Sensex and Nifty Lifted by Late Buying — Are Bulls Regaining Control Into the Close?

Sensex recovers 266 points, Nifty closes near 25,700 as RBI hold and last-hour buying steady markets

Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	25,693.70	50.90	+0.20%
Nifty Bank	60,120.55	56.90	+0.09%
Nifty Financial	27,807.10	117.75	+0.43%
BSE SENSEX	83,580.40	266.47	+0.32%

Indian equity benchmarks staged a late recovery on Friday, with the Sensex rising 266 points and the Nifty closing near the 25,700 mark, as investors responded positively to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision and selective buying in FMCG and banking heavyweights.

After a volatile session marked by early losses, the BSE Sensex closed up 0.32% at 83,580.40, while the NSE Nifty 50 settled at 25,693.70, up 0.20%. The Bank Nifty also ended marginally higher at 60,120.55.

The rebound helped the benchmarks log their best weekly performance in about three months, with both the Sensex and Nifty gaining roughly 1.5% for the week, aided by improving global trade sentiment following a U.S. trade deal and domestic policy stability.

Also Read : ITC and Other Cigarette Stocks Are Stirring Back to Life — Why Are Investors Taking a Fresh Look at the Sector?

RBI’s steady policy stance reassures markets seeking stability

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI unanimously kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a “neutral” stance, broadly in line with market expectations.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the inflation outlook remains comfortable, with CPI inflation for FY26 projected at 2.1%. The central bank expects price pressures to remain contained amid stable domestic conditions.

A status quo on rates reassured investors that borrowing costs would not rise abruptly, supporting risk appetite in equities.

“RBI’s monetary policy came exactly on expected lines with no change in rates, and stance kept unchanged at neutral,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd.

Volatile session sees Nifty swing before closing near highs

Markets opened weak amid soft global cues, with the Nifty hovering near 25,600 and slipping to an intraday low around 25,492. Selling pressure briefly dragged the index below 25,500 before buyers stepped in.

A mid-session recovery followed by strong last-hour buying pushed the index close to the day’s high.

On technical charts, the Nifty formed a small-bodied candle with a long lower wick, often interpreted by traders as a sign of buying interest at lower levels.

Analysts see immediate resistance in the 25,750–25,800 zone and support around 25,550–25,500. A decisive breakout on either side could set the next directional move.

Volatile session sees Nifty swing nearly 200 points intraday

Markets opened weak on soft global cues, with Nifty around 25,600 and slipping to an intraday low of 25,492. Selling dragged the index below 25,500 before mid-session buying emerged.

A sharp final-hour rebound lifted the index toward 25,700, closing near the day’s high.

Technically, Nifty formed a small-bodied candle with a long lower wick — typically seen as buying support at lower levels.

Analysts place:

• Support: 25,550–25,500

• Resistance: 25,750–25,800

• Breakout above 25,800 could push Nifty to 26,000–26,200

FMCG and cigarette stocks power gains as pricing strength returns

FMCG rose 2.2%, leading sectoral gains.

Cigarette makers surged after price hikes were passed on following the new tax regime:

• ITC +5%

• Godfrey Phillips +13%

• VST Industries gained

The rally was supported by value buying after January’s correction and stronger earnings visibility.

Recent results showed:

• ITC profit up 6.4% YoY

• Godfrey Phillips profit up 9% YoY

Nearly 100 stocks hit 52-week lows despite index recovery

Market breadth remained weak even as indices closed higher.

Close to 100 stocks touched 52-week lows, including:

Poly Medicure, Cyient, Hexaware Technologies, AAVAS Financier, Syngene, Newgen Software, Happiest Minds, Vedant Fashions, Info Edge, Mankind Pharma, KPIT Tech and P&G.

Daily market action showed:

• Advancers: 1,340

• Decliners: 1,784

• 52-week highs: 29

• 52-week lows: 80

This indicates selective participation rather than broad-based strength.

Broader markets underperform as risk appetite stays selective

Broader indices lagged:

• Midcap index flat to -0.2%

• Smallcap index -0.3%

This suggests investors preferred large-cap defensives over riskier segments.

Sectoral rotation shows defensive tilt

Top gaining sectors:

• Consumer Durables (+2.66%)

• Oil & Gas (+2.08%)

• Auto (+1.18%)

• Realty (+1.12%)

• FMCG (+2.2%)

Top losing sectors:

• IT (-1.5%)

• Pharma (-0.7%)

• PSU Banks (-0.5%)

IT weakness reflects ongoing AI and global tech spending concerns.

India VIX cools as fear gauge eases

India VIX fell 1.86% to 11.94, indicating reduced volatility expectations.

A lower VIX often improves trading confidence but does not guarantee sustained rallies.

Rupee weakens despite equity gains as oil prices and outflows weigh on sentiment

The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday even as domestic equity markets ended higher, highlighting the divergence between currency and equity sentiment in the current environment. The rupee declined 36 paise to settle at 90.70 per dollar (provisional) in the interbank foreign exchange market.

The currency had opened stronger at 90.28 and briefly appreciated to an intraday high of 90.18 after the RBI’s policy announcement reassured markets. However, the early gains proved short-lived as external pressures resurfaced through the session.

Forex traders pointed to a combination of factors weighing on the rupee, including:

• Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran developments

• A sharp rise in global crude oil prices, which raises India’s import bill

• Sustained foreign fund outflows from domestic markets

• Continued corporate dollar demand toward session close

Stock-specific action highlights how earnings season is driving sharp divergence

Stock-specific moves remained intense as the earnings season continued to shape trading patterns, with investors rewarding companies that beat expectations and punishing those that disappointed or saw broker downgrades. The divergence in price action showed that markets are increasingly selective rather than moving in a broad-based trend.

Major moves included:

• Hitachi Energy India rising 14% after Emkay Global upgraded the stock, triggering fresh buying interest.

• Nykaa gaining 7% after reporting a 142% jump in quarterly profit, which reassured investors about margin improvement and business traction.

• MRF climbing 8% after Q3 profit rose to ₹691 crore, supporting optimism around premium tyre demand.

• BEML falling 6% after reporting losses, which weighed on confidence.

• Hexaware Technologies declining 4% after downgrades from Avendus Spark, HSBC and JPMorgan.

• JM Financial slipping 2% despite a 50% profit rise, indicating that expectations may have already been priced in.

• Talbros Automotive falling 3% even after announcing multi-year orders worth over ₹1,000 crore, showing that order wins do not always translate into immediate stock support.

Elevated MWPL levels in several stocks point to speculative positioning

Derivative data also reflected heightened activity. A number of stocks showed elevated Market-Wide Position Limit (MWPL) utilisation, which often indicates crowded trades and speculative build-up in the futures and options segment.

Stocks with high MWPL readings included:

RVNL, BDL, IEX, RBL Bank, HUDCO, IRCTC, IRFC, IREDA, LIC Housing Finance and Bandhan Bank.

Mixed global cues keep overseas sentiment cautious

Global signals remained mixed, limiting the scope for aggressive risk-taking.

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%

• Hang Seng declined 1.4%

• Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 2%

• Shanghai Composite was largely flat

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed

Here’s what happened today and why traders reacted

Friday’s session was shaped by a combination of domestic policy clarity and tactical buying. After early weakness, markets saw a recovery as traders responded to multiple supportive cues.

Traders reacted to:

• RBI maintaining rates and stance as expected

• Value buying after recent declines

• Strong rally in FMCG and cigarette stocks

• Cooling volatility as India VIX eased

• Last-hour institutional buying that lifted indices

• Optimism around improving global trade visibility

What this means for investors navigating a range-bound market

For investors, the current environment indicates a market that is consolidating rather than trending strongly in one direction. Sector rotation and stock selection are playing a bigger role than index moves.

Key takeaways for portfolios:

• Markets remain broadly range-bound

• Defensive sectors such as FMCG are attracting flows

• Broader market participation is still uneven

• Currency and global cues continue to influence flows

• Earnings season is the primary driver of stock moves

What to watch next as markets look for direction

Looking ahead, several triggers could influence near-term market direction.

Key watchpoints include:

• Whether Nifty can decisively break above 25,800

• Direction of foreign institutional investor flows

• Global risk sentiment and U.S. market trends

• Movement in crude oil and the rupee

• Ongoing earnings commentary and guidance

• Nifty 50
• Bank Nifty
• Sensex

FAQs Sensex and Nifty Lifted by Late Buying

Q) Why do stock markets sometimes rise even when many stocks hit 52-week lows?

Stock indices like the Sensex and Nifty are weighted toward large-cap companies, so gains in heavyweight stocks such as FMCG or banking names can lift the index even if many mid- and small-cap stocks are falling. This creates a situation where headline indices look positive while broader market breadth remains weak.

Q) How does an RBI decision to keep interest rates unchanged influence short-term stock market sentiment?

When the RBI holds rates steady, it signals policy stability and reduces uncertainty around borrowing costs. This often reassures equity investors, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like banking, auto and real estate. However, if the decision is already expected, the market reaction may be limited to short-term volatility rather than a sustained rally.

Q) Why do FMCG and cigarette stocks often rally after tax hikes instead of falling?

Cigarette and FMCG companies usually have strong pricing power and loyal customer bases. When taxes rise, these firms often pass on the higher costs to consumers through price hikes. If investors believe demand will remain resilient, stocks can rise on expectations of protected margins and stable earnings.

Q) What does a falling India VIX indicate for retail traders and short-term investors?

A falling India VIX suggests lower expected volatility in the near term. For traders, this often means smaller price swings and potentially lower option premiums. For investors, it can indicate improving sentiment, but it does not guarantee that markets will rise — only that fear levels are moderating.

Q) How do global markets like the S&P 500 or Hang Seng influence Indian stock prices the next day?

Indian markets are closely linked to global risk sentiment. Weakness in U.S. or Asian markets can lead to cautious openings in India as foreign investors adjust exposure. However, strong domestic triggers like policy decisions or earnings can sometimes offset negative global cues.

Q) Why do some stocks fall even after reporting strong profits or big order wins?

Stocks move based on expectations, not just results. If strong earnings were already priced in, or if investors doubt sustainability, prices can fall despite good numbers. Similarly, large orders may not immediately boost profitability, leading to muted or negative reactions.

Q) How should long-term investors approach markets that are range-bound between key levels like 25,500–25,800 on Nifty?

In range-bound markets, long-term investors often focus less on index levels and more on company fundamentals. Such phases can offer opportunities to accumulate quality stocks during dips, while avoiding overtrading. Patience and selective buying typically matter more than trying to time short-term moves.