Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 target to 8,000 as AI earnings hit 5-year high

Why Goldman moved, and why now

The upgrade is specifically an earnings call, not a valuation call. Goldman’s base case holds the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings multiple roughly flat at around 21x; that multiple has actually declined 4% year-to-date even as the index climbed 10%.

What changed was the profit picture. Snider wrote directly to clients: “Earnings growth has powered the entire S&P 500 return so far this year, and we expect this dynamic to continue in coming months.”

What makes this revision stand out is the speed of Goldman’s own internal shift. Back on April 24, Goldman was projecting a 7,600-year-end target with just 12% EPS growth in 2026, a fairly cautious second-half outlook.

In five weeks, the firm nearly doubled its EPS growth forecast to 24% and pushed its price target 5.3% higher. That’s not a tweak. That’s a full reassessment.

Also Read: Goldman’s Bold Bet: 12 India Stocks Amid $22B FII selloff

The Q1 earnings data that drove the call

Goldman didn’t upgrade on optimism alone. Q1 blended S&P 500 earnings growth came in at 28.4%, the highest reading in approximately five years.

FactSet data showed 84% of reporting companies beat earnings estimates, compared to the five-year average of 78%, while 81% exceeded revenue forecasts.

That’s the foundation Snider explicitly cited as justification for lifting both the price target and the EPS projections.

Near-term earnings growth has accounted for approximately 40% of the total S&P 500 gain over the past two years, Goldman noted.

And critically, the stocks with the strongest upward earnings revisions have been the ones that broadly outperformed year-to-date, which is exactly the pattern Goldman expects to continue.

Goldman’s earnings forecast vs. April outlook

Goldman’s April 24 EPS figure is estimated from prior 12% growth projection off 2025 base.

AI infrastructure: the engine behind half the growth

Goldman estimates AI infrastructure beneficiaries will account for roughly half of total S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026.

Semiconductor firms and data center suppliers are central to that projection. Snider specifically flagged hyperscalers and power infrastructure companies as the most attractive opportunities within the AI buildout theme, two sub-sectors that have consistently delivered positive earnings revisions this year.

The scale of spending underpinning this is significant.

Last quarter, consensus capital expenditure estimates for the largest cloud infrastructure companies jumped by $130 billion, reaching $670 billion for 2026, equivalent to more than 90% of their expected cash flows for the year.

That level of commitment is what Goldman’s earnings thesis ultimately rests on. Snider acknowledged in the note that investor skepticism about the persistence of AI-related earnings remains a valuation headwind, but the current data flow hasn’t justified that skepticism yet.

Wall Street consensus: Goldman isn’t alone

Goldman’s upgrade to 8,000 puts it in line with Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, both of which have also pencilled in approximately 17% total returns for the S&P 500 this year.

The new Goldman target sits tied for second-highest in the 2026 CNBC Market Strategist Survey.

UBS Global Wealth Management has also recently raised its market outlook, pointing to AI-driven earnings as a buffer against inflationary pressure and supply-chain disruption risks linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The direction of Wall Street’s major houses is clearly aligned.

S&P 500 top movers — May 28, 2026

Data as of May 28, 2026, 01:30 AM IST.

Key risks Goldman flagged