Mumbai, May 2, 2026 — NMDC Limited produced 4.64 million tonnes of iron ore in April 2026, up 16% from 4.00 MT in April 2025, according to provisional data filed with exchanges under SEBI listing norms Friday. Sales rose just 1.4% to 3.68 MT from 3.63 MT, a gap of roughly 960,000 tonnes between what NMDC mined and what it actually dispatched, pointing directly at inventory accumulation heading into Q1 FY27.
Chhattisgarh: Doing the Heavy Lifting
The production number is almost entirely a Chhattisgarh story. Output there jumped to 3.66 MT from 2.85 MT a year ago, a 28% rise that single-handedly drove the consolidated growth figure. Sales from the state kept a reasonable pace, climbing to 3.16 MT from 2.82 MT. The volumes are moving, just not fast enough to match what’s coming out of the ground.
Karnataka is the other side. Production fell to 0.98 MT from 1.15 MT, and sales dropped harder, down to 0.52 MT from 0.81 MT in April 2025, a 36% year-on-year sales decline in a single month. NMDC’s provisional SEBI filing does not disclose an operational explanation. The company did not respond to requests for comment by publication time.
The Inventory Gap: 960,000 Tonnes and Counting
NMDC grew production by roughly 640,000 tonnes year-on-year in April. Sales grew by roughly 50,000 tonnes. The resulting single-month production-to-sales gap of approximately 960,000 tonnes either sits in inventory or reflects dispatch timing lags that will flush through in May data.
In April 2025, NMDC’s production stood at 4.00 MT against sales of 3.63 MT, a gap of 370,000 tonnes. This April’s gap of roughly 960,000 tonnes is more than double that. The widening is not a seasonal constant; it reflects the Chhattisgarh output ramp running ahead of offtake absorption, per the provisional filing data.
Carrying that inventory is not costless. Spot 62% Fe iron ore fines were trading at $97–99 per tonne on the Singapore Exchange through late April, per SGX data. At current realisation levels, 960,000 tonnes of unsold ore represents approximately $93–95 million in capital tied up in stockpiles, a figure that directly pressures working capital if the gap persists into May.
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Stock and What the Market Is Pricing
NMDC shares closed at ₹63.40 on BSE Friday, down 1.2% on the day, underperforming the Nifty Metal index, which ended marginally flat. The stock has declined roughly 18% over the past three months as domestic steel demand signals have softened and iron ore realisation pressure has mounted.
Analysts at Systematix Institutional Equities, in a sector note published April 29, cut their FY27 NMDC EBITDA estimate by 6% to ₹8,200 crore, citing weaker-than-expected iron ore price realisation and subdued domestic steel mill offtake as the primary drivers. The April sales number, 3.68 MT against a production run of 4.64 MT, does not shift that picture. A sustained narrowing of the production-sales gap in May and June is the variable analysts are watching to revise estimates upward.
Karnataka: The Longer-Term Signal
The 36% sales drop in Karnataka in a single month warrants more attention than the headline figure suggests. In its Q3 FY26 earnings call on February 7, 2026, NMDC management flagged that Karnataka mine operations were subject to ongoing forest clearance renewal proceedings affecting two of its three active pits in the region, per the earnings call transcript published to BSE. That process was expected to be resolved in Q4 FY26. The April data suggests it has not been fully resolved.
If Karnataka output remains suppressed, rather than recovering to its prior run rate of 1.15 MT per month or above, NMDC’s consolidated production upside is capped even if Chhattisgarh continues to perform. Karnataka contributed approximately 13.5 MT to NMDC’s total FY26 output of roughly 46 MT, per company annual disclosures. Losing even 20% of that on a sustained basis is a material drag on the FY27 production target.
Q1 FY27 Run-Rate: What the Numbers Actually Say
April is the first month of Q1 FY27. At 4.64 MT production and 3.68 MT sales, NMDC’s opening monthly numbers put it on an annualised production run rate of approximately 55–56 MT, ahead of its FY26 full-year output of roughly 46 MT in sales terms, per NMDC annual disclosures. Closing that gap requires domestic steel capacity additions, particularly from JSW Steel’s 5 MT Vijayanagar expansion and Tata Steel’s Kalinganagar Phase 2, both expected to reach full operational capacity in FY27, to translate into firm and sustained offtake from NMDC.
The May provisional data, expected in early June, will be the first real read on whether April’s inventory build was a one-month timing issue or the start of a trend.
NMDC’s Q4 FY26 earnings are expected in the coming weeks. The May provisional production and sales filing, the next hard data point on whether the inventory gap narrows, is due in early June.
FAQs
Q: Why did NMDC sales grow so much less than production in April 2026?
Production rose 16% to 4.64 MT while sales grew just 1.4% to 3.68 MT, per NMDC’s provisional SEBI filing dated May 2, 2026. The resulting gap of roughly 960,000 tonnes between production and dispatches indicates inventory accumulation. The company has not provided a specific explanation in its regulatory filing.
Q: What is NMDC’s iron ore price realisation and how does the inventory buildup affect working capital?
Spot 62% Fe iron ore fines were trading at $97–99 per tonne on the Singapore Exchange through late April, per SGX data. At those levels, 960,000 tonnes of unsold inventory represents approximately $93–95 million in tied-up working capital. If the production-sales gap persists into May, realisation pressure compounds, NMDC’s ability to clear inventory without cutting prices depends on steel mill offtake picking up in the near term.
Q: What is causing Karnataka’s 36% sales decline, and when does it resolve?
Karnataka sales fell to 0.52 MT from 0.81 MT in April 2025, per NMDC’s provisional filing. On NMDC’s Q3 FY26 earnings call on February 7, 2026, management disclosed that forest clearance renewal proceedings were affecting two of its three active Karnataka pits, with resolution expected in Q4 FY26, per the BSE earnings call transcript. The April data suggests those proceedings have not fully concluded. NMDC has not updated its public guidance on the Karnataka timeline since the February call.
