MCX Shares Rise 4% as Jefferies Initiates ‘Buy’ Rating, Sees 27% Upside
MCX shares witnessed strong buying interest on Wednesday after global brokerage Jefferies initiated coverage with a bullish view, projecting up to 27% upside from current levels. The report has renewed investor confidence in India’s largest commodity exchange, with analysts betting that rising commodity trading volumes, new product launches and expanding market participation could fuel the company’s next phase of growth.
MCX shares rally after Jefferies begins coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating
Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) shares climbed as much as 5.49% during Wednesday’s trading session, touching an intraday high of Rs 2,993 on the NSE.
The stock later witnessed some profit booking but still ended the day at Rs 2,963, gaining 4.43%.
The rally came after Jefferies initiated coverage on MCX with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 3,600, implying an upside potential of nearly 27% from the previous closing price.
Track Live : MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA
Gold outshines as energy commodities remain under pressure
The MCX commodity market witnessed mixed trading on July 1, with precious metals outperforming while most base metals and energy contracts closed in the red.
- Gold (5 August 2026) rose 0.31% to ₹1,42,967.
- Cardamom slipped 0.06%.
- Lead declined 0.18%.
- Copper fell 0.38%.
- Silver lost 0.38%.
- Zinc declined 0.47%.
- Crude Oil dropped 0.65%.
- Natural Gas was the biggest loser, falling 1.92%.
- Revenue Expansion: Jefferies expects a 20% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in MCX’s revenue between FY26 and FY29.
- Turnover Growth: The brokerage predicts the average daily turnover for commodity options to grow at a 28% CAGR, and futures to expand at 5% CAGR from the current FY26 base.
- Monopoly Advantage: MCX commands a near 96% market share in the Indian commodity futures space, virtually locking down energy, base metals, and precious metals contracts.
- Institutional Backing: Sentiment was already reinforced earlier this week when UTI Mutual Fund executed a bulk deal to acquire 14.65 lakh shares of MCX at an average price of ₹2,899.23.
| Metric | Jefferies View |
|---|---|
| Rating | Buy |
| Target Price | ₹3,600 |
| Upside Potential | Around 27% |
| Revenue CAGR (FY26–FY29) | 20% |
| Earnings CAGR (FY26–FY29) | Around 22% |
| EBIT Margin Expansion | About 260 basis points |
| Dividend Outlook | Higher payouts backed by strong cash flows and low capex |
Why Jefferies is bullish on MCX
Jefferies believes MCX is well positioned to benefit from the long-term growth of India’s commodity derivatives market.
The brokerage expects commodity market participation to rise steadily over the coming years, while MCX is likely to maintain its dominant position in non-agricultural commodity derivatives.
According to the brokerage, average daily turnover in India’s commodity futures market could increase threefold over the next decade, while options turnover could expand nearly sixfold.
Jefferies also forecasts MCX’s revenue to grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between FY26 and FY29, supported by rising trading activity and new business opportunities.
“Penetration in India’s commodity derivatives market is expected to increase, with MCX continuing to enjoy a near-monopoly in non-agricultural contracts.”
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Gold dominates the list of top gainers
Gold contracts dominated the MCX gainers’ list as investors continued to prefer precious metals amid uncertainty over global economic and geopolitical developments.
The top gainers included:
| Commodity | Expiry | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 5 Aug 2026 | +0.41% |
| Gold Mini | 5 Aug 2026 | +0.39% |
| Gold Ten | 31 Jul 2026 | +0.31% |
| Gold Petal | 31 Jul 2026 | +0.31% |
| Gold Guinea | 31 Jul 2026 | +0.23% |
The broad-based gains across all gold contracts indicate sustained buying interest in precious metals.
Several new growth drivers could boost MCX earnings
Jefferies believes MCX has multiple opportunities to strengthen earnings beyond its core commodity trading business.
Some of the key growth drivers include:
- Coal exchange opportunities.
- Colocation services for traders.
- Participation of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in non-cash derivatives.
- Weekly options contracts.
- Expansion into battery metals and chemical contracts.
- Higher retail investor participation.
The brokerage estimates these initiatives could deliver an additional 15-20% upside to earnings over the medium term.
Another positive indicator is that only around 20% of NSE options traders currently participate in MCX options, leaving significant room for future growth.
Natural gas and crude oil lead commodity losers
Energy commodities remained under pressure throughout the session.
Natural Gas and its mini contract posted the sharpest declines, while crude oil also extended losses.
The major losers included:
| Commodity | Expiry | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical Demolition | 30 Jul 2026 | -2.26% |
| Natural Gas Mini | 28 Jul 2026 | -1.41% |
| Natural Gas | 28 Jul 2026 | -1.35% |
| Nickel | 15 Jul 2026 | -0.88% |
| Crude Oil Mini | 20 Jul 2026 | -0.65% |
| Crude Oil | 20 Jul 2026 | -0.60% |
| Silver 100 | 31 Jul 2026 | -0.53% |
| Zinc | 31 Jul 2026 | -0.48% |
| Copper | 31 Jul 2026 | -0.39% |
Weakness in crude oil followed easing concerns over global crude supplies after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of higher global production.
Strong cash flows could support higher dividends
Apart from business expansion, Jefferies highlighted MCX’s healthy balance sheet as another key strength.
The exchange continues to generate strong operating cash flows while maintaining a net cash position, giving it flexibility to reward shareholders through higher dividend payouts in the coming years.
The brokerage also expects MCX’s EBIT margin to improve by 260 basis points between FY26 and FY29.
According to Jefferies, operating leverage should offset higher technology investments and regulatory fees payable to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).
Here’s what happened today and why traders reacted
MCX shares rallied after Jefferies initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a Rs 3,600 price target.
The brokerage’s optimistic revenue forecasts, expectations of rising commodity market participation and confidence in MCX’s dominant market position triggered fresh buying interest in the stock.
Although the stock gave up part of its intraday gains due to profit booking, it still closed more than 4% higher, reflecting strong investor confidence.
What does this mean for the market and investors?
Jefferies’ bullish initiation reinforces confidence in companies benefiting from the structural growth of India’s capital markets.
As commodity derivatives gain wider acceptance among institutional and retail participants, MCX could remain one of the key beneficiaries of rising trading volumes and product innovation.
The report also highlights growing investor interest in exchange businesses, which generally enjoy scalable operations, strong cash generation and improving profitability as trading activity increases.
Should investors keep MCX on their watchlist?
For investors, MCX remains a stock to watch as India’s commodity derivatives market continues to evolve.
Its dominant market position, expanding product pipeline, improving operating margins and strong balance sheet provide multiple long-term growth drivers.
However, investors should also monitor trading volumes, regulatory developments, competition from new exchanges and the pace of new product launches, as these factors will influence whether MCX can achieve the growth projections outlined by Jefferies over the next few years.
