Reliance’s Next Growth Phase: Why Analysts See a Shift Beyond Heavy Capex

Key Takeaways

• RIL traded at Rs 1,279.60 (+0.59%) around 12:01 pm on July 24, 2026, with a NiftyTrader Stock Score of 8/10 and a Strong Buy consensus from 28 analysts
• Motilal Oswal projects ~Rs 90,000 crore cumulative free cash flow for RIL over FY26-FY28 as the capex cycle peaks
• Q1 FY27 consolidated EBITDA rose 11% YoY to Rs 47,500 crore; adjusted profit rose 16% YoY to ~Rs 20,900 crore
• Jio is expected to drive ~85% of RIL’s incremental EBITDA through FY28, with a possible 15% tariff hike in December 2026 post-IPO
• Retail EBITDA margins remain under pressure from JioMart’s quick-commerce push; Goldman Sachs sees this lasting 3-4 more quarters
• Consolidated leverage could fall to 0.7x by FY28 as free cash flow builds, per Motilal Oswal

RIL Share Price Today: Strong Buy Consensus Holds Firm

Reliance Industries shares were trading at Rs 1,279.60 on the NSE around 12:01 pm on July 24, 2026, up Rs 7.40 or 0.59% from the previous close of Rs 1,272.20. The stock moved in a band of roughly Rs 1,260 to Rs 1,284 through the session so far.

On NiftyTrader’s proprietary scoring system, RIL currently carries a Stock Score of 8 out of 10. The mean recommendation from 28 covering analysts stands at Strong Buy: 17 analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, 10 rate it Buy, one recommends Sell, and none suggest Hold or Strong Sell. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 23.17 and ranks No. 1 by market capitalisation among Indian listed companies.

That steady price action and bullish analyst tilt come days after Reliance’s June-quarter results pushed several brokerages to revisit their free cash flow assumptions through FY28.

Check Live: Reliance Option Chain Live – RIL Options Data

The Rs 90,000 Crore Cash Flow Story Brokerages Are Betting On

Behind the Strong Buy consensus on RIL stock lies a bigger structural argument: Reliance may be close to turning free cash flow positive after three years of heavy spending.

Motilal Oswal estimates the company could generate close to Rs 90,000 crore in cumulative free cash flow between FY26 and FY28, even with annual consolidated capital expenditure staying elevated at around Rs 1.3 lakh crore.

JPMorgan analyst Sanjay Mookim points out that RIL has run materially negative free cash flow for three straight years. With an annual EBITDA run-rate of roughly $20 billion, he expects the drag from investment to ease enough for the company to turn free cash flow positive, even as it continues spending on new energy, retail, and petrochemical expansion.

Reliance’s own balance sheet offers an early signal. The company closed the June quarter with reported net debt of Rs 1.23 lakh crore, largely unchanged sequentially despite deploying Rs 38,700 crore in capital expenditure during the three months. Motilal Oswal believes this cash generation could pull consolidated leverage down to 0.7 times by FY28, a meaningful de-leveraging.

Q1 FY27 Scorecard: Energy Segment Leads the Beat

Reliance’s June-quarter results gave brokerages the data points to build their FY28 cash flow case. Consolidated EBITDA rose 11% year-on-year and 8% sequentially to Rs 47,500 crore, while adjusted profit attributable to shareholders climbed 16% year-on-year and 23% sequentially to about Rs 20,900 crore.

The oil-to-chemicals business did the heavy lifting. O2C EBITDA jumped 17% both sequentially and year-on-year to Rs 17,000 crore, helped by elevated fuel cracks, firmer petrochemical margins, and cheaper ethane feedstock, even as lower refinery throughput, higher freight costs, and fuel-marketing losses worked against it.

JPMorgan estimates fuel retailing alone dragged sequential EBITDA down by Rs 2,000-2,500 crore, meaning underlying O2C performance was stronger than the headline number suggests.

Morgan Stanley pegs Reliance’s refining margin at about $14.5 a barrel for the June quarter, 25% above the mid-cycle average, and notes that current industry spreads are running closer to $22 a barrel, which could support momentum into the September quarter.

Also Read: Reliance Posts Record Rs 23,196 Crore Profit in Q1 FY27, Jio IPO on the Horizon

Q1 FY27 Financial Snapshot

Jio: Brokerages’ Pick for RIL’s Next Profit Engine

While energy delivered the immediate earnings beat, brokerages expect Reliance Jio to carry earnings growth over the next two years. Motilal Oswal expects digital services to contribute around 85% of Reliance’s incremental consolidated EBITDA between FY26 and FY28.

Jio added 8.9 million subscribers during the quarter, taking its total subscriber base to 533.3 million, while average revenue per user rose to Rs 215.6. Motilal Oswal projects Jio’s revenue, EBITDA, and profit to grow at compound annual rates of roughly 14%, 17%, and 25% respectively through FY28, aided by tariff hikes and expansion in home broadband and enterprise services.

Ambit Capital expects Jio to lead an industry-wide tariff increase of around 15% in December 2026, following its anticipated public listing. The brokerage views the Jio Platforms IPO as more than a value-unlocking event, expecting the listing and subsequent tariff monetisation to validate Reliance’s platform-investment approach and help the group raise capital for newer bets such as data centres, deep tech, and new energy.

Jio Q1 FY27 Key Metrics

Retail Margins Face a Multi-Quarter Test

Reliance Retail’s June-quarter numbers show the flip side of the growth push. JioMart’s average daily grocery orders surged 116% year-on-year, but retail operating EBITDA actually fell about 2% as spending on hyperlocal delivery and digital commerce squeezed margins.

Goldman Sachs expects that margin pressure to continue for another three to four quarters as Reliance expands its dark-store network, works on faster delivery, and improves product availability, before shifting focus to profitability through larger basket sizes, private labels, and higher order density.

Rising finance costs added to the strain: consolidated finance costs jumped 27% sequentially, partly due to the full capitalisation of 5G network assets. Motilal Oswal has trimmed its FY27-FY28 profit estimates for Reliance Retail by 8-9% to account for higher depreciation and interest expenses.

What the Cash Flow Turn Means for RIL Investors

Ambit Capital frames the current phase as the start of an earnings upcycle, projecting RIL’s earnings per share to grow at a compound annual rate of 22% between FY26 and FY29, a sharp jump from just 3% during FY23-FY26.

The Rs 90,000 crore free cash flow estimate comes with a caveat: it largely assumes existing businesses keep performing while new bets are still being built out. Motilal Oswal’s projections do not yet factor in any meaningful near-term earnings contribution from Reliance’s new-energy, artificial intelligence, data-centre, or FMCG ventures, meaning the actual cash flow outcome could swing either way depending on how fast these newer businesses start contributing.

For now, the Strong Buy consensus from 28 analysts and RIL’s steady share price action suggest the market is leaning toward the optimistic reading of the RIL stock story.

NiftyTrader Desk View

RIL Stock Snapshot

FAQs

Q1. What is RIL’s share price today?

RIL was trading around Rs 1,279.60 on the NSE as of 12:01 pm on July 24, 2026, up 0.59% from the previous close of Rs 1,272.20.

Q2. How much free cash flow is Reliance expected to generate?

Motilal Oswal estimates cumulative free cash flow of around Rs 90,000 crore for Reliance between FY26 and FY28 as its capex cycle eases.

Q3. What drove RIL’s Q1 FY27 earnings growth?

The oil-to-chemicals segment led the beat, with EBITDA up 17% on stronger fuel cracks and petrochemical margins, while consolidated EBITDA grew 11% year-on-year overall.

Q4. Will Jio’s IPO affect mobile tariffs?

Ambit Capital expects Jio to lead an industry-wide tariff hike of around 15% in December 2026, following its anticipated stock market listing.

Q5. What is the current analyst view on RIL stock?

Of the 28 analysts tracked, 27 rate RIL a Buy or Strong Buy, with only one Sell rating, reflecting a Strong Buy mean recommendation. This is analyst sentiment, not investment advice.

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Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Analyst estimates, brokerage projections, and NiftyTrader’s Stock Score are indicative in nature and should not be interpreted as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or a guarantee of future returns. Please consult a registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.