.
Sharp Declines Also Seen in China and Turkey
Kpler data shows similar declines in other major Russian crude importers:
China: 706,000 bpd between Nov 1–19, down 39% month-on-month
Turkey: 136,000 bpd in the same period, down 59%
Chinese state-owned refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina have suspended certain purchases to avoid sanctions.
Turkey’s largest refineries have shifted to alternative suppliers, with SOCAR Turkey Refinery buying batches from Iraq, Kazakhstan and others.
Impact on India’s Near-Term Import Strategy
India imported 88 million tonnes of Russian crude in FY25, with Rosneft and Lukoil contributing around 60%.
Industry experts note that India plans to remain compliant with US sanctions.
According to Prashant Vasisht of Icra, India will continue buying Russian crude but only from non-sanctioned entities.
He added that the sanctioned volumes may now shift toward Middle Eastern and US supplies.
India’s US Oil Imports Rise Sharply
India has increased its crude intake from the US:
566,000 bpd in November so far
568,000 bpd in October
Below 400,000 bpd before October
230,000 bpd in August and 207,000 bpd in September
One industry executive said India is buying more US crude in hopes of seeing 25% tariffs on Russian oil being reduced.
Outlook: Russian Flows Likely to Decline Through December–January
Kpler’s Sumit Ritolia expects Russian shipments to India to drop further in the near term. He noted that loadings slowed after October 21, though Russia is known for using intermediaries, shadow fleets and workaround financing.
Despite the decline, experts believe a complete halt to Russian imports is unlikely. Discounted Russian barrels remain profitable, and India continues to prioritise affordability and energy security.
As of today:
Brent crude: $64.2 per barrel
Russian discount: $1.5–4 per barrel
Recent discount widened to about $6 per barrel, according to industry executives.
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