Asian markets fell sharply on Thursday after fresh US strikes on Iran increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Wall Street futures also slipped, while oil prices surged again after concerns over global oil supply returned.
The latest US-Iran conflict triggered risk-off sentiment across global stock markets. Investors turned cautious as fears of higher crude oil prices and market volatility increased.
Back home, Indian stock markets remained closed due to a holiday. However, Gift Nifty fell 0.86 percent, signaling weak sentiment for Dalal Street.
LIVE : GIFT NIFTY
Top 5 Major Stocks to Watch as Gift Nifty Signals Weak Opening
Gift Nifty slipped sharply amid renewed US-Iran tensions and rising crude oil prices, indicating pressure on Indian equities when markets reopen. Here are five major stocks likely to remain in focus based on global cues and sector sensitivity:
| Stock | Sector | Current Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | Oil & Energy | ₹1,350.50 | -0.43% |
| Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) | Upstream Oil & Gas | ₹274.05 | -4.68% |
| InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) | Aviation | ₹4,570.00 | +1.99% |
| Asian Paints | Paints & Chemicals | ₹2,671.90 | +0.94% |
| Bharat Electronics (BEL) | Defence | ₹419.10 | -0.24% |
Key Takeaways
- Oil-linked stocks such as ONGC could outperform if Brent crude sustains above USD 90 per barrel.
- Aviation and paint companies may remain under pressure because of rising fuel and raw material costs.
- Defence stocks are attracting investor attention amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Reliance Industries will be closely tracked due to its exposure to both energy and retail segments.
Gift Nifty was trading lower by nearly 0.8–0.9%, indicating a cautious start for Dalal Street amid global uncertainty and volatile crude oil prices.
Fresh US Strikes on Iran Shake Global Markets
The US military confirmed fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian drones allegedly posed a threat to regional security.
According to US officials, Central Command forces shot down four Iranian attack drones. The US military also targeted an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was preparing another drone launch.
The fresh US strikes on Iran raised concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate further.
US President Donald Trump said Iran was “negotiating on fumes” and signaled that the United States would not rush toward a peace deal.
The statement added pressure on global markets already worried about rising geopolitical risks.
Read More : Sensex Crash, Nifty Holds 23,900 as US-Iran Tensions Keep Traders on Edge
India Inflation Trend (2021–2026)
Over the last five years (2021 to mid-2026), India’s retail inflation — measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — has averaged roughly 4.5% to 4.8% annually, leading to a cumulative price increase of approximately 25%–27%. This means an item that cost ₹100 in 2021 would now cost around ₹125–₹127.
Year-by-Year CPI Inflation
| Year | Average CPI Inflation |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 5.13% |
| 2022 | 6.70% |
| 2023 | 5.65% |
| 2024 | 4.95% |
| 2025 | 2%–3.7% range |
| 2026 (latest available) | 3.4% |
The inflation spike in 2022 was mainly driven by global commodity shocks, supply-chain disruptions and rising crude oil prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Inflation has moderated significantly since late 2024 due to easing food prices and RBI policy measures.
RBI Inflation Target
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to maintain a medium-term inflation target of 4%, with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. The government recently retained this framework for the next five years.
Investor Perspective
- Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the rupee by nearly 20%–25% since 2021.
- Higher crude oil prices and Middle East tensions could again push inflation upward in 2026.
- Persistent inflation may weaken the rupee and reduce the RBI’s room for aggressive rate cuts.
Current RBI projections indicate inflation could remain near the 3.7%–4% range during FY26 if global commodity prices stay stable.
Sector-Wise Impact on Indian Markets
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices are expected to create sharp sectoral divergence in Indian markets once trading resumes.
Track Live : NSE Option Chain
Likely Beneficiaries if Crude Prices Rise
Upstream Oil & Gas Companies
Indian upstream energy firms are expected to benefit because higher crude prices improve revenue realisations and profitability.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oil and Natural Gas Corporation | ₹274.05 | -4.68% |
| Oil India | ₹488.00 | -0.83% |
| Hindustan Oil Exploration Company | ₹169.46 | +4.68% |
Analysts estimate that every major rise in crude prices significantly boosts earnings for upstream firms like ONGC and Oil India.
Defence Stocks
Defence stocks could remain in focus amid rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of stronger defence spending.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bharat Electronics | ₹338 | +1.84% |
| Hindustan Aeronautics | ₹419.10 | -0.24% |
| Bharat Dynamics | ₹1,282.20 | -3.59% |
Defence companies often witness stronger investor interest during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
Shipping & Energy Logistics Firms
Shipping companies may benefit if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz increase freight and tanker rates globally.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shipping Corporation of India | ₹303.45 | -1.49% |
| Great Eastern Shipping Company | ₹1,511.30 | -8.44% |
| Essar Shipping | ₹24.01 | +1.61% |
Global shipping costs tend to rise when crude supply routes face disruption risks.
Sectors Likely to Face Pressure
Aviation
Airlines are among the biggest losers when crude prices rise because aviation turbine fuel (ATF) is a major operating expense.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| InterGlobe Aviation | ₹4,570.00 | +1.99% |
Airlines may face margin pressure if fuel prices continue rising.
Paint Companies
Paint makers use crude-linked derivatives as raw materials, making them vulnerable to rising oil prices.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Asian Paints | ₹2,671.90 | +0.94% |
| Berger Paints India | ₹526.95 | +2.21% |
| Kansai Nerolac Paints | ₹218.34 | +0.27% |
Higher crude prices could increase input costs and compress margins.
Tyre Manufacturers
Tyre companies rely heavily on crude-linked inputs such as synthetic rubber and carbon black.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| MRF | ₹1,27,040.00 | -0.09% |
| Apollo Tyres | ₹399.75 | +1.65% |
| JK Tyre & Industries | ₹413.30 | +4.86% |
Input cost inflation may pressure operating margins if crude remains elevated.
FMCG Companies
FMCG firms may see rising transportation, packaging and logistics expenses.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Hindustan Unilever | ₹2,198.40 | -0.50% |
| ITC | ₹291.95 | -0.58% |
| Nestle India | ₹1,427.50 | -0.08% |
Higher fuel and packaging costs may affect profitability for consumer goods companies.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs)
Downstream oil retailers may face pressure if fuel prices are not increased proportionately.
| Company | Approx Share Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Indian Oil Corporation | ₹143.94 | +1.10% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation | ₹307.15 | +0.84% |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corporation | ₹402.90 | +1.23% |
OMC stocks recently rallied after fuel price hikes, but sustained crude inflation could hurt refining and marketing margins.
Broader Market Implications
India imports nearly 80–85% of its crude oil requirement, making the economy highly sensitive to oil price spikes. Sustained high crude prices can:
- Increase inflation
- Widen the current account deficit
- Put pressure on the Indian rupee
- Reduce corporate profit margins
- Trigger higher market volatility
Investors are likely to closely monitor Brent crude prices, developments around the Strait of Hormuz, and further US-Iran military or diplomatic actions in the coming sessions.
Wall Street Futures Decline as Investors Turn Defensive
Wall Street futures traded lower in early Thursday trade after the fresh US military action.
Nasdaq futures dropped 0.9 percent. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.41 percent, while Dow Jones futures fell 0.21 percent.
The decline came after US markets had touched record highs a day earlier when oil prices corrected sharply.
Now, investors fear that higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions could hurt global growth and increase inflation pressure again.
“Markets are reacting to uncertainty around oil supply and geopolitical stability,” said a global market analyst.
Asian Stock Markets Trade Lower Amid Rising Risk
Asian stock markets mostly traded in the red as investors reduced exposure to risky assets.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.9 percent to 24,855.86. South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2 percent to 8,126.67.
China’s Shanghai Composite index slipped 0.3 percent to 4,080.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained nearly flat and edged up less than 0.1 percent to 65,039.78.
The broader weakness in Asian markets reflected growing fears over the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices.
Oil Prices Rise Again After Sharp Fall
Brent crude oil prices rebounded strongly after fresh US strikes on Iran.
Brent crude had fallen 4.6 percent in the previous session to USD 92.25 per barrel after ceasefire hopes improved sentiment.
However, oil prices rose again on Thursday. Brent crude climbed USD 1.70 to USD 93.95 per barrel in early trade.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key global oil route. Any military tension near the region usually impacts crude oil prices immediately.
Rising oil prices remain a major concern for economies like India that depend heavily on crude imports.
Here’s What Happened Today and Why Traders Reacted
Global traders reacted sharply because the market expected tensions between the United States and Iran to cool down.
Instead, fresh US strikes on Iran revived fears of a bigger conflict in the Middle East.
Three major factors impacted the market today:
- Fresh US military strikes on Iran
- Rising Brent crude oil prices
- Weak Wall Street futures and Asian markets
These developments pushed investors toward safer assets and triggered selling in equities.
What Impact Could This Have on Investors?
The latest US-Iran tensions could increase short-term volatility in global and Indian stock markets.
Higher oil prices may negatively impact sectors like aviation, paints, logistics, and chemicals due to rising costs.
At the same time, oil and gas companies could benefit if crude oil prices continue rising.
Technology stocks may also remain under pressure if Wall Street weakness continues.
Gift Nifty’s 0.86 percent fall suggests Indian markets could witness a weak opening in the next trading session.
Investors Watch Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions Closely
Global investors are now closely tracking oil prices, US-Iran tensions, and movements in Wall Street futures.
Any further escalation in the Middle East could increase volatility across equity, commodity, and currency markets.
For now, investor sentiment remains cautious as traders wait for fresh developments from the United States and Iran.
Gift Nifty is a futures contract based on India’s benchmark Nifty 50 index. It is traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) at GIFT City and is widely used as an early indicator of how Indian stock markets may open.
Earlier, it was known as SGX Nifty because it traded on the Singapore Exchange. In 2023, trading shifted to India’s GIFT City and the name changed to Gift Nifty.
Why Gift Nifty is Important
- Shows likely opening direction of Indian markets before NSE opens
- Reflects global market sentiment overnight
- Helps traders track impact of:
- US markets
- crude oil prices
- geopolitical tensions
- global economic news
Example
- If Gift Nifty is up 150 points, traders expect Nifty 50 to open positive.
- If Gift Nifty is down sharply, Indian markets may open weak.
Key Features
| Feature | Gift Nifty |
|---|---|
| Based on | Nifty 50 |
| Traded at | NSE IX, GIFT City |
| Currency | US Dollar (USD) |
| Earlier Name | SGX Nifty |
| Main Use | Pre-market indicator |
| Trading Hours | Nearly 20+ hours |
Why Investors Track It Daily
Financial news channels mention Gift Nifty every morning because it gives the first signal about market mood before Indian trading begins. Recent geopolitical events and US-Iran tensions also caused sharp movements in Gift Nifty, impacting expectations for Indian markets.
