Japan’s benchmark index breached an all-time high of 60,013.98 on April 23, but only 17% of Tokyo’s Prime Market stocks rose on the day, exposing a rally built almost entirely on semiconductor and AI names
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index crossed 60,000 for the first time in its history on Thursday, April 23, 2026, touching an intraday record of 60,013.98 at 9:06 a.m. Tokyo time before retreating below the threshold. The advance was driven by AI-linked technology stocks and an improvement in risk sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, following a request by Pakistani mediators.
The Numbers Behind the Breakthrough
SoftBank Group posted the session’s largest single-stock gain at 6.4%, while chip equipment maker Advantest rose 2.65% and Tokyo Electron climbed 1.76%. Fibre optic cable manufacturer Fujikura added 0.65%. SoftBank’s surge was not without scrutiny: Takehiko Masuzawa, head of trading at Phillip Securities’ equity department, noted that the trigger expectations for a rise in UK-based chip subsidiary Arm on hopes for in-house AI semiconductors were actually news from late March and that it was “used as a pretext to buy,” reflecting the market’s strong underlying appetite rather than a fresh fundamental catalyst.
The index is now up 16% over the past month and 72% over the past year. It had previously closed at an all-time high of 58,850 on February 27, one day before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities triggered a sharp sell-off that dragged the Nikkei down roughly 13% to around 51,100 by the end of March. The 60,000 prints, therefore, represent not just a record but a full reversal of those war-driven losses in under four weeks.
A Rally That 83% of the Market Missed
The breadth data tells a different story from the headline. Of the 1,600 shares listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market, only 17% rose on the day while 78% fell. The NT ratio, the Nikkei 225 divided by the broader Topix index, hit a record high of 15.74, underscoring how sharply the tech-heavy index has outpaced the wider Japanese equity market. The TOPIX, which tracks all Prime Market stocks on an equal-weight basis, ended essentially flat at 3,744.93. Fashion retailer Fast Retailing, owner of the Uniqlo brand, fell 1.8%, acting as the single biggest drag on the index.
Analysts point to FOMO, fear of missing out, as a driver of semiconductor stock purchases, while simultaneously warning of risks from a prolonged Middle East crisis and a potential correction after the sharp rally. The global semiconductor rally has its own fundamental anchor: Dutch chip equipment giant ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast, citing continued strong demand for AI chip manufacturing equipment, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company revised its full-year sales forecast upward.
Geopolitical Risk Has Not Disappeared
Despite the ceasefire extension, the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect, and Iran seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on the same day the Nikkei set its record. Hiroyuki Ueno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, was direct: “There are still uncertainties surrounding the Middle East war. The Strait of Hormuz is not completely open, and oil prices remain high.” Japan imports nearly all of its energy, making oil price levels a direct threat to corporate margins and inflation, a factor the Bank of Japan must weigh at its April 27–28 policy meeting.
What J.P. Morgan and the Yen Tell You
J.P. Morgan has raised its Nikkei 225 year-end target to 70,000, a level that would represent a further 17% gain from Thursday’s record. A weaker yen is part of that thesis: J.P. Morgan projects USD/JPY at 164 by end-2026, the most bearish yen forecast on Wall Street, driven by still-wide U.S.-Japan yield gaps and persistent capital outflows. A weaker yen directly boosts the reported yen-denominated earnings of Japan’s export-heavy technology firms, amplifying the index’s upside even without underlying stock price gains in dollar terms, a dynamic investors should factor into any return comparison.
36 Years From Bubble Peak to This Moment
To appreciate the scale of Thursday’s milestone, context is essential. The Nikkei 225 last set a bubble-era record of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. It subsequently lost nearly all those gains, reaching a post-bubble intraday low of 6,994.90 on October 28, 2008, 82% below its peak. That 1989 record held for 34 years. The index only reclaimed it in February 2024, crossed 40,000 in March 2024, and has now more than doubled from that 1989 peak in just over two years.
Critically, today’s valuations are structurally different from the bubble era: in 1989 the price-to-earnings ratio for Japanese stocks stood at approximately 70, compared with a current ratio of around 16 well within the historical range. This is not a repeat of 1989.
The Answer to the Breadth Question
The article’s subheadline raises the question directly: does a 17% breadth rate mean the rally will stall? Historically, narrow leadership in index-level rallies has been a yellow flag rather than a red one. For example: In 2023, the top seven Nasdaq constituents accounted for over 60% of the index’s annual gain while the median stock was flat. For Japan, the test is whether corporate governance reforms, which have pushed companies to improve return on equity and reduce cross-shareholdings, generate a second wave of buying beyond AI names. Shareholder activism is increasingly influencing Japanese blue-chip behaviour, with Elliott Investment Management recently pressuring Daikin Industries to narrow its valuation gap with global peers, exactly the kind of catalyst that could extend gains beyond the semiconductor cohort. Until that broadening occurs, the 60,000 level is a headline achievement sitting on a narrow foundation.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Nikkei cross 60,000 today?
Two catalysts converged on April 23: a surge in AI-linked technology stocks led by SoftBank Group (+6.4%), Advantest (+2.65%), and Tokyo Electron (+1.76%); combined with improved risk sentiment after U.S. President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely. The index touched an intraday record of 60,013.98.
What is the NT ratio, and why does it matter?
The NT ratio divides the Nikkei 225 by the broader Topix index. A record high of 15.74 means the tech-heavy Nikkei is outperforming the wider market at an unprecedented rate; only 17% of Tokyo Prime Market stocks rose on the day, confirming the rally is concentrated in a small number of large-cap AI and chip names.
Is today’s Nikkei rally comparable to the 1989 bubble?
No. In 1989, Japanese stocks traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 70. The current P/E ratio is around 16, within the normal historical range, and corporate governance standards have been substantially reformed since that era.
What are the biggest risks to the Nikkei rally continuing?
Three key risks: a breakdown in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks that spikes oil prices; a Bank of Japan rate decision at its April 27–28 meeting that triggers yen strengthening and compresses export earnings; and a failure of market breadth to improve beyond the narrow semiconductor cohort currently carrying the index.
