Foreign investors have cut telecom exposure even as subscriber additions and ARPU rise; the next tariff cycle remains the key uncertainty.
Market data and company disclosures available as of September 30, 2026.
Foreign investors have continued to sell Indian telecom stocks even as the sector’s operating numbers show improvement. An August sector-flow compilation put Telecommunication FPI outflows at ₹28,131 crore for January-August 2026, while The Economic Times reported on September 30 that telecom had seen more than ₹32,000 crore of cumulative FPI outflows over eight consecutive months. The difference reflects the different reporting periods and datasets rather than a contradiction.
At the same time, India’s mobile subscriber base continues to expand and all three major private operators reported higher Q1 FY27 ARPU. That creates a market tension for telecom stocks: foreign selling remains heavy while operating indicators are improving. The next major variable is whether ARPU growth can continue without the broad tariff increase that brokerages had expected.
Need to Know
- Telecom stocks have seen FPI selling every month in CY2026, with ₹28,131 crore of cumulative outflows through August, according to NSDL data reported by The Economic Times. August alone saw nearly ₹5,000 crore of outflows.
- The latest ET report says foreign investors sold another ₹4,474 crore in telecom during the September fortnightly period. Keep this latest figure separate from the earlier ₹991 crore September 1–15 snapshot rather than combining the two.
- TRAI data show India’s wireless mobile subscriber base increased by 5.51 million to 1,293.43 million in August. Jio added 2.40 million, Airtel 2.11 million, Vi 506,139 and BSNL 492,831.
- Q1 FY27 ARPU was ₹264 for Airtel, ₹215.6 for Jio and ₹195 for Vi. Vi’s ARPU rose 10.2% YoY.
- Motilal Oswal has modelled a roughly 15% mobile tariff increase from Q2 FY27, equivalent to about ₹50 on a 28-day 1.5GB/day base plan. However, this remains a brokerage assumption, not a confirmed industry-wide tariff hike as of September 30.
Foreign selling remains the pressure point
The telecom sector has remained under sustained foreign selling in 2026.
Mata Securities’ August sector-flow compilation showed ₹28,131 crore of cumulative FPI outflows from Telecommunication during January-August. Telecom was among the sectors facing substantial foreign selling despite overall FPI equity buying returning in July and August.
The newer September picture shows that selling continued.
NSDL-based data reported by Moneycontrol showed ₹991 crore of telecom FPI selling between September 1 and 15, compared with ₹3,322 crore during August 1-15. The pace therefore eased in the first half of September, but the September number covers only one fortnight.
The Economic Times reported on September 30 that telecom had recorded FPI selling for an eighth consecutive month, taking cumulative outflows above ₹32,000 crore.
These figures should not be added together mechanically. The ₹28,131 crore figure represents January-August sector flows, while the ₹32,000-plus figure is the later cumulative figure reported for the eight-month selling streak.
Subscriber additions remain resilient
TRAI’s August data provide a contrasting picture.
India’s wireless mobile subscriber base increased by 5,505,378 during August, taking the total to 1,293.43 million, up 0.43% month on month.
The major private operators all added users:
| Operator | August 2026 additions | August subscriber base | Market share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Jio | 2.40 mn | 508.43 mn | 39.31% |
| Bharti Airtel | 2.11 mn | 491.60 mn | 38.01% |
| Vodafone Idea | 0.51 mn | 199.57 mn | 15.43% |
Jio remained India’s largest mobile operator by subscriber base, followed by Airtel, while Vi continued its subscriber-growth streak.
August’s 5.51 million mobile additions were broadly in line with recent months, rather than representing a clear acceleration in subscriber growth. The July figure was above 6 million on a wireless basis that includes fixed wireless, while June also recorded additions above 5 million.
The composition of August growth also matters. Urban wireless subscriptions increased 0.70% during the month, compared with 0.13% growth in rural subscriptions.
ARPU is rising despite no new broad tariff cycle
The industry’s ARPU trend is another positive operating signal.
For Q1 FY27:
- Bharti Airtel: ₹264
- Reliance Jio: ₹215.6
- Vodafone Idea: ₹195
Vi recorded the fastest year-on-year ARPU growth among the three, with a 10.2% increase to ₹195. Airtel remained the leader on absolute ARPU at ₹264, while Jio reported ₹215.6.
The improvement has come without a new industry-wide headline tariff increase.
That makes the next pricing cycle particularly important. Higher-value customers, premiumisation and usage can support ARPU, but a broad tariff increase would provide a different and potentially larger earnings lever.
The tariff hike expected by brokerages has not arrived
Motilal Oswal had expected a roughly 15% mobile tariff increase from Q2 FY27, translating to approximately ₹50 on a 28-day plan. The brokerage said such an increase could support sector revenue growth.
But that remains a brokerage assumption, not an announced industry action.
As of September 30, Airtel, Jio and Vi had not announced a broad industry-wide smartphone tariff increase.
The timing has therefore become an expectation gap. Q2 FY27 ends today, but the tariff reset that had been incorporated into some FY27 models has not materialised.
More recent brokerage expectations have already moved out. Business Standard reported that HSBC expected tariff hikes in the January-March 2027 quarter, while Motilal Oswal had previously expected a hike between September and February.
That creates uncertainty around near-term telecom earnings estimates: the longer the tariff increase is delayed, the longer operators have to rely on subscriber mix, premiumisation and usage growth to lift revenue.
Vodafone Idea: operating recovery meets funding requirements
Vodafone Idea remains the most funding-sensitive name among the major listed telecom operators.
Vi reported Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹11,689 crore, up 6% year on year, while its net loss narrowed to ₹3,754 crore. Its subscriber base increased to 193.1 million from 192.8 million, marking its first quarterly net subscriber addition since the merger.
Its ARPU increased to ₹195, up 10.2% year on year, while EBITDA rose 9.1% to ₹5,034 crore.
Vi has also planned ₹45,000 crore of network investment over three years from FY27, with ₹9,000 crore of orders already placed, according to the company’s Q1 disclosures.
The operating improvement therefore needs to be considered alongside the company’s funding requirements and network rollout.
Jefferies sees Vi as a high-beta turnaround opportunity
Jefferies initiated coverage on Vodafone Idea in September and described it as a “high-beta turnaround opportunity”, with a ₹20 price target and a Buy rating. Those are the brokerage’s views, not NiftyTrader’s assessment.
The brokerage expects subscriber stabilisation, premiumisation and tariff-led ARPU growth to support revenue growth. Its model assumes a 15% tariff hike in April 2027.
However, Jefferies also sees a funding requirement ahead. It expects Vi’s cash outflows to rise above ₹40,000 crore annually during FY29-FY34 and models a ₹25,000 crore debt raise for FY27-FY29 and a required ₹16,000 crore equity infusion in FY30.
That makes the Vi turnaround dependent not only on tariff increases and subscriber stabilisation, but also on funding and execution.
Airtel, Jio and Vi: key numbers
| Metric | Bharti Airtel | Reliance Jio | Vodafone Idea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 ARPU | ₹264 | ₹215.6 | ₹195 |
| August 2026 mobile base | 491.60 mn | 508.43 mn | 199.57 mn |
| August additions | 2.11 mn | 2.40 mn | 0.51 mn |
| Key operating issue | Tariff timing | Monetising scale | Funding and rollout |
Sources: TRAI and company Q1 FY27 disclosures. Subscriber figures are for August 2026, while ARPU figures relate to Q1 FY27 and therefore cover different reporting periods.
What could change the telecom stocks narrative?
1. A confirmed tariff increase
A broad tariff increase would provide the clearest evidence that operators can monetise rising data consumption and lift wireless revenue.
2. Sustained ARPU growth
If ARPU continues to rise while subscriber additions remain positive, operators can improve revenue even before a new headline tariff cycle.
3. Vi funding and network execution
For Vodafone Idea, continued access to capital and execution of the planned network rollout remain important forward-looking variables.
4. A change in FPI flows
September’s first-half telecom selling slowed to ₹991 crore from ₹3,322 crore in the comparable August period. The full September sector number will show whether that easing was temporary or marks a broader change in foreign positioning.
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What to watch next
The next major data points for telecom stocks are full-September FPI sector flows, September subscriber data and Q2 FY27 results.
The key question is no longer simply whether India’s telecom subscriber base is growing. It is whether operators can convert subscriber additions, higher ARPU and 5G usage into stronger cash generation.
The sector therefore enters the next quarter with a clear expectation gap.
Foreign investors have continued to reduce telecom exposure, while operating indicators remain positive. But the earnings catalyst that many brokerages had expected — a broad tariff reset — has not yet arrived.
That leaves tariff timing, ARPU progression, capex intensity and Vi’s funding execution as the major variables to watch.
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FAQs
Why are FPIs selling telecom stocks in 2026?
Sector-flow data show sustained foreign selling in telecom during 2026. ET and brokerage commentary have pointed to factors including 5G and spectrum expenditure, balance-sheet pressures and AGR-related obligations. Individual FPI decisions cannot be attributed to a single factor from flow data alone.
How much did FPIs sell from telecom stocks through August 2026?
Mata Securities’ August sector-flow compilation shows ₹28,131 crore of cumulative FPI outflows from Telecommunication during January-August 2026.
Why is another report showing more than ₹32,000 crore?
The ₹32,000-plus figure is a later cumulative figure reported by The Economic Times for the eight-month selling streak through September, while ₹28,131 crore is the January-August figure from the August sector-flow compilation. They have different cutoffs and should not be treated as the same dataset.
How much did FPIs sell in telecom in September?
NSDL-based data showed ₹991 crore of telecom selling from September 1-15, compared with ₹3,322 crore during August 1-15. The full September sector figure was not available in that fortnightly dataset at the time of publication.
Which telecom operator has the highest ARPU?
Bharti Airtel reported the highest Q1 FY27 ARPU at ₹264, followed by Jio at ₹215.6 and Vodafone Idea at ₹195.
Has a new telecom tariff hike been announced?
No broad industry-wide smartphone tariff increase had been announced by Airtel, Jio or Vi as of September 30, 2026. Brokerage models had incorporated potential increases, but those remain expectations until operators announce new tariffs.
Is Vodafone Idea’s subscriber decline over?
Vi reported its first quarterly net subscriber addition since the merger in Q1 FY27, with its subscriber base rising to 193.1 million from 192.8 million. However, funding and network rollout remain important forward-looking issues.
Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently verify data and assess risks before making investment decisions.
