Sensex and Nifty Climb on India–US Trade Deal Optimism —but can this market momentum sustain in the coming sessions?

Sensex jumps 485 pts, Nifty above 25,850 as India–US trade deal and SBI earnings lift sentiment

Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	25,867.30	173.60	+0.68%
Nifty Bank	60,669.35	548.80	+0.91%
Nifty Financial	28,154.05	346.95	+1.25%
BSE SENSEX	84,065.75	485.35	+0.58%

What happened in today’s session as benchmarks extended gains

Indian equities ended higher in the latest session, with benchmark indices extending gains from the previous day as investors reacted to the India-US interim trade framework, stronger global cues and stock-specific earnings triggers.

The BSE Sensex rose 485.35 points, or 0.58%, to close at 84,065.75, while the Nifty 50 gained 173.60 points, or 0.68%, to settle at 25,867.30, according to exchange data. The Nifty opened near 25,900 and climbed to an intraday high of 25,922.25 before paring some gains, though it held comfortably above the 25,850 mark at the close.

Market breadth was positive. Broader markets outperformed large caps, with the Nifty Midcap index rising 1.6% and the Smallcap index jumping 2.6%, indicating risk appetite beyond index heavyweights. All major sectoral indices ended in the green, suggesting a relatively broad-based rally rather than a narrow, defensives-led move.

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Why the India-US trade framework mattered for markets

A key trigger was the recently announced India-US interim trade framework, which includes a reduction in reciprocal tariffs to 18% on several Indian goods, according to official statements. The framework is also aimed at strengthening energy ties and deepening economic cooperation.

Market participants viewed the development as a sign of easing trade friction between the two countries after a period of tariff disputes. Export-oriented sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and select manufacturing names saw buying interest on expectations that lower tariffs could improve competitiveness and order flows.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, said India and the US had reached an interim understanding that ends a ten-month tariff dispute, with Washington reducing tariffs on Indian goods. He added that India had protected sensitive agricultural sectors while committing to purchase certain US goods over the next five years, focusing on energy, aircraft and defence technology.

For markets, the trade framework provided a macro-level confidence boost at a time when global investors are closely tracking geopolitical and trade risks.

Which stocks and sectors led the charge

Among Nifty gainers were:

• SBI (+7.6%)

• Shriram Finance (+6%)

• Grasim Industries (+3%+)

• Titan Company (+3%+)

• Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (+2–3%)

Laggards included Max Healthcare, NTPC, ITC and ONGC.

Sectorally, media, consumer durables, realty, PSU banks, pharma and metals rose 1–3 percent. More than 140 stocks touched 52-week highs, including SBI, Bharat Forge, Tata Steel and Adani Ports, highlighting the breadth of the rally.

Stock-specific action also stood out:

• BEML rose about 9% after approving a Rs 1,500 crore rail facility investment

• AXISCADES Technologies gained on an order win from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited

• Force Motors climbed on an acquisition announcement

Top Sectoral Gainers Today

What we know so far about the drivers behind the rally

Several factors combined to support today’s move higher.

Key drivers included:

• The India-US interim trade framework and tariff reduction signals
  The interim trade framework between India and the US, including tariff reductions to 18% on several goods, improved sentiment toward export-linked sectors. While full implementation details are awaited, investors saw the move as a sign of easing trade tensions and lower policy uncertainty for exporters.

• Strong quarterly results from State Bank of India
  SBI’s better-than-expected earnings offered a clear fundamentals trigger. Record profit and steady NII growth supported confidence in the banking sector. Given SBI’s index weight, its gains also lifted broader benchmarks.

• Recent foreign institutional investor (FII) buying
  Provisional data showed FIIs turning net buyers in recent sessions. Even moderate foreign inflows can support large-cap stocks and overall sentiment. Strategists said investors are watching if this trend sustains.

• Positive global market cues
  Gains in US and Asian markets supported risk appetite. Stable global cues often help emerging markets like India attract incremental flows when domestic news is constructive.

• Softer crude oil prices
  Brent crude near the high-$60s per barrel offered a macro tailwind. Lower oil prices can ease inflation and support India’s external balance, which is generally positive for equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was quoted around $67.41 per barrel, down about 0.94% in the latest session. Lower crude prices are typically supportive for India, a major oil importer, as they can ease inflationary pressures and reduce the import bill.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities worth ₹1,950.77 crore on Friday, according to provisional data cited in the market update. Flow data for the latest session was not immediately available, but strategists said the shift in FII stance in February has improved sentiment.

Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said there had been a change in foreign fund flows in February, with FIIs turning net buyers. Currency movement, he said, has also played a role in improving sentiment and could support further inflows.

How market breadth reflected strong bullish participation today

Market internals showed a clear bullish tilt, reinforcing the positive close in benchmark indices.

Daily Market Action:

• Advancers: 2,485

• Decliners: 728

• 52-Week Highs: 69 stocks

• 52-Week Lows: 61 stocks

• High Band Hitters (Upper Circuit): 110

• Low Band Hitters (Lower Circuit): 51

The strong advance-decline ratio indicates broad-based buying across sectors rather than a narrow rally led by a few heavyweights. A high number of upper-circuit stocks also points to aggressive risk-on sentiment, especially in midcaps and smallcaps.

How SBI’s earnings reshaped banking sentiment

A significant portion of the day’s gains was linked to banking stocks, particularly after strong results from SBI, India’s largest lender by assets.

SBI shares rose about 7% to a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,143.70. The rally followed its October-December quarter results, which exceeded market expectations. Several brokerages raised target prices after the earnings release.

SBI reported a 24.49% year-on-year rise in net profit after minority interest to ₹21,028.15 crore for the quarter, marking its highest-ever quarterly profit. Net interest income grew 9% year-on-year to ₹45,190 crore, reflecting steady core lending growth.

The stock’s move also lifted the Nifty PSU Bank index, which was up more than 3%. Other lenders such as IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank and Union Bank of India traded higher, though gains were more moderate. Some private banks including HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were marginally in the red, showing a mixed trend within the sector.

How Bank Nifty levels are shaping trader positioning

The Nifty Bank index rose about 0.9% to close at 60,669.35, after gaining more than 750 points intraday at one stage. The index has now sustained above the psychological 60,000 level for consecutive sessions.

Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the index’s ability to hold above 60,000 indicates improving confidence and potential support formation. However, he cautioned that a failure to hold above 59,800 could trigger a corrective move toward the 59,600–59,400 zone.

On the upside, he placed immediate resistance at 60,500, followed by 61,000 and 61,400. He noted that Bank Nifty remains below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting that the broader trend has not yet turned decisively bullish.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, identified the 50- and 20-day simple moving averages near 59,500 as key support. Above these levels, he said, the index could retest 60,500 and 61,000–61,300, while a break below could alter sentiment.

Which stocks and sectors led the moves

Among Nifty gainers were SBI, Shriram Finance, Grasim Industries, Titan Company and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories. On the losing side were Max Healthcare, NTPC, ITC and ONGC.

Sectorally, media, consumer durables, realty, metals and pharma indices rose between roughly 1% and 4%, indicating cyclical and domestic-demand themes were in favour.

More than 140 stocks touched 52-week highs, including names such as Tata Steel, Adani Ports and Bharat Forge, suggesting pockets of strong momentum across sectors.

In stock-specific action, shares of BEML rose about 9% after its board approved a ₹1,500-crore investment for a greenfield rail manufacturing facility. AXISCADES Technologies gained on an order win from HAL. Some food and agri-linked exporters such as Apex Frozen Foods and Avanti Feeds rose on trade-deal optimism.

Meanwhile, HBL Engineering slipped despite a sharp rise in quarterly profit, illustrating that earnings beats do not always translate into gains if expectations are already priced in.

NSE F&O Ban List – Quick Snapshot

Stock in Ban

• SAMMAANCAP (MWPL above limit)

High MWPL – Likely Ban Candidates

KAYNES, RVNL, BDL, IEX, RBL Bank, HUDCO, IRCTC, SAIL, Manappuram, LICHSGFIN, IRFC, IREDA, MCX, Bandhan Bank, NMDC, Dixon, HAL, Mazdock.

Possible Exits

• None today

Why it matters

• No fresh F&O positions allowed in ban stocks

• Signals speculative buildup

• Can lead to sharp price volatility

• Watched closely by short-term traders

What remains unclear for markets

Despite the positive tone, some uncertainties remain.

Details of the India-US interim framework’s implementation timeline and exact product coverage are still evolving. Market participants are also watching whether tariff reductions translate into measurable export growth.

Flow data for the latest session from FIIs and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) was not immediately available, and sustained foreign buying will be closely tracked. In addition, global factors such as US rate expectations and commodity price swings remain potential sources of volatility.

How derivatives positioning is evolving

In the derivatives segment, several stocks were near or above market-wide position limit (MWPL) thresholds. Sammaan Capital remained in the ban list. A number of stocks including RVNL, Bharat Dynamics and IEX were among possible entrants based on high MWPL utilisation.

High MWPL levels can indicate crowded positioning and may lead to sharper moves if traders unwind positions, though direction depends on broader sentiment.

What it means for investors

For institutional and informed investors, the session underscored how macro and micro triggers can align. A supportive trade narrative, strong bank earnings and improving foreign flows created a favourable backdrop.

However, valuations in parts of the market are not cheap by historical standards, and rallies driven by sentiment can be sensitive to news flow. Investors are likely to differentiate between stocks with earnings support and those moving mainly on momentum.

What to watch next in the coming sessions

Market participants will watch:

• Follow-through on FII flows

• Further clarity on India-US trade terms

• Additional corporate earnings

• Global market direction and oil prices

• Whether Nifty sustains above 25,800–25,850 zone

Analysts said the market’s ability to hold above key support levels will be crucial. As one strategist noted, sustained buying interest could support a rebound, but signs of fading momentum would warrant caution.

• Nifty 50
• Bank Nifty
• Sensex

FAQs Sensex and Nifty Climb on India–US Trade Deal

Q) How does the India–US interim trade framework practically translate into higher earnings for Indian listed exporters?
The framework can lower landed costs for Indian goods in the US by reducing tariffs, which may improve price competitiveness and order volumes. However, actual earnings impact depends on product categories covered, contract renegotiations with buyers, currency movement, and how quickly tariff changes are implemented. Companies with higher US revenue exposure stand to benefit more, but results will likely show with a lag.

Q) Why do benchmark indices like Sensex and Nifty react quickly to trade policy news even before earnings change?
Equity markets are forward-looking and tend to price in expectations. Trade policy shifts can alter growth, margin, and capital flow outlooks, which influences valuations. Institutional investors often adjust allocations based on perceived policy stability and geopolitical risk, leading to swift index-level reactions.

Q) Can a single large bank’s results, such as SBI’s, meaningfully move the entire market?
Yes, because large banks have high index weights and are closely tied to the economic cycle. Strong results from a systemically important bank can signal healthy credit demand, stable asset quality, and resilient financial conditions, which can lift sentiment across financials and the broader market.

Q) How should investors interpret rallies driven partly by foreign institutional investor (FII) buying?
FII-driven rallies can be powerful but are also sensitive to global cues like US rates, dollar strength, and risk appetite. Sustained inflows often support valuations, but short-term flows can reverse. Investors typically watch whether flows are consistent across weeks rather than reacting to a single day’s data.

Q) Why do lower crude oil prices matter so much for Indian equities?
India imports a large share of its oil needs, so lower crude prices can ease inflation, reduce the trade deficit, and improve fiscal math. This macro relief can support currency stability and rate-sensitive sectors like banks, autos, and consumer stocks. Still, oil prices are volatile and influenced by global factors beyond India’s control.

Q) If broader markets (midcaps and smallcaps) outperform large caps, what does that signal about risk appetite?
Outperformance in midcaps and smallcaps often indicates higher domestic risk appetite and liquidity chasing growth opportunities. It can reflect optimism about the domestic economy, but it may also raise valuation concerns if fundamentals don’t keep pace. Institutional investors usually monitor whether earnings justify the move.

Q) What are the key signals investors should watch to judge if this rally has durability?
Investors typically track:

• Consistency of FII and domestic flows

• Follow-through on trade policy announcements

• Upcoming corporate earnings trends

• Inflation and interest-rate outlook

• Whether indices hold above key technical support zones

A rally backed by earnings and flows tends to be more durable than one driven only by headlines.